Tag: Rocky Creek

Grand National 2015 – Final field and ratings

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There were no withdrawals from the top forty at the final declaration stage for Saturday’s Aintree Grand National. That means no place in the field for the David Pipe trained duo, The Package and Broadway Buffalo. Unless there are any late jockey changes, Katie Walsh will not get the chance to complete the Irish/English Grand National double.

Here are the final forty with our star ratings from 1 to 5 and the best prices available.

Lord Windermere ***

The winner of the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup but pulled up this year on unfavourable ground. Has the right conditions here but will surely be anchored by his weight. 40-1 Bet365

Many Clouds ***

Won the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and took his chance in the Gold Cup, finishing sixth. Leighton Aspell bids to follow up last year’s win on Pineau De Re but this one also has plenty of weight. 33-1 William Hill

Unioniste ***

Runs in the same colours as 2012 winner Neptune Collonges but does not look likely to get the soft ground that he loves. 33-1 Sportingbet

Rocky Creek *****

A very impressive winner at Kempton in February and looks capable of improving on his fifth place from last year. 10-1 Ladbrokes

First Lieutenant **

Trainer Mouse Morris had two horses in the frame in the Irish National on Monday and hopes are high for Nina Carberry’s mount. Stamina may be the problem here as his only three-mile win came on the Mildmay course here. 33-1 Sportingbet

Balthazar King *****

Runner-up last year to Pineau De Re and missed the Cheltenham festival to go straight for the National. Jockey Richard Johnson is still trying to win the race after 18 attempts. 10-1 Bet365

Shutthefrontdoor ****

Bidding to give Tony McCoy a fairytale send-off. He won the Irish National last year but Jonjo O’Neill would like to have been able to get one more race into him this season. 15-2 Sportingbet

Pineau De Re ****

Trying to emulate Red Rum by winning back-to-back Grand Nationals but is now 8lbs higher in the handicap. Daryl Jacob takes over in the saddle with Leighton Aspell claimed for Many Clouds. 25-1 Ladbrokes

Ballycasey ***

Ruby Walsh won on Papillion and Hedgehunter but Ballycasey still has a lot to prove. Very light on experience for the hurly-burly of the Grand National. 40-1 Skybet

Spring Heeled *****

Stable companion of Lord Windermere and a winner at Cheltenham last year. Nick Scholfield was third on Teaforthree in 2013 and fancies his chances of improving on that here. 22-1 William Hill

Rebel Rebellion ***

Won veterans’ race at Newbury last month and does not look the pick of the four Nicholls runners. Stamina could be an issue for this one. 66-1 Sportingbet

Dolatulo **

The winner of the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby in December but has been well beaten over hurdles since. Warren Greatrex enjoyed his first Cheltenham festival victory last month but it’s difficult to see him adding a Grand National with this one. 66-1 Sportingbet

Mon Parrain **

He was runner-up to Always Waining in the Topham Chase way back in 2011 but that was about as good it as it got. Will be a first National ride for 17-year-old Sean Bowen who has ridden two trebles in the last seven days. 50-1 Coral

Carlito Brigante NON-RUNNER

Night In Milan ***

Won the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster last season but missed the cut for the National. He looks the sort to be up with the pace in the early stages but may struggle on the second circuit. 33-1 Ladbrokes

Rubi Light **

Has won his last two starts over shorter distances at Thurles and Wexford. Was at his peak back in 2012 and it will be a surprise if he stays the marathon journey. 100-1 Coral

The Druids Nephew ****

Won a big handicap at the Cheltenham festival for Neil Mulholland who has booked Aidan Coleman to replace the injured Barry Geraghty. Cheltenham festival winners generally have a poor record here but could he buck the trend? 14-1 Paddy Power

Cause Of Causes *****

Gordon Elliott won with Silver Birch in 2007 and has a good each-way chance with Cause Of Causes. He won over four miles at Cheltenham last time but this is his first sight of the National fences. 18-1 Bet365

Godsmejudge ****

Won the Scottish National in 2013 and finished second in the same race last year. He has been very disappointing this season but would have a great chance on his best form. 22-1 Skybet

Al Co ****

Won the Scottish National at 40-1 last season and Denis O’Regan takes over in the saddle from the injured Jamie Moore. Has been brought along quietly for this race and connections are optimistic. 25-1 Ladbrokes

Monbeg Dude ***

A respectable seventh last year and a past winner of the Welsh National at Chepstow. Disappointing in his trial at Cheltenham and most of his best form has been on soft ground. 40-1 BetVictor

Corrin Wood **

One of two runners for Donald McCain who won with Ballabriggs in 2011. Has struggled to recapture his novice chasing form. 80-1 Sportingbet

