Tag: Philip Hobbs

Warwick Classic Chase Preview

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The big steeplechase this weekend is the Warwick Classic Chase, due off at 3.35 on Saturday. The race is over three miles and five furlongs and the going is expected to be very testing.

Shotgun Paddy did this column a good turn last year and bids for a repeat win under top weight of 11st 12lb. On the face of it, he has a stiff task but he is actually racing off only a 2lbs higher mark than last season.

Emma Lavelle’s eight-year-old can get very low at some of his fences but he was able to get away with ploughing through the last fence before beating Carruthers by six lengths. The runner-up ran a cracker that day but is surely getting a little long in the tooth for a competitive race such as this.

Shotgun Paddy came within a quarter of a length of winning at the Cheltenham Festival last March when just failing to catch Midnight Prayer.  Lavelle had no hesitation in nominating the Welsh National as his early season target but everything went wrong at Chepstow. He lost his position early on and then slithered on landing over the second fence. Jockey Leighton Aspell pulled him up before the seventh fence when it was clear that he was not going to get involved.

Daryl Jacob takes over in the saddle on Saturday and he remains a very promising young chaser. The fences do not take a great deal of jumping around here and he looks good each-way value at 8-1.

The early favourite is the novice chaser Return Spring, trained by Philip Hobbs. He was useful over hurdles last season, winning at Cheltenham in November. This will be only the fourth chase of his career after finishing third to Kings Palace last time. His jumping was a bit sketchy that day, although he does have a similar profile to Shotgun Paddy from a year ago.

West End Rocker is now thirteen years of age but won at Lingfield in December. He is up 4lbs and Cheltenham winner Benbane Head carries an 8lbs penalty. Hawkes Point was fancied for the Welsh National after finishing second in the race in 2013 but was under pressure a long way from home and was eventually pulled up. He is difficult to fancy on that evidence and I shall stick with Shotgun Paddy in the hope that he can defy top weight.

Shotgun Paddy @8-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Taunton Wednesday Preview

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The pick of the National Hunt action comes from Taunton on Wednesday with a six-race card starting at 1.40.

The first race is a three-mile maiden hurdle restricted to five-year-olds and upwards so it is no surprise to see some real chasing types set to line up. The Chuckmeister won a point-to-point in Ireland and has now joined the Paul Nicholls stable. He is related to an old favourite of mine in Moorcroft Boy, a gallant winner of the Scottish National. He may not reach those heights but he jumps and stays and can get the better of Local Show who has shown decent form in similar events.

Vago Collonges will be a popular fancy to score for the same stable in the following novices’ hurdle at 2.10. He would be a certainty if able to reproduce his 2013 Champion Bumper form at Aintree but he has proved to be very frustrating since. Nicholls is applying the hood for the first time on Wednesday but I am sticking with the hat-trick seeking Rock The Kasbah.

He represents the Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson team and looks a very straight-forward ride. He tracked the leaders last time before picking them up in the home straight and winning nicely.

The handicap chase at 2.40 brings together a couple of horses that arguably should have won last time out but for their jumping. Pinkneys Pride loomed up on the outside full of running at Wincanton and looked unfortunate to knuckle on landing. He had raced very keenly and got close to a couple of fences but he was entitled to after a lengthy lay-off.

The danger is Alan King’s Money For Nothing who ploughed through the second-last here behind Un Ajou in December. He was slow at the last three fences and it didn’t look the greatest race in the world so I’m siding with the top weight, Pinkneys Pride.

David Pipe can land the handicap hurdle at 3.10 with the grey Bladoun. I don’t like backing horses that have been clobbered by the handicapper and this one is up 13lbs. However, Tom Scudamore had practically pulled him up before the line and he was higher in the handicap a couple of seasons ago. You could make a case for several of the others but I am most fearful of Mr Fitzroy who produced a 25-1 shock at Lingfield and is only up 5lbs.

The Chuckmeister 1.40 @2-1 Betfair

Rock The Kasbah 2.10 @4-5 Betfair

Pinkneys Pride 2.40 @5-2 Coral

Bladoun 3.10 @15-8 Paddy Power

Sandown Tolworth Hurdle Day Preview

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Splash Of Ginge was one of three winners for us at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and attention now turns to the Tolworth Hurdle card at Sandown on Saturday.

