Tag: Warwick

Horse Racing Preview February 7th

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It’s all systems go for a cracking Newbury card on Saturday with the Betfair Hurdle supported by the reappearance of champion chaser Sire de Grugy.

We previewed the Betfair Hurdle last month and our ante-post selections have both made the final line-up. Activial (tipped at 10-1) has been trained for the race and I see no reason to desert him at this late stage. It could be argued that he is badly weighted with Calipto on novice form but I think the favourite has a few quirks and I’m prepared to oppose him.

Vasco Du Ronceray (tipped at 33-1) is currently showing at 75-1 on Betfair and seems virtually friendless in the market. Whether that is because Barry Geraghty has chosen to ride Sign Of A Victory I am not sure but Peter Carberry claims 3lbs and it wouldn’t be impossible for him to make the frame. There don’t seem to be any natural front-runners in the field so I can see the field packed up turning for home and there could be some hard-luck stories.

As expected, Vibrato Valtat has headed to Warwick for the Kingmaker Chase rather than take on Sire de Grugy in the Game Spirit. That leaves the improving Mr Mole as his most likely danger and even still looks a good price about the popular chestnut. Gary Moore obviously won’t have him at 100% for this but I’d be disappointed if he wasn’t fit enough to win. Hopefully he can take this and set up the three-way clash with Sprinter Sacre and Dodging Bullets in the Champion Chase next month.

The Denman Chase is a tricky one with question marks against several of the runners. Houblon Des Obeaux ran a cracker in the Hennessy in November but has been beaten since while Taquin Du Seuil, Harry Topper and Double Ross have all been out of sorts. Unioniste is not quick by any stretch of the imagination while Coneygree has done nothing wrong since returning from injury. It may be between the pair with the Nicholls runner narrowly preferred.

Over at Warwick, Vibrato Valtat takes on the game front-runner Top Gamble in the Kingmaker Chase. The race is perfectly set up for the grey to get a nice lead through the race and challenge at the last. Glens Melody should be able to win the Mares’ Hurdle for a second consecutive year without Mischievous Miss in attendance. The Irish mare produced a great run at the Cheltenham festival behind Quevega and nothing else in the field can boast form at that level.

Vibrato Valtat 2.05 Warwick @6-5 Bet Victor

Unioniste 2.25 Newbury @4-1 Coral

Glens Melody 2.40 Warwick @Evens Bet365

Sire de Grugy 3.0 Newbury @10-11 Sky Bet

Activial 3.35 Newbury @10-1 ante-post

Vasco Du Ronceray @33-1 ante-post, 75-1 Betfair

Horse Racing Preview January 10th

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A nice double on the all-weather at Lingfield on Friday (Don’t Be and Sabre Rock, both tipped at 9-4) paid over 10-1 to set us up nicely for the weekend.

Channel 4 cameras are at Kempton and Warwick for some good quality National Hunt racing, although winners may be hard to find. Nicky Henderson made fools of ante-post punters by pulling Dawalan out of the Lanzarote Hurdle with Barry Geraghty now switching to Hammersly Lake. I have not seen any explanation in the media but I’ve gone back to the race for a second look and believe Saffron Wells could give us a run for our money.

He has got in here on a light weight after running a cracker at Newbury when trying to concede almost a stone to Polamco. That horse is an improving stayer and the pair were separated by the Paul Nicholls-trained Morito Du Berlais, a good yard stick in staying handicaps this season. Saffron Wells like to get his toe in and will have perfect conditions on Saturday.

I had considered supporting Heath Hunter but I see that Tom Scudamore has elected to ride Dell’ Arca instead. Heath Hunter showed up well for a long way at Haydock last time but the application of first time blinkers suggests that David Pipe thinks he has his own ideas about the game.

Kilcooley has been hammered by the handicapper for his 23-length win at Haydock and I have more regard for Tea For Two, the mount of Lizzie Kelly. The gelding won with plenty in hand at Towcester and does not look harshly treated for his handicap debut.

Shotgun Paddy was our midweek selection for the Warwick Classic Chase as he bids to repeat last year’s victory. He has to carry top weight of 11st 12lb so it is difficult to be confident in such a testing race.

This is a big year for Godolphin after a poor season in 2014. Charlie Appleby already has a number of his string in action on the all-weather and it could be worth noting his runners at Lingfield on Saturday. Magical Effect looks a ready-made winner in the 12.20 after finishing second at Wolverhampton in October.