The Rainbow Hunter **

Has unseated his rider in the past two Grand Nationals and pulled up on his only run this year. 66-1 BetVictor

Saint Are ***

Finished ninth here in 2013 and was third in the Becher Chase in December. Warmed up for this with a minor victory at Catterick. 33-1 Bet365

Across The Bay **

Was going well in the lead when carried across the track by a loose horse last year. That was a long way from the finish but will surely be up with the pace again this year. 50-1 Paddy Power

Tranquil Sea *

Past his prime at thirteen years of age and held by Soll on Newbury form. 100-1 BetVictor

Oscar Time **

The oldest horse in the field at fourteen and placed in two previous Nationals. Would need to re-write the record books to win at his age. 50-1 Bet365

Bob Ford *

Won the West Wales National at Ffos Las in terrible ground and not going to get his conditions here. 100-1 BetVictor

Super Duty **

Was a useful novice with Donald McCain but has shown nothing so far for Ian Williams. 80-1 Sportingbet

Wyck Hill **

Was bought by JP McManus for the 2013 National but lost his form. Repaid some of the investment by winning the Eider Chase last year for David Bridgwater. 66-1 Sportingbet

Gas Line Boy *

Stable companion of Balthazar King but not in the same league and has been hit hammered by the handicapper for a win at Haydock in November. 100-1 Paddy Power

Chance Du Roy ***

One of three runners for Philip Hobbs and a regular visitor to Liverpool. He is one of the most experienced runners over these fences and should put in a clear round without quite having the pace to win it. 40-1 William Hill

Portrait King **

Won the Eider Chase in 2012 but has dropped down the handicap since and looks past his prime. 80-1 Sportingbet

Owega Star *

Peter Fahey’s eight-year-old was well beaten at Naas last month and looks out of his depth here. 100-1 Sportingbet

River Choice *

A rare French raider but little to suggest that he will do anything other than make up the numbers. 150-1 Sportingbet

Court By Surprise ***

Emma Lavelle is bidding to become the fourth woman to train a Grand National winner and this is her first runner in the race.  Was awarded the race at Wincanton last time but capable of putting in a clear round. 50-1 Coral

Alvarado ***

The Rucker family have been placed in the last six Grand Nationals and Alvarado has the responsibility of making it seven. Paul Moloney will try to pop him round safely and worry about getting a place on the second circuit. 20-1 Paddy Power

Soll ***

David Pipe’s only runner as he bids to follow up his victory with Comply Or Die in 2008. He was seventh in 2013 when trained by Jo Hughes and has won both of his races since joining Pipe. 22-1 Betway

Ely Brown *

He was off the track for nearly year after picking up an injury and surely lacks the experience for this race. 100-1 BetVictor

Royale Knight **

Scraping in at number forty, Royale Knight is a stable companion of Pineau De Re but that is probably the best thing that you can say about his chances here. 33-1 Ladbrokes

Aintree Grand National Day Preview

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We are about level with the bookmakers after the first two days but now for the big one! We have four ante-post bets on the Grand National with Shutthefrontdoor (20-1), Cause of Causes (33-1), Spring Heeled (33-1) and Monbeg Dude (33-1). Of those, only the latter has lengthened in price after a poor prep race and the going does seem to have gone against him.

If I had to name the horse that I fear most it would have to be Rocky Creek. He was very impressive at Kempton, has course experience and the Nicholls team have already struck with three winners this week. He is currently a best priced 10-1 and may be worth a saver, particularly if he goes to 12-1 between now and race time.

The Nicholls bandwagon can kick off Saturday’s card with a winner in As De Mee. He looked pretty average earlier in the season but has really improved on his last two starts and is proven over this trip. The same cannot be said of the majority of these while the Neptune form could be vulnerable.

Un De Sceaux’s late withdrawal from the second race has left a modest bunch for a Grade 1. God’s Own is the form choice but I don’t think he is much value at around 7-4 and I’d rather take a chance on Gary Moore’s improving Traffic Fluide.

Nico de Boinville must still be basking in the glory of his Cheltenham Gold Cup win and he can add the Liverpool Hurdle aboard Whisper. Nicky Henderson’s gelding was a real star for this column last season, winning at the festival and following up in this race. Like Saphir Du Rheu, he aborted his first tilt at chasing and the move can pay off.

Buywise looks to have a favourite’s chance in the Handicap Chase prior to the National. He stuck on really well up the hill at Cheltenham last time and most of  his rivals look out of form. Henderson’s return to form can continue with One For The Guv’nr in the next to complete a double for he and De Boinville. He has not been extended to win small races but looks to have been let in lightly here.

Alan King saddles three in the finale and preference is for Miss Crick, the mount of Wayne Hutchinson. She won well at Newbury and the Berkshire course usually throws up some decent bumper winners.