The feature race has a very disappointing turn-out of just four runners, one of which pulled up at Plumpton on his most recent outing over two years ago. That is a pretty abysmal entry for a £22,000 event and the odds-on favourite is Nicky Henderson’s L’Ami Serge. He was very impressive at Newbury but was presented the race at Ascot last time when Emerging Talent fell two out. It was too early to say whether he would have won but L’Ami Serge is clearly an above average novice.

I have followed the career of Aurore D’Estruval with interest and John Quinn’s five-year-old should have the class to win the 12.40. The only question mark is the distance as she steps up to two and a half miles for the first time. I would be more concerned if the going was heavy but she can take this at the expense of the consistent Mischievous Milly.

William’s Wishes was a smart chaser a couple of seasons ago for Evan Williams but has obviously had his problems since. He showed that he may be on the way back when a respectable sixth in the Tingle Creek last time out. He has Mr Mole and Brick Red to beat, first and second at Exeter last month.

I like the chances of Song Light in the 3.00 despite a hefty 10lbs hike in the weights. The gelding was a close third in a very competitive race at Cheltenham in November and was never going to get caught at Huntingdon last time. Kevin Jones rode him in both races and takes a valuable 7lbs off here, allowing him to race off just 10st 5lb. I fear the Paul Nicholls-trained Bouvreuil most of all, a French import at the foot of the weights having his first run for the yard.

The closing race looks no easier to solve but it may be worth sticking with hat-trick seeking Bertie Boru. Not many meetings go by without a Philip Hobbs winner and this eight-year-old has got up late in both of his starts this season. He looked to have no chance jumping the last at Newbury but wore down Phone Home in the shadow of the post. The runner-up ran moderately last week but Bertie Boru should give us a run for our money.

Aurore D’Estruval 12.40 @5-4 Ladbrokes

William’s Wishes 1.50 @7-2 Coral

L’Ami Serge 2.25 @1-2 Bet365

Song Light 3.00 @6-1 Paddy Power

Bertie Boru 3.35 @9-1 BetVictor

Becher Chase Preview

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The Becher Chase at Aintree on Saturday has attracted a large field for the first big event over the famous Grand National fences this season.

The going is soft so the three and a quarter miles will provide a thorough test of stamina. The conditions were similar a year ago when Chance Du Roy held off the veteran Baby Run by a length. The Philip Hobbs stable is in fantastic form at present and Chance Du Roy must have an excellent chance of repeating his victory.

The ten-year-old was never travelling before being pulled up at Haydock in January but a return visit to Aintree was always his aim. He finished fourth at Ascot to Restless Harry in February and then ran a tremendous race in the Grand National, making headway towards the leaders before fading into sixth place behind Pineau De Re.

He also finished runner-up here to Always Waining in the Topham in 2012 so Tom O’Brien will be hoping for another good spin from the son of Morespeed this weekend. He is set to race off a 6lbs higher mark than last year but course form counts for at least that much over these fences.

Goonyella travelled over from Ireland for the Welsh National last December but finished a moderate eighth. He also finished seventh in the Irish National and Jim Dreaper is hoping that he takes to these fences with a view to returning in April. He stays all day but may struggle to go the early pace in such a huge field.

Gordon Elliott’s Balbriggan won over hurdles at Sedgefield before winning the valuable Troytown Chase at Navan last month. The grey has been raised 10lbs for that victory and may just be lacking a little experience for a tough race like this.

Mendip Express should go well for Harry Fry after winning a novices’ hurdle easily on his seasonal reappearance. He looked a very promising staying chaser last season before being soundly beaten by Smad Place at Newbury. He then jumped poorly before being pulled up in the Scottish National and has been dropped 3lbs in the handicap.

The Package has been round here a few times for David Pipe but put up a laboured performance at Cheltenham last time. Stable companion Our Father was favourite for the Hennessy Gold Cup last year but made no progress from four out and finished a disappointing seventh. He unseated his rider at the Canal Turn in the National so has plenty to prove.

One who did run to form in last year’s Hennessy was Emma Lavelle’s Highland Lodge. He made a gallant attempt to make most of the running and plugged on into fourth place. The form was given a boost last week by Merry King and Houblon Des Obeaux (fifth and sixth) who finished third and second respectively in this year’s renewal. Highland Lodge raced off 136 that day and is now 4lbs lower. He ran an encouraging race to finish fifth at Chepstow in October and could go well under Andrew Thornton.

