Tag: Newmarket

Local Time 40-1 for 1000 Guineas after UAE romp

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Meydan provided flat racing fans with a taste of things to come this year with a top quality card on Thursday. The returning Dubai World Cup winner African Story failed to overcome his lengthy absence but there is no doubt who was the star of the show. Godolphin filly Local Time blew away the opposition in the UAE 1000 Guineas, winning by three and a quarter lengths.

The race was billed as a re-match between Local Time and Ad Idem after the pair had been separated by just a short-head in the trial two weeks’ ago. Ad Idem, trained by Mick de Kock, set out in front but was always travelling too keenly in the hands of Paul Hanagan. James Doyle sat in his slipstream before moving upsides with other three furlongs to run.

It was already obvious that Local Time was going much the better and she strode clear to win impressively. Stable companion Good Place ran on well to take second with Ad Idem dropping right away to finish last. A year ago I was very keen on the chances of Ihtimal for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket after a similar performance. She went on to win the UAE Oaks by a record margin before finishing third at Newmarket.

Could Local Time be in that class? She was officially rated only 89 after beating Astrelle in the Oh So Sharp Stakes in October (coincidentally a race won by subsequent Guineas winner Miss France in 2013), a rating revised to 99 after her trial victory. I would imagine this latest win puts her up to around 106. The current 1000 Guineas favourite is Aidan O’Brien’s Found who was third to Cursory Glance (112) in the Moyglare Stud Stakes before winning impressively in France. In terms of the ratings, Local Time is a lively outsider but the bookmakers quotes vary from 16-1 with Stan James to 40-1 with 888sport.

The problem for ante-post backers is guessing Godolphin’s plans for the filly. It seems very likely that she will follow Ihtimal by running in the UAE Oaks before a decision is made regarding Newmarket. If she wins well there, she could run in the UAE Derby or the Guineas. Godolphin may even be tempted to run her in the Kentucky Oaks, given her improved form on dirt.

African Story was always going to be up against it in the Al Maktoum Challenge after almost a year off the track. He never threatened to get involved, eventually finishing seventh behind Frankyfourfingers and Prince Bishop.

Local Time 1000 Guineas @40-1 888Sport, 32Red

Newmarket Saturday Preview

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The Cesarewitch day card at Newmarket looks like being a thorough test of stamina for punters as well as the horses! As well as the 32-runner marathon, the seven-race card also features a 24-runner mile and a half handicap.

We have previewed the Cesarewitch separately and are hoping for a run for our money from Suegioo and Rhombus. The preceding race is just as taxing to work out with all sorts of interwoven form lines. I am hoping that I have unearthed a well weighted horse in Andrew Balding’s Nabatean.

The son of Rock Of Gibraltar was having only his fourth start when staying on into fourth behind Battersea at Ascot in July. He had previously got off the mark in a Lingfield maiden and was given a lot to do by David Probert, moving up from last place approaching the home turn. He has a lengthy absence to overcome but is 16lbs better off with the winner for four and a half lengths. That ought to give him a decent chance and Hayley Turner has landed the ride with just 8st 1lb to carry.

I have plenty of respect for Luca Cumani’s Connecticut who looked set to complete a four-timer at York before finding the mile and three-quarters just beyond him. He is well worth an each-way bet in a wide open contest.

The same colours are carried by stable mate Bartholomew Fair on the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at 2.05. He beat an ordinary field at Yarmouth easily last time but I think this race could produce a shock with both Future Empire and Order Of St George looking suspect. Future Empire was just beaten at Sandown in the Solario Stakes but a good sized horse blanket would have covered the first four home.

Order Of St George looks a very edgy type, although he did win his maiden by a street. I think Hail Clodius could also be under-rated. He thrashed Fieldsman here last time out and that horse has won twice since.

Each-way betting could also be the order of the day in the Listed race at 2.40 with nineteen fillies and mares going to post. I am reluctant to pass over Blue Waltz after she bolted up at Doncaster last time but she still has to improve to win this and better value may be found with This Is The Day. She won only a modest Brighton handicap before defying a big hike in the weights at Haydock and she could surprise a few here. Albasharah is probably the form horse if she repeats her excellent run at Yarmouth when second to Hadaatha. The winner was only beaten half a length in a Group 1 at Longchamp last weekend.

Bartholomew Fair 2.05 (e/w) @9-1 Bet365

Hail Clodius (e/w) 2.05 @20-1 Paddy Power non-runner

Albasharah 2.40 @11-2 William Hill

This Is The Day (e/w) 2.40 @18-1 Bet Victor

Connecticut (e/w) 3.10  @10-1 Skybet

Nabatean (e/w) 3.10 @12-1 Paddy Power

Suegioo (e/w) 3.50 @18-1 Paddy Power

Rhombus (e/w) 3.50 @25-1 Coral

Cesarewitch 2014 Preview

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The Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket always used to be one of my favourite races of the season. Back in the 1980’s it was not too difficult to find the winner with the likes of Popsi’s Joy, Halsbury, Mountain Lodge, Kayudee, Nomadic Way and Double Dutch all well fancied.

