Tag: Nina Carberry

Grand National Blog – Déjà vu for Punters at Aintree

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Aintree Day 1 Report

The last flight fall of Arctic Fire in the Aintree Hurdle was strangely reminiscent of last month’s demise of odds-on favourite Annie Power at Cheltenham. Once again it was the Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh combination seemingly set to strike a blow for the punters before disaster struck at the last hurdle.

His departure left the race at the mercy of Jezki and Tony McCoy but the best news was that both horse and rider escaped unscathed. McCoy would later be in the wars himself when Ned Buntline came down in the sixth race. The champion jockey was immediately back up on his feet and able to fling his helmet to the ground in disgust.

It was a day of mixed fortunes for punters with Nina Carberry never giving her supporters an anxious moment when taking the Fox Hunter Chase with On The Fringe. Silviniaco Conti was preferred in the market to Holywell and duly reversed the Cheltenham Gold Cup under Noel Fehily. Punters could have ended the day in profit had Call The Cops held off the late thrust of Taglietelle in the closing handicap hurdle. Bookmakers had little to complain about in the other races with Clarcam (5-1), All Yours (16-1) and Surf And Turf (33-1).

Grand National Latest

There has been little activity worthy of note in the Grand National market with Shutthefrontdoor a general 7-1 favourite ahead of Rocky Creek and Balthazar King at 10-1 and The Druids Nephew at 14-1. Gordon Elliott will certainly be growing in confidence ahead of Cause Of Causes run in Saturday’s race after a first day double courtesy of Clarcam and Taglietelle.

A few late jockey bookings for the National include Brian Hughes on Ely Brown, Brendan Powell on Royale Knight, Tom Cannon on Wyck Hill and Liam Treadwell on Monbeg Dude. The four reserves have only until 9am tomorrow for any of the top forty to come out.

Special Offers

The best Grand National offers at present are each-way down to sixth place from BetVictor and half of your stake back as a free bet for Bet365 customers (applies to all each-way bets on the National up to a maximum of £125 per customer). If you are intending opening a Coral account, they will pay out on the Grand National winner at treble the odds for new customers. Full details on their respective websites.

Aintree Thursday Preview

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The Betfred Bowl is one of four Grade 1 races in the opening day of the Grand National meeting at Aintree.

Tony McCoy is re-united with Jonjo O’Neill’s Holywell after being claimed to ride Carlingford Lough in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Holywell briefly looked threatening four from home but could only plug on at one pace into fourth behind Coneygree. That was still a fine effort, particularly as the rain-softened ground went against him.

He is a real spring horse with all of his seven career victories having come between January and April. He had won at the previous two Cheltenham festivals and also won here last year when slamming Don Cossack by ten lengths in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase. The obvious danger is Silviniaco Conti who was a disappointing favourite in the Gold Cup. He bounced back to win this race last year and I expect to see Noel Fehily adopt more positive tactics than at Cheltenham.

Cheltenham form is also tested in the Aintree Hurdle at 3.25 when Arctic Fire lines up against Jezki. We tipped Arctic Fire at 25-1 for the Champion Hurdle so were delighted with his run in second place behind Faugheen. He holds Jezki on that form and McCoy’s mount is prone to pull too hard for his own good. The only question mark is whether Arctic Fire stays this longer trip but his style of racing suggests that he will.

McCoy should have register a victory in the McManus colours on Hargam in the Juvenile Hurdle. He was third in the Henderson-dominated Triumph Hurdle and was ten lengths clear of Devilment in fourth place. The green and gold colours have several chances on the card, notably with On The Fringe and Ned Buntline.

On The Fringe was always travelling best in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham and Nina Carberry has a great chance of landing the double here. He has yet to tackle these fences and a huge field of thirty is always a worry. If he settles over the first few fences, he is capable of following up. Ned Buntline gets a handy pull in the weights with Next Sensation for Cheltenham. He was fancied to give Tony McCoy a winning send-off but the ground was too soft for him.

Call The Cops is up 7lbs for his Pertemps Final victory but that may not be enough to prevent him from following up in the last. Vibrato Valtat tried to go after Un De Sceaux in the Arkle and had nothing left in the closing stages. He will be ridden with more restraint in the opener where he clashes with Josses Hill.

Vibrato Valtat 1.40 @9-4 Ladbrokes

Hargam 2.15 @Evens Bet365

Holywell 2.50 @15-8 Skybet

Arctic Fire 3.25 @2-1 Bet365

On The Fringe 4.05 @4-1 Bet365

Ned Buntline 4.40 @8-1 Ladbrokes

Call The Cops 5.15 @7-1 Ladbrokes

Katie Walsh wins Irish National on Thunder And Roses

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Punters will be hoping that the Aintree Grand National is a lot easier to solve than the Irish equivalent after Thunder And Roses took the Easter Monday feature at Fairyhouse at 20-1. He was followed home by Rule The World (20-1), Sizing Coal (40-1) and Band Of Blood (50-1). Tony McCoy finished sixth on Cantlow on his final ride in the race.

Thunder And Roses was an emotional success for Sandra Hughes who only took over the stables of her late father Dessie in November. He races in the colours of Gigginstown House Stud who had the first three jumping the last with only Sizing Coal’s late run preventing a 1,2,3. Katie Walsh has not ridden the horse previously and would not have taken much encouragement from his last run at Cheltenham where he unseated Jonny King.

Walsh came close to winning the Grand National on Seabass in 2012 when finishing third to Neptune Collonges but now faces an anxious wait to see if she has a ride this year. She has been provisionally booked to ride Broadway Buffalo for David Pipe but the gelding still needs five more horses to drop out. He is one of three David Pipe entries among the 65 left in with only Soll guaranteed a run. Cheltenham winner The Package is just one place above Broadway Buffalo and both could be re-routed to the Topham Chase if they do not make the cut.