Chance Du Roy @10-1 Ladbrokes

Highland Lodge @16-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Cheltenham Saturday Preview

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It is Paddy Power Gold Cup day at Cheltenham on Saturday and the going remains soft after a dry opening day.

The big race is due off at 2.30 with Oscar Whisky and Johns Spirit heading the weights. Philip Hobbs was in good form with a double on Friday but Colour Squadron was diverted from this race only to be beaten by his stable companion in the novice chase. Present View won well at the festival in March and had a nice prep race over hurdles, although connections could have done without the nasty scare when he received a cut at the last flight. Fortunately no damage was done and trainer Jamie Snowdon is optimistic that there is more improvement to come.

The card opens at 12.40 with a tricky novices’ handicap. John Ferguson’s Parlour Game was a good winner on Friday and he will be looking to Chesterfield to continue the good work. Like his stable mate, he is a former Godolphin runner. There are plenty of disappointing types in this race so I am going to take a chance on Irish raider Diamond Dame who is certainly in great form at present.

All eyes will be on Kings Palace for his chasing debut in the 1.15. David Pipe’s six-year-old looked like being one of the bankers of the festival meeting but ran at least a stone below his best and eventually fell. He has had plenty of time to get over that experience and is capable of beating his four rivals if anywhere near his early form of last season.

The Murphy’s Group Handicap Chase at 1.50 features several walking wounded including Sam Winner, Cape Tribulation and The Package. Preference is for the latter who has run some great races here over the years and is capable of winning after a lengthy absence.

The Grand National winner Pineau De Re reappears over hurdles in the 3.00 but will be hard pressed to concede 4lbs to Vivaldi Collonges. He looked likely to score here last time out but was just beaten by In The Rough after a protracted dual. They finished well clear of the third and the Nicholls’ horse can go one better here.

Nicky Henderson’s Hargam makes his hurdling debut in the Triumph Hurdle Trial at 3.35 and is expected to run well. He was a high class performer on the level in France but faces a useful sort in Golden Doyen. He was beaten on the nod at Chepstow in a decent race and his experience may just give him the edge.

Diamond Dame 12.40 @14-1 Bet365

Kings Palace 1.15 @6-4 888Sport

The Package 1.50 @8-1 Ladbrokes

Present View 2.30 @13-2 Coral

Vivaldi Collonges 3.00 @6-1 Ladbrokes

Golden Doyen 3.35 @5-2 Paddy Power

BetBright Chase Preview

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I hope you followed our winning tip for Kaylif Aramis at 11-1 on Saturday. I was surprised how comfortably he won and he could be one to keep an eye on if it comes up soft at the festival next month.

Saturday’s BetBright Chase has gone through many different guises but most will remember best as the Racing Post Chase. It has always struck me as a difficult race to quantify as it is neither a Gold Cup or a Grand National Trial. It usually tells us more about the Aintree marathon than forthcoming events at Cheltenham.

A mass of withdrawals owing largely to the continuing heavy ground has left precious little in the way of potential winners at either meeting. Paul Nicholls has left three in the race led by easy Ascot winner Bury Parade. On the bare evidence of his comfortable win over stable companion Grandioso you can see why he is favourite.

He always looked to be travelling best that day and strode away from Grandioso. I’d suggest that he ought to beat the same horse again on the revised terms but it may be worth remembering that he refused to race the time before. You wouldn’t want to be lumping on him too confidently.

Jump City is the third Nicholls horse and he’d have a chance on his second to Planet Of Sound here in January but ran no sort of race last time. Despite his advancing years, the winner is a serious contender here for Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson. Both have a great record in the race and this is by no means the strongest renewal.

Rajdhani Express is surely going to be anchored by his big weight and the Alan King-trained pair make more appeal. Bless The Wings has always threatened to win a decent prize but you’d just like to see him finish one of his races better. Midnight Appeal ran well last time under a big weight but I’m just worried that this is coming up too quickly.

Plenty of people seem to think Ardkilly Witness is the one to be on but he looks short in the betting on what he has achieved. Baile Anrai ran well at Doncaster and looks capable of reaching the frame while Whats Happening and Bally Legend cannot be ruled out. There may be a few more withdrawals before the weekend and the safest option at the moment could be to go each-way on good old Planet Of Sound to record another Kempton victory.

Planet Of Sound at 11-1 Paddy Power