Tag: Activial

Cheltenham Preview Wednesday 11th March

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Day 1 of the Cheltenham festival was all about Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh but the second day provides the best quality race of the week in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Three previous winners line up including Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy, two of the most popular chasers in training. Sprinter Sacre’s long road to recovery has been well documented but there have to be doubts about whether he can possibly be as good as he was two years ago.

Sire de Grugy’s preparation did not go exactly to plan either but he looked as good as ever when winning at Chepstow last month. We went for Champagne Fever in our ante-post preview and you cannot discount anything from the Mullins stable this week. The meeting has not started so well for Nicky Henderson and I just have reservations about Sprinter Sacre. A saver on Sire de Grugy is advised and hopefully all will come back safe and sound.

The action gets under way at 1.30 with the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle and I’m surprised to see that the field has cut up to just ten starters. The Mullins and Walsh combination are at the helm yet again with Nichols Canyon but there may be better value in another former flat racer, Parlour Games. He was useful in his days with Godolphin and travelled really well when winning here previously. He has Tony McCoy in the saddle and will be among the last to throw down a challenge.

Don Poli has been all the rage for the RSA Chase since it was confirmed that Coneygree will run in the Gold Cup instead. I like Kings Palace but I was so disappointed with his effort here last year that I am concerned about a repeat.

Nicky Henderson could run his own race from his Coral Cup entries alone with seven set to start at 2.40. I think Bear’s Affair could prove the pick of them with 7lbs claimer Freddie Mitchell in the saddle. He has run well on both of his previous starts and the claim gives him a sporting chance. I am also a fan of Activial who finally gets a longer trip after good efforts in the top two-mile events.

The Cross Country Chase comprises of the usual suspects but Philip Hobbs relies on Duke Of Lucca in the absence of Balthazar King. He loves good ground and seems to have been granted his wish so could go well at an each-way price.

In the Fred Winter Hurdle, Arabian Revolution is an interesting contender for the Parlour Games team in first-time blinkers. He came up against a smart sort in Beltor at Ludlow and should give us a run for our money. Hobbs seems a bit sceptical about the chances of Wait For Me in the closing bumper, presumably  fearing the Mullins’ battalions. He may still be worth each-way support at around 14-1.

1.30 Parlour Games @6-1 William Hill

2.05 Don Poli @21-10 BetBright

2.40 Activial @10-1 Paddy Power (each-way)

2.40 Bear’s Affair @28-1 Paddy Power (each-way)

3.20 Sire de Grugy @10-1 Racebets*

*new customers only max. £10 stake

3.20 Champagne Fever @6-1 888Sport

4.00 Duke Of Lucca @7-1 Bet365 (each-way)

4.40 Arabian Revolution @11.0 Betway (each-way)

Horse Racing Preview February 7th

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It’s all systems go for a cracking Newbury card on Saturday with the Betfair Hurdle supported by the reappearance of champion chaser Sire de Grugy.

We previewed the Betfair Hurdle last month and our ante-post selections have both made the final line-up. Activial (tipped at 10-1) has been trained for the race and I see no reason to desert him at this late stage. It could be argued that he is badly weighted with Calipto on novice form but I think the favourite has a few quirks and I’m prepared to oppose him.

Vasco Du Ronceray (tipped at 33-1) is currently showing at 75-1 on Betfair and seems virtually friendless in the market. Whether that is because Barry Geraghty has chosen to ride Sign Of A Victory I am not sure but Peter Carberry claims 3lbs and it wouldn’t be impossible for him to make the frame. There don’t seem to be any natural front-runners in the field so I can see the field packed up turning for home and there could be some hard-luck stories.

As expected, Vibrato Valtat has headed to Warwick for the Kingmaker Chase rather than take on Sire de Grugy in the Game Spirit. That leaves the improving Mr Mole as his most likely danger and even still looks a good price about the popular chestnut. Gary Moore obviously won’t have him at 100% for this but I’d be disappointed if he wasn’t fit enough to win. Hopefully he can take this and set up the three-way clash with Sprinter Sacre and Dodging Bullets in the Champion Chase next month.

The Denman Chase is a tricky one with question marks against several of the runners. Houblon Des Obeaux ran a cracker in the Hennessy in November but has been beaten since while Taquin Du Seuil, Harry Topper and Double Ross have all been out of sorts. Unioniste is not quick by any stretch of the imagination while Coneygree has done nothing wrong since returning from injury. It may be between the pair with the Nicholls runner narrowly preferred.

Over at Warwick, Vibrato Valtat takes on the game front-runner Top Gamble in the Kingmaker Chase. The race is perfectly set up for the grey to get a nice lead through the race and challenge at the last. Glens Melody should be able to win the Mares’ Hurdle for a second consecutive year without Mischievous Miss in attendance. The Irish mare produced a great run at the Cheltenham festival behind Quevega and nothing else in the field can boast form at that level.

Vibrato Valtat 2.05 Warwick @6-5 Bet Victor

Unioniste 2.25 Newbury @4-1 Coral

Glens Melody 2.40 Warwick @Evens Bet365

Sire de Grugy 3.0 Newbury @10-11 Sky Bet

Activial 3.35 Newbury @10-1 ante-post

Vasco Du Ronceray @33-1 ante-post, 75-1 Betfair

Betfair Hurdle Ante-post Preview

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The Betfair Hurdle has always been one of the top handicap hurdles of the season. It is still fondly remembered by the older generation as “The Schweppes” and has since been equally acclaimed as the Tote Gold Trophy.

The race is often won by a high-class hurdler with names like Deep Sensation, Large Action, Mysilv, Make A Stand and Landing Light bringing back fond memories. More recently the race was won by Zarkandar and My Tent Or Yours, both Champion Hurdle class.