The same cannot be said of the most recent winners. First we had jump trainers monopolising the race such as Messrs Pipe, Hobbs and Henderson. That last four winners needed Mystic Meg with Aaim To Prosper winning twice (16-1 and 66-1) along with Never Can Tell (25-1) and Scatter Dice (66-1). Could we be in for a third successive “double carpet” winner this year?

Not according to the bookmakers who are running scared from Irish raider Quick Jack. The high-class hurdler won at Galway in July when hooded for the first time. It was not exactly the kind of race where you can rely on the form too much but the third horse was only just beaten at Ascot recently. By my calculations the horse has been raised 9lbs but there seems to be plenty of confidence behind him. If you have managed to get on at a double-figure price you should be well pleased but he is less tempting at around 6-1.

Big Easy and Ray Ward are next in the betting. The former was a staying on second in the trial race here last month but finished only 21st a year ago and has not won since scoring over three miles at Cheltenham in April last year. Ray Ward was behind Big Easy last time and was beaten by Teak at Goodwood in July. You have to go back just as far for his last victory. Teak followed up by winning over an extended three miles at Plumpton!

Maid In Rio bolted up at Ascot in July off a mark of 93 but is now 10lbs higher and has looked laboured in her last three races. Earth Amber was quietly fancied here a year ago and only beat one horse home. Her form varies from second in a Group 3 on the flat to second in a maiden hurdle at Fakenham!

I’ve been very impressed with Cam Hardie this season and he teams up with the progressive Rhombus for Ismael Mohammed. He carries only a 4lb penalty for his win at Newbury, a race in which he gave his rivals a good six lengths start. Waterclock was second here last year and is lower in the weights, unfortunately so low that he may not even get into the final line-up.

Big weights are not necessarily a bar to success in this race so Suegioo should not be discarded with 9st 8lb. Marco Botti’s gelding stayed on well at Doncaster last month behind Stomachion and should give Martin Harley a good ride.

Rhombus @25-1 Coral

Suegioo @18-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4,5 non-runner – no bet

Racing Preview Oct 4th

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Charter (tipped at 11-2) and Telmeyd (2-1) got us off to a flying start at Ascot on Friday. Unfortunately Ryan Moore arrived a fraction late on Consign and the photograph also went against us with Marzocco.

Once again the race planners have given us an embarrassment of riches with Group race action at Ascot and Newmarket as well as day 1 of the Arc meeting. Having previewed the Arc separately, I am going to concentrate on the big races in the UK on Saturday starting with Ascot.

Muthmir has been a good friend to this column with victories at York and Doncaster this season. He has fully justified the belief that he is a potential Group class sprinter and moves up to Listed class in the opening race at 2.05. Predictably, the bookmakers are running scared after being hit by this horse in the past so he is no great value. However, rather like Tiggy Wiggy last week, there is no reason to desert him.

Prince’s Trust stands out in the big handicap and should provide a winner for Her Majesty The Queen. He hacked up at Yarmouth and his victims included Outback Traveller who won with similar ease here on Friday. The handicapper has given him a 12lb hike but Cam Hardie reduces that by 3lbs and Haggas looks to have saved him for this event.

I must also put in a word for my old friend Dungannon in the last race. He could never get to B Fifty One who flew out of stall 1 at Chester last time but this is Dungannon’s time of year. He is racing off 92, a mark that should see him back in the winner’s enclosure before the end of the season.

Over at Newmarket they are staging a couple of those big sales races. I can understand the concept to encourage people to buy at Tattersalls but the prize money dished out is quite obscene for the quality of the actual races. The first race wouldn’t be out of place at Nottingham on a Monday and yet there is £300,000 going begging.

I am going to take a chance with Invincible Gold in the 2.20 race. Strictly on the form book he shouldn’t beat some of these but I think he is a nice colt and the likes of Heartbreak Hero and Secret Brief could be over-rated. Ed Walker did us a favour with Dark Wave (tipped at 11-1 on Thursday) and he should give us a run for our money.

The same applies to Majestic Manner in the Oh So Sharp Stakes at 2.55. She caught my eye when running on well in a Windsor maiden and won nicely last time out after racing prominently. Her dam was useful and she could dent a few lofty reputations here.

Finally, I am going to go for Esoterique to win the Sun Chariot Stakes for France. Andre Fabre also runs Fintry and Guineas winner Miss France but I think Esoterique’s form is stronger.

Muthmir 2.05 Ascot @6-4 Bet365

Prince’s Trust 3.50 Ascot @11-2 BetVictor

Dungannon 5.00 Ascot @8-1 William Hill

Invincible Gold 2.20 Newmarket @12-1 Paddy Power

Majestic Manner 2.55 Newmarket @12-1 Coral

Esoterique 3.30 Newmarket @6-1 Sportingbet

Newmarket Saturday Preview

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It’s Cambridgeshire day at Newmarket and the result of the consolation race on Friday indicated that there is no clear draw bias. That does not really help us with 35 runners to sort through but I’ve picked out a couple for each-way interest.