The son of New Approach can get off the mark here while Turning Times should make it a double in the handicap at 3.10. The daughter of Pivotal is a bit of a rarity in that she is a roan racing in the Godolphin blue. She won her maiden here in August after a couple of decent efforts at Kempton.

Saffron Wells 2.40 Kempton @12-1 Paddy Power

Shotgun Paddy 3.35 Warwick @9-1

Each-way 1/4 odds, 1,2,3

Magical Effect 12.10 Lingfield

Turning Times 3.10 Lingfield @15-8 Paddy Power

Warwick Classic Chase Preview

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The big steeplechase this weekend is the Warwick Classic Chase, due off at 3.35 on Saturday. The race is over three miles and five furlongs and the going is expected to be very testing.

Shotgun Paddy did this column a good turn last year and bids for a repeat win under top weight of 11st 12lb. On the face of it, he has a stiff task but he is actually racing off only a 2lbs higher mark than last season.

Emma Lavelle’s eight-year-old can get very low at some of his fences but he was able to get away with ploughing through the last fence before beating Carruthers by six lengths. The runner-up ran a cracker that day but is surely getting a little long in the tooth for a competitive race such as this.

Shotgun Paddy came within a quarter of a length of winning at the Cheltenham Festival last March when just failing to catch Midnight Prayer.  Lavelle had no hesitation in nominating the Welsh National as his early season target but everything went wrong at Chepstow. He lost his position early on and then slithered on landing over the second fence. Jockey Leighton Aspell pulled him up before the seventh fence when it was clear that he was not going to get involved.

Daryl Jacob takes over in the saddle on Saturday and he remains a very promising young chaser. The fences do not take a great deal of jumping around here and he looks good each-way value at 8-1.

The early favourite is the novice chaser Return Spring, trained by Philip Hobbs. He was useful over hurdles last season, winning at Cheltenham in November. This will be only the fourth chase of his career after finishing third to Kings Palace last time. His jumping was a bit sketchy that day, although he does have a similar profile to Shotgun Paddy from a year ago.

West End Rocker is now thirteen years of age but won at Lingfield in December. He is up 4lbs and Cheltenham winner Benbane Head carries an 8lbs penalty. Hawkes Point was fancied for the Welsh National after finishing second in the race in 2013 but was under pressure a long way from home and was eventually pulled up. He is difficult to fancy on that evidence and I shall stick with Shotgun Paddy in the hope that he can defy top weight.

Shotgun Paddy @8-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Warwick Saturday Preview

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Earlier this week I previewed the Warwick Classic Chase and picked out Shotgun Paddy with a saver on Any Currency. There does not seem to have been a great amount of business on the race so far as the bookies are still going 7-1 the field.

I you haven’t got involved yet, the 8-1 about Shotgun Paddy looks tempting. His stamina in the heavy ground is the unknown factor but he still looks the horse with the most progressive profile here. Any Currency can still be supported at 25-1 but only he will know whether he is in the mood on Saturday. He is not in the “Mad Moose” category but he looks as though he needs a bit of kidology.

I am going to add Royale Knight at 11-1 (each-way) as I’m concerned that the going will prove too testing for several of these. If you saw Royale Knight’s latest win, his jockey was looking between his legs for dangers all the way up the straight. He has gone up for that win and races from out of the handicap but Brendan Powell in the saddle is a bonus and I can see him running well.

The Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle at 3.00 could go the way of Deputy Dan. He runs in the same colours as Puffin Billy and thank goodness that horse survived a bout of colic recently. It is hoped that Puffin Billy will return as a novice chaser next term but Oliver Sherwood looks to have a ready-made replacement in Deputy Dan.

When he was beaten by Champagne West here in December it looked no more than an average novice event but the winner has since gone on to land a big gamble in a handicap. Deputy Dan then came out and trounced his rivals in the mud at Chepstow on Welsh National day. He will certainly have similar conditions tomorrow and rates a good bet at 4-1.

You have to respect Rathvinden from the Mullins stable and he is the obvious danger. Masters Hill was probably flattered by his second to Kings Parade at Cheltenham but holds Potters Cross on that form. Killala Quay and Creepy have both won races this season but I’m optimistic that Deputy Dan can win again in his favoured ground.

