Tag: Value At Risk

Cheltenham Preview – Friday 13th March

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It’s Gold Cup day at Cheltenham and we look set for a thrilling renewal. If there are any doubts about the quality, there is at least quantity and most punters would rather watch a competitive race with 17 runners than an odds-on favourite in a small field.

Silviniaco Conti supporters will be hoping for third time lucky after falling in 2013 and fading up the hill last year. We will never know whether he would have won had he not tipped up three out but it is difficult to make a case about him not liking the track. He did everything right last year but didn’t quite last home.

The bookmakers are taking a chance at 5-1 about him. We already have Djakadam tipped at ante-post odds of 16-1 but his inexperience may count against him while Lord Windermere will probably run his best race of the season. I also fancy Holywell to post a career best as he loves this meeting.

The action starts with the Triumph Hurdle and we were on Top Notch at 16-1 some weeks ago. I’m pleased that the owners are letting him run despite also having the hot favourite in Peace And Co. I also like Pain Au Chocolat and Devilment at big prices in a fascinating race. Very few of these have actually met in the trials so it is really a shot in the dark.

The County Hurdle is notoriously difficult to sort out and a very appropriate winner would be Sort It Out. He is one of three JP McManus runners along with Waxies Dargle and Princely Conn. The latter is the mount of AP McCoy while Waxies Dargle fell in a big handicap last time and has Paul Carberry in the saddle. Quick Jack will probably start favourite and should run well for Tony Martin.

I’ve been a fan of Value At Risk for the Albert Bartlett for some time so shouldn’t really desert him now. My only concern is the quicker ground but the same applies to most of these. The Henderson horses, Out Sam and Carache Apache, are attractively priced and I wouldn’t put you off either of them.

It will be interesting to see how Sheikh Fahad’s new purchase Current Event gets on in the Foxhunter but I’m siding with Nina Carberry here with On The Fringe. Much of this week has been about Willie Mullins and he can strike again with Roi Des Francs in the Martin Pipe Hurdle. Everyone will be cheering for AP on Ned Buntline in the finale but Blood Cotil is tough and consistent and can close out the meeting for Mullins in style.

New customers only – Racebet 10-1 Nicky Henderson to win 1.30 (max. £5 stake)

1.30 Top Notch @16-1* Ante-post

2.05 Sort It Out @14-1 Bet365

2.40 Value At Risk @12-1 Paddy Power

3.20 Djakadam @16-1 *Ante-post

4.00 On The Fringe @8-1 Ladbrokes

4.40 Roi Des Francs @9-2 Bet365

5.15 Blood Cotil @10-1 Bet365

Horse Racing Preview 24th January

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It’s Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham on Saturday and there should be clues to many of the feature races in March.

The action gets under way at 12.40 with Peace And Co looking to cement his position at the head of the Triumph Hurdle market. He is one of several exciting French imports trained by Nicky Henderson and he absolutely hacked up on his debut at Doncaster. The value of the form is debatable and I can hardly believe that he is as short as 9-4 for the Triumph Hurdle. Even so, it will be a major surprise if he is beaten here.

The BetBright Cup at 1.50 sees the return of Many Clouds who did this column a favour in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November. He steps out of handicap company to face last year’s Ryanair winner Dynaste. David Pipe’s grey finished an honourable second in the King George VI Chase last time out but is probably better at shorter distances. Smad Place was only fifth in the Hennessy but will provide a good test if he is fit enough.

Tactics could be important and it may de down to Leighton Aspell to set the pace on Many Clouds. I have reservations about Dynaste up the Cheltenham hill but I think he will have too much class for these.

The horse that I am most looking forward to seeing in action on Saturday is Value At Risk in the Neptune Trial at 3.00. He was trained in Ireland by Philip Fenton last season and finished third in the champion bumper at Punchestown. He was very impressive when coasting to victory at Newbury by 22 lengths on his first start for Dan Skelton. I think he will win on Saturday and his price will fall for the Neptune so it may be worth taking some of the 16-1.

The feature race at Doncaster is the Skybet Chase at 3.15. Tony McCoy has taken the ride on If In Doubt who was useful over hurdles but lacks experience over fences. Easter Day ran well for a long way on his first start after a year off the track and must be respected but most of the other runners look fully exposed. It could be an opportunity for some McCoy magic.

Finally, good luck to Harry Spiller who has his first runner as a trainer at Lingfield tomorrow. The Third Man proved expensive for punters when trained by John Gosden last year but is not without a chance in the 2.35.

Peace And Co 12.40 Cheltenham @4-7 Bet365

Dynaste 1.50 Cheltenham @9-4 Paddy Power

Value At Risk 3.0 Cheltenham @15-8 Bet365

If In Doubt 3.15 Doncaster @11-2 William Hill

*Value At Risk – Neptune Hurdle @16-1 Paddy Power

*ante-post