The quality of entry does not look quite up to that grade this year with Garde La Victoire topping the weights ahead of the veteran Get Me Out Of Here and Nicky Henderson’s Sign Of A Victory. Henderson has won this race five times and Sign Of A Victory is one of five entries from the Lambourn yard.

His latest press conference suggested that Sign Of A Victory would run provided the going is not soft but I’d have to say that seems unlikely. He does not believe that Snake Eyes will get into the race but put in a good word for Haydock winner Vasco Du Ronceray. The six-year-old is not exactly thrown in at the weights having been raised 8lbs for his latest success but still has scope for improvement.

He finished fifth in the Triumph Hurdle in 2013, the year of the ill-fated Our Conor. He wore a hood for the first time that day and carried the headgear when winning easily at Haydock in November. The grey could be worth an each-way bet at 33-1, a price that would soon disappear if Henderson’s main fancy were to be withdrawn.

I also like the claims of Activial, trained by Harry Fry. He is very lightly-raced having swerved the festival meeting in March in favour of Aintree. I was disappointed with his run there when only eighth to Guitar Pete but he showed his true form in the Ladbroke. He was well-fancied for the Ascot race and looked to have every chance until fitness told in the closing stages. Fry believes that he may eventually prove better at two and a half miles but Newbury’s long galloping straight should be ideal. He is still available at 10-1 in places.

The ante-post favourite is Calipto, trained by Paul Nicholls. He was unlucky in last year’s Triumph Hurdle when his rider’s stirrup leather broke and finished ahead of Activial at Aintree. He may have raced too keenly when beaten at Cheltenham in October and has been well backed for this race. He still holds a Champion Hurdle entry but I think any value has gone at around 5-1.

Activial @10-1 888Sport, Sportingbet

Vasco Du Ronceray @33-1 Betfair

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Aintree Day 1 Preview

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The Grand National meeting kicks off on Thursday with some top quality action. As always, there are plenty of Cheltenham winners on display and many more on a retrieval mission from last month’s festival.

The Aintree Hurdle should go the way of unlucky Champion Hurdle third The New One. I was never quite convinced by all the pre-race hype surrounding this horse at the festival as it was always in my mind that two miles is on the sharp side. His chances were dealt a hammer blow by the sad demise of Our Conor immediately in front of him and he ran on courageously to take third.

Rock On Ruby looked like a fish out of water over the larger obstacles and should enjoy being back over hurdles here. I expect him to give The New One most to do but neither is betting material.

We picked out Dynaste at 5-2 earlier in the week and he should give us a run for our money in the 6-runner Betfred Bowl. He has course and distance winning form, as does Silviniaco Conti, but the grey may just have too much speed on this track.

Our first bet on the card is for Activial in the opener. I backed him at non-runner – no bet terms for the Triumph Hurdle as it was always on the cards that Harry Fry would wait for this. He looked a smart hurdler at Kempton and I expect him to have improved enough to gain revenge on Newbury conqueror Calipto.

You have to respect Guitar Pete after another fine effort at Cheltenham and Aurore D’Estruval is another talented performer in a fascinating opener. The Triumph did not look the strongest this year and I expect Activial to come out on top.

The last race looks impossible at first glance but the Irish raider Busty Brown looks well weighted. The eight-year-old was not disgraced over a shorter trip behind Sailors Warn last time and has been placed in Grade 1 races in the past.

It is a tightly congested handicap with only 12lbs covering the entire field and Paul Carberry will have to be at his best to weave his way through 22 runners. Noel Meade doesn’t waste his time sending over horses that have no chance so I’m taking the early 12-1 and hoping for a good run. If the heavens open, have a saver on Kaylif Aramis at 14-1.

2.00 Activial at 4-1 Bet365

2.30 Dynaste at 5-2* Ante-post

5.25 Busty Brown at 12-1 Bet365

Cheltenham ante-post update

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With the weights now out for the eleven handicap races at the Cheltenham festival, it is time to seek out a bit of early value. That is easier said than done with over 1,000 entries to wade through and the situation is further complicated with so many fancied runners not certain to get a run.

One horse that I have been following from the flat is Space Ship, now trained in Ireland. He was a good handicapper for John Gosden and is slowly improving over hurdles after three races. His flat form suggests that he will improve for a faster surface after failing to pick up in the soft ground that he has recently encountered.

The race for him is the Fred Winter and he can be backed at 16-1 (non-runner/no bet) with Bet365. He looked set to win at Gowran Park last time but just got stuck in the ground between the last two.

Another horse that I have been hoping to catch right is Cause Of Causes. He was just short of Champion Hurdle class last season but won the Ladbroke Hurdle in great style and has been slow to learn his new career over fences. JP McManus bought him last year and he’s come close in his two starts.

Whilst he can hardly be said to have crept in under the radar, his chase rating is still 7lbs less than his official figure over hurdles. The big problem is that he has no less than seven festival entries! My own preference (and that’s all it is) is for the Byrne Group Plate in which he has a featherweight 10st 4lb to carry. 12-1 (NR-No bet) seems worth a bet although the odds aren’t that great that I’ve even picked the right race!

I’m also going to take the 10-1 about Activial for the Triumph Hurdle. The offer of NR/No bet takes out the risk factor while Harry Fry debates whether to keep him for Aintree. I was impressed with his Kempton victory in a race that regularly throws up genuine Triumph contenders and I would estimate his chances at around 6 or 7-1 if he gets the go-ahead. He’ll give us a strong team with our ante-post wager on Le Rocher (14-1).

Space Ship at 16-1 (Fred Winter) Bet365*

Cause Of Causes at 12-1 (Byrne Group Plate) Bet365*

Activial at 10-1 (Triumph Hurdle) Bet365*

*All non-runner – no bet