Grand National Trial Update

The scourge of ante-post betting is of course the dreaded non-runner. Monbeg Dude has been scratched from Saturday’s Haydock Grand National Trial because his scope was less than 100%. That’s thrown a spanner in the works but don’t rip up your ticket just yet, the meeting could yet be abandoned. At least we still have 8-1 about Hawkes Point who is now as short as 5-1 in places.

The most interesting development is the booking of Tony McCoy for our old friend Merry King. You may recall that we backed the horse each-way in the Hennessy (5th) and the Welsh National (5th). The old saying about follow them over a cliff springs to mind but it wouldn’t take a lot of improvement to win this.

On his last start he looked well beaten turning for home but then seemed to get his second wind and ran on to be a close third. That was with a first time visor and the jury is still out as to whether or not it helped. He is 4lbs better off with the winner Wychwoods Brook and it would seem daft not to include him each-way at 9-1.

Another old favourite of mine, Burton Port, was taken out along with Scottish National winner Godsmejudge. I would imagine that the likely heavy ground was the reason for both. I’ve seen a couple of speculative tips for Burton Port for the Grand National.

He is certainly well enough handicapped if he returned to the kind of form that enabled him to finish fourth in the Gold Cup. Unfortunately he hasn’t shown the slightest glimmer as yet this season but Donald McCain will do his best to rekindle the flame. I am not tempted in at this stage but he’s one to keep an eye on.

The other big weekend races, weather permitting, are the Ascot Chase and the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. I don’t think either will have much of a bearing on the Cheltenham festival, although it will be interesting to see Zarkandar in action against Melodic Rendezvous. Paul Nicholls is aiming Zarkandar at the World Hurdle this season but he’s racing at two miles for his prep.

Captain Chris ought to win the Ascot Chase as he’s meeting lower rated rivals at level weights. Many of those are under a cloud including Riverside Theatre and Medermit. If there is a horse capable of causing a surprise it is probably Rolling Aces. For whatever reason, he folded tamely last time out but had previously won at Down Royal and showed some decent form last year.

Merry King (each-way) at 9-1 Coral

Peter Marsh Chase Preview

Wedding Ring (5-2) and Emirates Flyer (4-1) gave us a very profitable day at Meydan on Thursday. Wedding Ring earned a 25-1 quote for the 1000 Guineas, although I still rate her below stable companion Ihtimal for the fillies’ classic. Perhaps Godolphin mean business this season after the nightmare of 2013.

It’s a far cry from Dubai to Haydock on a saturated Saturday but the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase is our next big race preview. My regular readers will know that I’ve been following Merry King and I’m giving him a third and final chance here. He ran well enough in the Hennessy to finish fifth to Triolo D’Alene, seemingly being outpaced in the home straight after closing up turning for home.

That looked a decent enough trial for the Welsh National but he produced an almost identical performance. He jumped safely and moved on to the heels of the leaders three out but made no further progress, again having to settle for fifth place. Jonjo O’Neill is sticking a first-time visor on him on Saturday, he’s run well at the track before and looks worth another chance at 11-2 or thereabouts.

I’m also going to support Aintree winner Chance Du Roy at 10-1 with Coral. That looks like outstanding each-way value with the Philip Hobbs stable in great form at present. The form of the Becher Chase is nothing to shout about with the veteran Baby Run in second but Mr Moonshine (3rd) did win convincingly at Musselburgh next time.

Vino Griego is top weight, although Joshua Moore takes off a handy 3lbs. He bolted up at Sandown but I’m just not sure how he will run at Haydock. He’s handled Ascot and Cheltenham well enough in the past but can be a bit awkward at his fences and he may not like some of these big black obstacles.

Venetia Williams runs Katenko who is trying to work his way back to form after suffering an injury last season. I felt that everyone got rather carried away by talking about him as a Gold Cup horse and I’d like to have seen more from him when he trailed home behind Unioniste at Aintree.

Vintage Star was just behind Merry King at Chepstow but I’ll be disappointed if the O’Neill horse can’t beat him here whilst Sydney Paget dropped out tamely at Wetherby. It wasn’t a great Rowland Meyrick by any means and perhaps Sydney Paget was flattered by his wide margin win over course and distance previously.

Merry King 11-2 Coral

Chance Du Roy 10-1 Coral

Welsh National Ante-Post Update

There are two things that keep racing fans going during the Christmas break. One is the King George and the other is the Welsh National.

I’ve always been a great fan of the Chepstow race and have backed a few winners over the years. It’s a very demanding race, usually run in bottomless ground and suits dour stayers. A couple of weeks ago I suggested Merry King at 14-1 for the race after he had run a fair fifth in the Hennessy Gold Cup.

Jonjo O’Neill keeps his cards close to his chest but he still seems to be heading for Wales and the Hennessy form was given a minor boost when Theatre Guide ran well at Cheltenham. He was second to last year’s winner Monbeg Dude but looked to be going best for most of the race and possibly ran too freely for his own good.

I am now going to back up my investment by taking the 12-1 about Well Refreshed, a confirmed starter for Gary Moore. This horse has a habit of clouting one or two fences but Chepstow is about as forgiving as you can get and he loves the mud.

Last season he improved out of all recognition, winning the Sussex National in a bog at Plumpton by 28 lengths and dishing out another thrashing to his rivals at Haydock. That was in the Grand National Trial where he just about up-rooted the last but was strong enough to stay on his feet.

The Moore stable did us a favour with Sire De Grugy in the Tingle Creek recently and they must have a great chance of adding another big prize here. Take the 12-1 on offer with Bet365 as I’m sure he will start at less than half of those odds.

The market still contains several horses with multiple entries and anyone who has backed Sydney Paget, Silver By Nature or Nuts N Bolts will be biting their finger nails at the moment. Their respective trainers have hinted at alternative engagements over Christmas and the betting could be in for a shake-up.

I am not convinced by Goonyella’s position at the head of the market whilst Tidal Bay and Teaforthree are likely to be anchored by their big weights. Highland Lodge is a threat on his fine run in the Hennessy but I still fancy Merry King to get the better of him over this longer trip.

Well Refreshed 12-1 Bet365

*Merry King 14-1 Coral