It seems likely that Nina Carberry will be the only female rider in the race this year when she partners First Lieutenant for Mouse Morris. The stable will be full of hope after saddling the runner-up and the fourth on Monday, although naturally disappointed that neither could cling on for the victory. First Lieutenant is a high class performer and he will carry the hopes of a famous National double for Gigginstown in the National.

Sandra Hughes is another left anxiously waiting for the final cut with her entry, Raz De Maree. He needs just three runners to come out in order to sneak into the starting line up on Saturday. First Lieutenant is a top price 33-1 with Paddy Power while Broadway Buffalo is a general 50-1 chance. Most firms are now offering non-runner – no bet terms on the race. For the best each-way value, BetVictor are also paying out on the first six home at Aintree!

Grand National 2015 – Aintree News Update

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The Aintree Grand National is less than two weeks away now and the bookmakers are bracing themselves for a massive gamble on Tony McCoy’s expected mount, Shutthefrontdoor. We forecast this over a month ago and recommended taking the 20-1 about last year’s Irish National winner. He is now as short as 6-1 in places, generally 7-1.

Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has been sending out mixed signals, understandably starting to feel the pressure of supplying McCoy’s final ride in the race. There have been heavy hints that the champion jockey will call time immediately on his riding career if he passes the post in front on April 11th.

All three of our other recommended each-way bets remain in contention. Spring Heeled and Cause Of Causes are both now 20-1 from 33-1 while Monbeg Dude remains 33-1 after a poor prep run. Soft ground may improve the chances of Monbeg Dude, otherwise we may see him drift further in the betting.

Rocky Creek spearheads the Paul Nicholls runners and he could be joined by Unioniste, Rebel Rebellion and Mon Parrain. Last year’s runner-up Balthazar King is certain to be popular having by-passed Cheltenham this year in an attempt to go one better.

Aidan Coleman has been booked to ride the well-fancied The Druids Nephew after both Barry Geraghty and Davy Russell were ruled out through injury. It would be poetic justice for Coleman were he to pick up a spare ride and win the race, having chosen the wrong horse when Mon Mome won at 100-1 in 2009 under Liam Treadwell.

Alvarado will be bidding to continue the extraordinary run of the Rucker family who have been placed in the last six Grand Nationals, all ridden by Paul Moloney. He has had only one race since finishing fourth last year and is currently a top price of 25-1 with Coral.

I am surprised that both Lord Windermere and Many Clouds are heading to Aintree after running poorly in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Leighton Aspell has been claimed to ride Many Clouds for Oliver Sherwood, leaving Daryl Jacob to take the ride on last year’s winner Pineau De Re. Lord Windermere ran a lifeless race at the festival and is burdened with top weight here with Robbie McNamara taking the ride.

Nina Carberry will ride First Lieutenant for Mouse Morris in a bid to become the first lady jockey to win the race. Katie Walsh has come closest so far, finishing third on Seabass in 2012.

Several firms are already offering five places in the National for each-way betting. They are: Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, BetVictor, Paddy Power, 888Sport, Betfair and 32Red.

Cheltenham Preview – Friday 13th March

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It’s Gold Cup day at Cheltenham and we look set for a thrilling renewal. If there are any doubts about the quality, there is at least quantity and most punters would rather watch a competitive race with 17 runners than an odds-on favourite in a small field.

Silviniaco Conti supporters will be hoping for third time lucky after falling in 2013 and fading up the hill last year. We will never know whether he would have won had he not tipped up three out but it is difficult to make a case about him not liking the track. He did everything right last year but didn’t quite last home.

The bookmakers are taking a chance at 5-1 about him. We already have Djakadam tipped at ante-post odds of 16-1 but his inexperience may count against him while Lord Windermere will probably run his best race of the season. I also fancy Holywell to post a career best as he loves this meeting.

The action starts with the Triumph Hurdle and we were on Top Notch at 16-1 some weeks ago. I’m pleased that the owners are letting him run despite also having the hot favourite in Peace And Co. I also like Pain Au Chocolat and Devilment at big prices in a fascinating race. Very few of these have actually met in the trials so it is really a shot in the dark.

The County Hurdle is notoriously difficult to sort out and a very appropriate winner would be Sort It Out. He is one of three JP McManus runners along with Waxies Dargle and Princely Conn. The latter is the mount of AP McCoy while Waxies Dargle fell in a big handicap last time and has Paul Carberry in the saddle. Quick Jack will probably start favourite and should run well for Tony Martin.

I’ve been a fan of Value At Risk for the Albert Bartlett for some time so shouldn’t really desert him now. My only concern is the quicker ground but the same applies to most of these. The Henderson horses, Out Sam and Carache Apache, are attractively priced and I wouldn’t put you off either of them.

It will be interesting to see how Sheikh Fahad’s new purchase Current Event gets on in the Foxhunter but I’m siding with Nina Carberry here with On The Fringe. Much of this week has been about Willie Mullins and he can strike again with Roi Des Francs in the Martin Pipe Hurdle. Everyone will be cheering for AP on Ned Buntline in the finale but Blood Cotil is tough and consistent and can close out the meeting for Mullins in style.

New customers only – Racebet 10-1 Nicky Henderson to win 1.30 (max. £5 stake)

1.30 Top Notch @16-1* Ante-post

2.05 Sort It Out @14-1 Bet365

2.40 Value At Risk @12-1 Paddy Power

3.20 Djakadam @16-1 *Ante-post

4.00 On The Fringe @8-1 Ladbrokes

4.40 Roi Des Francs @9-2 Bet365

5.15 Blood Cotil @10-1 Bet365