As De Mee 1.30 @14-1 Boylesports

Traffic Fluide 2.05 @5-1 Bet365

Whisper 2.50 @5-1 Ladbrokes

Buywise 3.25 @5-2 Betfair

Rocky Creek 4.15 @10-1 William Hill

One For The Guv’nr 5.10 @9-2 Betfair

Miss Crick 5.40 @12-1 Bet365

Grand National 2015 – Aintree News Update

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The Aintree Grand National is less than two weeks away now and the bookmakers are bracing themselves for a massive gamble on Tony McCoy’s expected mount, Shutthefrontdoor. We forecast this over a month ago and recommended taking the 20-1 about last year’s Irish National winner. He is now as short as 6-1 in places, generally 7-1.

Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has been sending out mixed signals, understandably starting to feel the pressure of supplying McCoy’s final ride in the race. There have been heavy hints that the champion jockey will call time immediately on his riding career if he passes the post in front on April 11th.

All three of our other recommended each-way bets remain in contention. Spring Heeled and Cause Of Causes are both now 20-1 from 33-1 while Monbeg Dude remains 33-1 after a poor prep run. Soft ground may improve the chances of Monbeg Dude, otherwise we may see him drift further in the betting.

Rocky Creek spearheads the Paul Nicholls runners and he could be joined by Unioniste, Rebel Rebellion and Mon Parrain. Last year’s runner-up Balthazar King is certain to be popular having by-passed Cheltenham this year in an attempt to go one better.

Aidan Coleman has been booked to ride the well-fancied The Druids Nephew after both Barry Geraghty and Davy Russell were ruled out through injury. It would be poetic justice for Coleman were he to pick up a spare ride and win the race, having chosen the wrong horse when Mon Mome won at 100-1 in 2009 under Liam Treadwell.

Alvarado will be bidding to continue the extraordinary run of the Rucker family who have been placed in the last six Grand Nationals, all ridden by Paul Moloney. He has had only one race since finishing fourth last year and is currently a top price of 25-1 with Coral.

I am surprised that both Lord Windermere and Many Clouds are heading to Aintree after running poorly in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Leighton Aspell has been claimed to ride Many Clouds for Oliver Sherwood, leaving Daryl Jacob to take the ride on last year’s winner Pineau De Re. Lord Windermere ran a lifeless race at the festival and is burdened with top weight here with Robbie McNamara taking the ride.

Nina Carberry will ride First Lieutenant for Mouse Morris in a bid to become the first lady jockey to win the race. Katie Walsh has come closest so far, finishing third on Seabass in 2012.

Several firms are already offering five places in the National for each-way betting. They are: Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, BetVictor, Paddy Power, 888Sport, Betfair and 32Red.

Grand National – 74 remain after latest declaration stage

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There are 74 horses remaining in the £1million Aintree Grand National on April 11th after thirteen were taken out on Tuesday.

As expected, Carlingford Lough was withdrawn after a disappointing run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Also out are: Rolling Aces, Alderwood, Boston Bob, Shotgun Paddy, Theatrical Star, Roi Du Mee, Katenko, Living Next Door, Make A Track, Prince De Beauchene, Cedre Bleu and Buddy Bolero.

The good news for followers of our ante-post advice is that Monbeg Dude has been given the all-clear despite a poor run at Cheltenham. Connections could find nothing wrong with the horse physically and have decided that he resented the tongue-strap which will not be used at Aintree.

Our other selections also remain in contention with Shutthefrontdoor, Spring Heeled and Cause Of Causes all prominent in the betting. We highlighted the chance of Shutthefrontdoor prior to Cheltenham and his price has collapsed from 20-1 to 8-1. Champion jockey Tony McCoy will almost certainly be on board the favourite and has said that victory in the race may well be the perfect time to retire.

Spring Heeled (tipped at 33-1) is now a top priced 20-1 for Jim Culloty who still has top weight Lord Windermere entered in the race. Jockey Davy Russell has joined Barry Geraghty on the side lines through injury while Bryan Cooper is suspended. Russell revealed earlier this week that Culloty had removed him from the ride on Lord Windermere after his poor run in the Gold Cup. He became detached soon after the start and was eventually pulled up. The ground had gone against him on the day but Culloty clearly was not satisfied with Russell’s performance.

Paul Nicholls intends to run all six of his remaining entries headed by Rocky Creek and Unioniste. Rocky Creek looks the obvious pick after finishing fifth last year and putting up a lifetime best to win at Kempton last time out. Unioniste could yet emerge as one of the gambles of the race if the going becomes soft.

Last week we added Cause Of Causes to our portfolio at 33-1 and he is now a top price 20-1. He also races in the JP McManus colours carried by Shutthefrontdoor.

If you have not yet had a bet on the race, look out for non-runner – no bet terms. Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James and Betfair are already offering this provision.

