Tag: Lucida

1000 Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

At first glance, the 1000 Guineas market has a very similar look to the 2000 Guineas with Aidan O’Brien holding a strong hand. Found has been favourite since winning at Longchamp in October but the filly does not carry the same confidence as her stable companion Gleneagles in the colt’s classic.

The reason is that she suffered a minor setback a few weeks’ ago and O’Brien recently suggested that she may not make the Guineas. The Irish Guineas is an alternative and it would be no great surprise to see her stable companion Together Forever take over as favourite next week.

She is also a daughter of Galileo and won three times over a mile last season, suggesting that the Oaks may be her ultimate destination. She ended her campaign with victory in the Dubai Fillies’ Mile when beating Agnes Stewart on soft ground with Lucida behind in fifth. The third and fourth have been well beaten already this season so there is a slight question mark against the form.

It is interesting to see Jim Bolger’s Lucida in to as short as 6-1 for Newmarket despite that defeat. She looked useful when winning the Rockfel Stakes and fast ground could be the key to her. Barry Hills has prepared Rockfel runner-up Fadhayyil in much the same way as he did with Ghanaati in 2009. A racecourse gallop at Newmarket was deemed sufficient as the veteran trainer approaches his second retirement from the sport.

Osaila and Redstart won the big trials at Newmarket and Newbury last week but caused little more than a ripple in the ante-post market. Osaila just held New Providence in the Nell Gwyn Stakes while Redstart effectively ended the classic pretentions of Tiggy Wiggy in the Fred Darling. Neither race really screamed classic winner but Godolphin’s Beautiful Romance ran on well in third at Newmarket and I could see her reversing the form in the classic.

I suggested taking a little of the 40-1 available about Local Time after she stormed to victory in the UAE Guineas. The Godolphin filly followed up even more impressively in the UAE Oaks but is not yet a confirmed runner for Newmarket. If, as I suspect, Found does not make the classic, there could be a large field.

Local Time @43-1 Betfair

Newmarket Friday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Pallasator (13-8) and Mohatem (6-4) gave us a handy double on Thursday on the opening day of the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket. The quality shifts up a gear on Friday with two Group 2 races on a very competitive eight-race card starting at 1.40.

The opening Listed race looks like developing into a battle between Ryan Moore on Provenance and William Buick on Belle D’Or. Although both fillies have excellent form in the book, neither looks the easiest of rides. Sir Michael Stoute had to resort to the hood for Provenance after her disappointing Sandown defeat and Moore rode a very clever race on her to win at Haydock. I got the impression that there is more to come from the well-bred filly and she could just grab the spoils.

Lucida looks the class act in the Rockfel Stakes at 2.40 following her unlucky second in the Moyglare Stud Stakes behind Cursory Glance. The winner got first run on her that day and she ran on well to be beaten only a neck. If she reproduces that effort she should win.

There are some talented milers assembled for the Group 2 Joel Stakes including Outstrip in the blue of Godolphin. He was a smart two-year-old and treated The Great Gatsby with contempt at Doncaster before winning at the Breeders’ Cup. He has come up against Kingman in his last two races and finished within three lengths or so. The danger is the rapidly improving Wannabe Yours who had to be switched around runners to score at Goodwood. Both look worthy of support at decent prices.

Windshear just missed out on a place in the St Leger and ought to gain compensation in the Godolphin Stakes at 3.45. Hopefully he hasn’t forgotten how to win after finishing second four times in a row previously but he has much the best form.

We round off the day with a couple to cheer on in the Silver Cambridgeshire at 5.00. The sensible thing to do is probably to sit this one out and see if there is any significant draw advantage for Saturday’s big race but I’m going to take an each-way interest in Mange All and Sheila’s Buddy.

Mange All ran well last time out to beat all bar The Corsican at Doncaster. He has a slightly shorter trip here and should run well. Sheila’s Buddy was second here a year ago and his recent third at Newbury looked suspiciously like a prep run for another tilt at this big handicap.

Provenance 1.40 @3-1 Betfair

Lucida 2.40 @11-8 Bet365

Wannabe Yours 3.15 @11-2 William Hill

Outstrip 3.15 @9-1 BetVictor

Windshear 3.45 @6-4 Coral

Mange All 5.00 @5-1 Bet365

Sheila’s Buddy 5.00 @25-1 Coral (each-way)

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4