Niceofyoutotellme won at Newmarket in the spring for Ralph Beckett, his first start since running a dismal race in the consolation race at the corresponding meeting. That was his first run in a hood and the headgear was left on at Ascot in June when he ran a fair race to finish ninth in the Royal Hunt Cup. He was held up towards the rear at Goodwood last time and was never likely to get involved but a couple of months off should have freshened him up for this race.

My second selection is Buckstay who is well weighted with Extremity on Goodwood form. He was beaten a short-head by that horse over a mile trying to concede 10lbs in July and is now weighted to receive 1lb from the Hugo Palmer runner. There is a huge disparity in the odds for the duo, probably because of Buckstay’s modest third last time at Kempton. Maxime Guyon is an interesting booking for Peter Chapple-Hyam’s runner.

There appears to be plenty of confidence behind Sir Michael Stoute’s Sandy Cay in the opening nursery but I am sticking with Rosalie Bonheur after her game win at Salisbury. She was never travelling better than at the finish of that seven-furlong contest and she can complete a hat-trick for Clive Cox.

It has been a sad week for the Balding family with the passing of legendary National Hunt trainer Toby. He was no mean trainer on the flat either and was equally adept at educating jockeys, as Tony McCoy will testify. I am hoping that the family will have cause for minor celebration with the promising Elm Park in the Royal Lodge, although Nafaqa is the obvious threat. His Doncaster form looks smart after Toocoolforschool won the Mill Reef so easily last week.

Tiggy Wiggy should win the Cheveley Park but is not great value after a long season. Windshear ran a lifeless race at Newmarket today for the Hannon team after a similarly exhausting campaign.

There is a typically competitive card over at Haydock and I must give Chilworth Icon a mention in the big sprint. I tipped him for the Portland Handicap recently and he was a fast-finishing fifth. I am a bit worried that this five furlongs will be on the sharp side but he’s in great form and should go well at a good price.

Rosalie Bonheur 2.0 Newmarket @5-1 Paddy Power

Elm Park 2.35 Newmarket @3-1 BetVictor

Tiggy Wiggy 3.10 Newmarket @11-10 Bet365

Niceofyoutotellme 3.50 Newmarket @16-1 William Hill (each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4,5)

Buckstay 3.50 Newmarket @33-1 Ladbrokes (each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4,5)

Chilworth Icon 4.10 Haydock @14-1 Bet365 (each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4)

Newmarket Friday Preview

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Pallasator (13-8) and Mohatem (6-4) gave us a handy double on Thursday on the opening day of the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket. The quality shifts up a gear on Friday with two Group 2 races on a very competitive eight-race card starting at 1.40.

The opening Listed race looks like developing into a battle between Ryan Moore on Provenance and William Buick on Belle D’Or. Although both fillies have excellent form in the book, neither looks the easiest of rides. Sir Michael Stoute had to resort to the hood for Provenance after her disappointing Sandown defeat and Moore rode a very clever race on her to win at Haydock. I got the impression that there is more to come from the well-bred filly and she could just grab the spoils.

Lucida looks the class act in the Rockfel Stakes at 2.40 following her unlucky second in the Moyglare Stud Stakes behind Cursory Glance. The winner got first run on her that day and she ran on well to be beaten only a neck. If she reproduces that effort she should win.

There are some talented milers assembled for the Group 2 Joel Stakes including Outstrip in the blue of Godolphin. He was a smart two-year-old and treated The Great Gatsby with contempt at Doncaster before winning at the Breeders’ Cup. He has come up against Kingman in his last two races and finished within three lengths or so. The danger is the rapidly improving Wannabe Yours who had to be switched around runners to score at Goodwood. Both look worthy of support at decent prices.

Windshear just missed out on a place in the St Leger and ought to gain compensation in the Godolphin Stakes at 3.45. Hopefully he hasn’t forgotten how to win after finishing second four times in a row previously but he has much the best form.

We round off the day with a couple to cheer on in the Silver Cambridgeshire at 5.00. The sensible thing to do is probably to sit this one out and see if there is any significant draw advantage for Saturday’s big race but I’m going to take an each-way interest in Mange All and Sheila’s Buddy.

Mange All ran well last time out to beat all bar The Corsican at Doncaster. He has a slightly shorter trip here and should run well. Sheila’s Buddy was second here a year ago and his recent third at Newbury looked suspiciously like a prep run for another tilt at this big handicap.

Provenance 1.40 @3-1 Betfair

Lucida 2.40 @11-8 Bet365

Wannabe Yours 3.15 @11-2 William Hill

Outstrip 3.15 @9-1 BetVictor

Windshear 3.45 @6-4 Coral

Mange All 5.00 @5-1 Bet365

Sheila’s Buddy 5.00 @25-1 Coral (each-way)

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4