BetBright Chase Preview

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The BetBright Chase (formerly the Racing Post Chase) is the highlight of Saturday’s Kempton card. The race has certainly lost much of its significance as a Cheltenham/Aintree trial in recent seasons with Rough Quest (1996) the last winner to go on to big race success.

Back in the 1980’s and early 90’s the roll of honour includes Combs Ditch, Rhyme ‘N’ Reason, Bonanza Boy and Desert Orchid. I don’t think we will see anything of that calibre this weekend but there are a number of horses on the comeback trail for Aintree.

Rocky Creek finished fifth in last year’s Grand National and has been aimed at Aintree again this season. He made a pleasing start when second in Ireland but pulled up in the Hennessy at Newbury. Godsmejudge won the Scottish National in 2013 and ran a fine race last year when finishing runner-up to Al Co. That race will almost certainly be on his agenda again this spring but he is also coming off the back of a disappointing run at Doncaster.

Nicky Henderson has entered Rajdhani Express for the National but I suspect more in hope than expectation. He has yet to win over three miles and is being tried in a hood for the first time on Saturday. Staying the three miles is also a concern for Emma Lavelle’s Fox Appeal, although he has done so over hurdles.

Paul Nicholls also saddles Easter Day and this one has a lot more going for it than Rocky Creek. He was smart enough to beat RSA Chase winner O’Faolains Boy as a novice and was having only his second race back from injury when falling at Cheltenham last time out. He was still going well just behind the leaders and it was an unlucky fall at the tricky third last fence. He should go well for Nick Scholfield and looks fairly treated with 10st 13lb on his back.

My other fancy for the race is Le Reve who beat Theatrical Star by five lengths over this trip at Sandown last month. That was his third win at the Esher course but he did win at Kempton over hurdles and there are similarities. The handicapper has put him up 7lbs but jockey Leighton Aspell was able to take a pull with three to jump and he looks good each-way value at around 10-1.

Le Reve 3.45 Kempton Saturday @10-1 Paddy Power

Easter Day 3.45 Kempton Saturday @5-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Hennessy Gold Cup Preview

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The Hennessy Gold Cup is fast approaching and has attracted several potential Gold Cup horses.

Last year we were celebrating a 14-1 ante-post winning tip with Nicky Henderson’s Triolo D’Alene. His season fell apart a little after that and it will be interesting to see if he makes his seasonal debut here. Henderson is more likely to rely on Hadrian’s Approach who departed early on last year but ended the season winning the Bet365 Gold Cup (formerly the Whitbread) at Sandown.

I had previously thought that his jumping didn’t stand up in big fields but there was nothing wrong with it at the Esher track. On the downside, he is up 7lbs and arrives here without the benefit of a previous run. Philip Hobbs had an unbelievable three days at Cheltenham’s Open meeting and pins his hopes on Fingal Bay.

I’ve always got the greatest respect for horses that can carry big weights in the festival handicaps but he has only ever raced twice over fences. He was a fair second on his debut before running out after continuously jumping to his left at Exeter. He reverted successfully to hurdles last season but this an enormous task for an inexperienced chaser. The same applies to Irish hope Djakadam who fell at the festival on his third start over fences and has not been seen since. Time may show that he is well handicapped here but he hasn’t done enough over fences to justify his current price in a race like this.

Ireland has a poor record in this race but Gordon Elliott’s Don Cossack would be an interesting contender after wins at Punchestown and Down Royal. He only had two to beat in the Grade 2 Powers Irish Whiskey Chase last time but did it well.

Paul Nicholls has won this twice as a jockey and three times as a trainer. He could saddle Rocky Creek and last week’s Cheltenham winner Sam Winner. Rocky Creek finished second last year and is up 5lbs but ran a cracker when runner-up to Road To Riches at Down Royal last time. Nicholls is aiming him at the Grand National in which he finished fifth last year.

Although plenty of horses have won this without a prep race, I usually like confirmation that the horse is fit and well and Many Clouds fits the bill. Oliver Sherwood was bitterly disappointed when he was brought down in the RSA Chase and it would have been interesting to see whether he could have beaten O’Faolains Boy. He reappeared at Carlisle and won impressively with the handicapper raising him 7lbs as a result.

The RSA Chase has been a great guide to the Hennessy Gold Cup in recent seasons and runner-up Smad Place has to be worthy of consideration. Alan King has already declared his intention to go here without a prep race and it would be difficult to ignore his chances if you fancy Many Clouds. He has only had four races over fences but has winning form at Newbury. With doubts about Djakadam and Fingal Bay, I’m going each-way on Many Clouds and Smad Place.

Many Clouds @17-2 Betway

Smad Place @10-1 Ladbrokes, Bet365

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4