Tag: Kerrin McEvoy

Ballarat Cup Preview

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The $200,000 Ballarat Cup is the last black-type race of the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival 2014.

Bookmakers have chalked up Robert Smerdon’s Spinderbella as the favourite following her victory at Moonee Valley last time out under Glen Boss. The five-year-old mare is by Spinning World and is unbeaten at Ballarat after two previous victories. Connections will have been delighted with the draw in barrier three and Chad Schofield takes over the reins on Saturday.

Smerdon had originally intended running Spinderbella in the Group 2 Matriarch Stakes at Flemington but swerved that race due to the fast ground. He won this race in 1996 with McGuane and will also saddle Electric Fusion (drawn 17).

My idea of the winner is Dan O’Sullivan’s Tuscan Fire despite having to carry joint top weight of 60kg. The eight-year-old will have the assistance of champion jockey Kerrin McEvoy and will pop out from barrier one. He was a good fourth over a shorter trip Melbourne Cup Day and that should have put him spot on for this race.

Chris Waller saddles four-year-old Vilanova (drawn 2) while the first two home in the Ararat Cup, Mujadale and At First Sight, will clash again. Mujadale has much the better of the draw here and it would be no surprise to see the form confirmed.

The colours of OTI Racing have been prominent in recent weeks with the successes of Au Revoir and Renew. They are pinning their hopes of Count Of Limonade here, although trainer Mick Price has issued a warning that he will not run on fast ground. He was pulled out of the Group 2 Zipping Classic at Sandown last Saturday with a high temperature but the Moe Cup winner is reported to be back in excellent health. He finished fifth in the Bendigo Cup with Price insisting that he would have fared better on easier ground.

The tough mare Waltzing To Win could sneak into the frame with her low weight but I am siding with McEvoy to steer home Tuscan Fire with Mujadale good value for a place at around 10-1. T

Tuscan Fire @7.0 Sportsbet*

Mujadale @11.0 Sportsbet

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

* If your horse finishes runner-up in the Ballarat Cup, Sportsbet will refund your stake as a free bet up to a maximum $100.

Crown Oaks Preview

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It’s Ladies Day at the Melbourne Cup Carnival on Thursday and 12 fillies contest the Group 1 Crown Oaks in race 8 on the card.

If you put any faith in statistics at all, you will probably not want to look any further than the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes for finding the winner here. Remarkably, 14 of the previous 20 winners have come via that race.

Unfortunately, that only narrows the field down to six but the first three of those are likely to be the relevant runners here. Thunder Lady came out on top ahead of Godolphin’s Abduction with Golconda running on in eye-catching style in fourth place. Tommy Berry rides Thunder Lady from barrier eight and he daughter of Mastercraftsman will surely have no problems lasting this trip.

Godolphin felt that Abduction saw too much daylight that day but she looks a very free-running sort and I am not entirely sure that this longer distance will suit her. She could not have a better rider than Kerrin McEvoy to nurse her home but I believe Thunder Lady will again come out on top. She is trained by John Sargent who won the race last year with Kirramosa.

At the available odds, I will also take an each-way bet on the fourth horse Golconda. She was a long way off the pace and had to race wide into the straight. Although she was never closer than at the finish, she did not lose any ground on the winner during the final sprint. At odds of around 25-1, she looks worth an interest.

Set Square was impressive in the Ethereal Stakes while Go Indy Go will have plenty of supporters after finishing third against the colts last time out. The bookmakers are having a hard time finding a clear favourite with Go Indy Go grouped with Robert Smerdon’s Lumosty and Crafty.

Lumosty won her maiden by nine lengths but could only manage eighth in the Guineas. She bounced back to form to win the Group 2 Fillies Classic by two and a half lengths last time. Crafty was game in defeat in the Edward Manifold Stakes and the Caulfield Classic. Both races were won by Smerdon’s Fontein Ruby who is also in the field but relatively friendless in the betting after fading last time.

Thunder Lady @7.70 Bet365

Golconda @26.0 Bet365

Each-way 1/4 odds, 1,2,3

Myer Classic Preview

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The last of four Group 1 races at Flemington on Saturday is the $500,000 Myer Classic with a maximum field of 16 headed by Sweet Idea.

Gai Waterhouse trains the tough daughter of Snitzel who refused to be passed in the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield last time. Although that was only a Group 2, it does look the best form on offer here and several of her vanquished rivals are back for another crack at her here.

The bookmakers have installed Tristarc fourth May’s Dream as the favourite to gain her revenge. She came from well off the pace and was forced to run wide into the straight but never looked like landing a blow. Darren Weir trains the filly who won the Australasian Oaks and will start from barrier 11 while Sweet Idea is in the inside berth. That seems to set up a similar scenario to Caulfield with Sweet Idea likely to play “catch me if you can”.

Tommy Berry will try to make every post a winning one on the four-year-old who already has two Group 2 races under her belt. She came close to Group 1 success when runner-up in the Memsie Stakes and fourth in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes.