The Pertemps qualifier sees African Gold return to hurdling after a couple of disastrous runs over fences. Last season he looked the sort of horse that wanted a fence so I won’t be rushing to take the 4 or 5-1 about him defying top weight here. I’m going to take a chance on Drop Out Joe handing the heavy ground at 9-1. He was unlucky to lose out in a photo finish last time and has a rounded action that suggests he will go on this surface. We shall soon find out!

Drop Out Joe at 9-1 BetVictor

Deputy Dan at 4-1 Bet365

Royale Knight at 11-1 Boylesports

Warwick Classic Chase Preview

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The Warwick Classic Chase is a race similar to the Welsh National in that it often requires a real slogger to see out the marathon trip. I remember backing old Moorcroft Boy to win this many moons ago with his limitless stamina and love of heavy ground. He duly obliged and I thought he was going to make me rich in the 1994 Grand National when he jumped into the lead before Dunwoody galvanised Miinnehoma for a final effort.

This week’s race will take place in heavy ground so the same rules apply. Having gone through the runners a couple of times, it is hard to pinpoint one that you could safely call a mud lark. I suppose you would have to consider Boyfromnowhere one of those least likely to be inconvenienced by the going after his gutsy win at Fontwell. My problem with that race was that the form looks extremely moderate and this is an altogether tougher task.

It is always tempting to go with class in this type of event and the one that stands out is Shotgun Paddy. He is only a novice but has been racing against a really good sort in Black Thunder. He would have given him a tough race last time had he not clattered the second last and handed the initiative to the Nicholls runner. I’ve no idea whether he will see out the last three-quarters of a mile if the going continues to deteriorate but it’s worth taking a chance at 7-1.

Willie Mullins has taken out On His Own and relies on Vesper Bell. This one travelled over for the Becher Chase and made a hasty exit at the first fence. If that experience hasn’t knocked his confidence, he is one of those with form in this type of ground and has to be respected but it is effectively his first race of the season.

I cannot see the 2011 Hennessy Gold Cup winner Carruthers winning under top weight on his first start of the year whilst Hey Big Spender and Master Overseer are difficult to catch right. I was looking forward to a good campaign for Same Difference this year but he has been lifeless in his first two races. If he were to bounce back to his best he would definitely be in with a shout but I cannot support him until he improves.

I’m also going to put up Any Currency as an each-way alternative after his excellent run at Cheltenham in December. That came in the Cross Country race won by Sire Collonges. He obviously takes a bit of knowing and needs to be kidded along so he is as likely to be pulled up as win. At 20-1 he is worth a small saver.

Shotgun Paddy at 7-1 William Hill

Any Currency (each-way) at 20-1 Boylesports

Racing Preview Wednesday 20th November

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There is a fascinating clash between two very promising novice hurdlers on an otherwise moderate card at Warwick on Wednesday. Garde La Victoire and Gone Too Far are both on a hat-trick and have been impressive in their most recent outings.

Garde La Victoire was in front from the fifth flight at Aintree and held off subsequent Plumpton scorer Regal Encore by two and a quarter lengths. The runner-up was given a lot to do that day but Garde La Victoire kept pulling out extra on the run-in and is highly regarded by the Hobbs stable. He can keep the JP McManus colours at bay again here.

The all-weather flat racing continues in the background and I’m putting up Elysian Prince as tomorrow’s nap selection. Paul Cole’s juvenile was having only his second start when bolting up over course and distance in September.

That marked a considerable improvement on his debut when only ninth of twelve at Goodwood and he looks capable of defying top weight in the six-runner nursery at 1.00. I looked at Blessington in the 2.30 but his last run has left just too many question marks for my liking. Having finished second at Ascot on his belated seasonal debut, he flopped badly in heavy ground at Newbury in October. In all likelihood it was simply a case of his not being able to handle the surface but it is difficult to support a horse beaten 78 lengths on his most recent outing!

Graphic has done us proud with two victories and a place in the Cambridgeshire and I see no reason to desert this improving sort at Kempton tomorrow. He’s a course and distance winner and looked better than ever when sluicing through the mud to beat Breton Rock at Nottingham last time out.

His last victory came off a rating of 102 but the handicapper has now raised him to 110. That just about makes him the best horse in the field for this listed race ahead of Tullius (109), Sirius Prospect (105) and Bertiewhittle (102). Jamie Spencer takes the ride on Graphic tomorrow and he can be yet another for the prolific William Haggas.

Elysian Prince 1.00 Lingfield 6-4 Bet365

Garde La Victoire 2.50 Warwick

Graphic 6.30 Kempton 5-2 Bet365