Chris Waller’s Catkins was beaten by her stablemate Red Tracer in this race last year but looks well held on third in the Tristarc. Damien Oliver has the ride on the daughter of Dubawi who had a perfect position to launch a challenge that day and there cannot have been any real excuses.

Girl Guide finished in second place and had a good sight of the leader from a long way out without being able to close her down. The Robert Smerdon-trained Politeness finished well to take fourth and connections are convinced that she will improve with a more even gallop. The unplaced Diamond Drille and Enquare will struggle to get involved in the finish but the one that caught my eye was Girl In Flight.

The grey does not have particularly inspiring form figures but ran on well in the home straight under hands and heels. She was always running into a pocket and could arguably have finished third with a clear passage. Kerrin McEvoy takes the ride on her but she has received a terrible draw in barrier 17. She is showing at around 40-1 on the Tote as a result and could be one for a little each-way on the day.

Solicit has fared much better in barrier five for local trainers Matthew Ellerton and Simon Zahra. She got no run at all in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap and is better judged on her second to Dear Demi in the Group 2 Stocks Stakes at Moonee Valley.

Sweet Idea @6.50 Sportsbet

Girl In Flight @21.0 Bet365 Non runner

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3

Victoria Derby Preview

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The $1.5million Victoria Derby has attracted a maximum field at Flemington on Saturday but that has not stopped punters piling in to back the Gai Waterhouse-trained Hampton Court.

Waterhouse trained the winner of this race back in 1995 with Nothin’ Leica Dane and Hampton Court has followed a very similar route. Both horses won the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick prior to coming here and the Melbourne Cup winning trainer is typically bullish about his prospects.

His victory over First Seal and Sweynesse certainly reads well with the latter running a decent race to finish eighth behind Adelaide in the Cox Plate last weekend. Hampton Court is by Redoute’s Choice and this will be a new trip for him. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy will also have to plot a passage through this large field from barrier eleven. McEvoy has never ridden a Victoria Derby winner and this will be his first ride on Hampton Court so there are reasons for opposing the short-priced favourite.

Damien Oliver has won this race four times and will fancy his chances aboard Preferment from barrier 6. The colt is still a maiden after six races but Chris Waller has fitted the blinkers for Saturday following his narrow defeat by Nozomi in the Geelong Classic.

One of the best trials for this race was the Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase won by Moonovermanhattan. Craig Newitt faces a similar problem to McEvoy from barrier twelve but his mount overcame a wide draw to win last time and likes to be up with the pace. He was always tracking the leaders in the Vase and kept on well up the straight. He should confirm placings with the New-Zealand trained Atmosphere who was a length and three-quarters away in second but the unlucky horse was Bondeiger.

Danny O’Brien trains the War Pass colt who was shuffled back early on in the Vase. He attempted to make up ground turning for home but was almost brought to a standstill on the bend when colliding with a rival. It was to his credit that he stayed on again to be beaten only four lengths in seventh place. He is drawn in barrier 1 with Atmosphere in barrier 4 and I fancy his chances of turning the tables on that one.

Bondeiger had won his previous two starts and has been well supported this week in anticipation of a bold showing. I think it will be difficult to keep Moonovermanhattan out of the frame despite his draw and both he and Bondeiger represent good each-way chances against the favourite.

Moonovermanhattan @8-1 Ladbrokes

Bondeiger @9-1 Bet365

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

George Main Stakes Preview 

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The Group 1 George Main Stakes at Royal Randwick on Saturday is set to be an intriguing clash between trail-blazing Panzer Division and the fast finishing Lucia Valentina.

The last three-year-old to win this race was Viscount in 2001 but plenty of punters believe that Panzer Division will be tough to beat. Paul Messara’s colt was backed from 6-1 to 7-2 earlier in the week and receives weight from all of his rivals. The eight barrier is not ideal but I am more concerned with his lack of experience at this level. This will be only his fourth appearance and he is up against some well-established Group 1 performers.

The pick of them could be Lucia Valentina who came from last to first to beat Tiger Trees decisively in the Group 2 Tramway Stakes last time out. The biggest worry for supporters of the four-year-old is that she did not run well on her second start back last term.

Trainer Kris Lees admits that is a concern, especially with Lucia Valentina not being the most robust of mares. I regard Kerrin McEvoy as one of the best jockeys in the world and he takes the ride on Saturday. Assuming Lucia Valentina is fit and well, she must go close to repeating her Tramway Stakes victory.

The long-term target is apparently the Caulfield Cup, although the shorter Cox Plate could come into consideration if she performs well enough at the weekend and in the Turnbull Stakes. Lucia Valentina already has a Group 1 victory under her belt with the Vinery Stud Stakes. She is well enough drawn in barrier 6 and looks a decent bet at around 5-1.

Chris Waller’s Royal Descent is another Group 1 winner in the field and has run creditably in defeat when second in the Warwick Stakes and Chelmsford Stakes. Sacred Falls has been the best backed horse outside of Panzer Division and could even start favourite on the day. His recent races have been steady if not spectacular but Waller is anticipating some improvement. He has the one stall with Zac Purton flying in for the ride.

The best outsider is Teronado who is in great form at present. He came from way off the pace to finish second at Eagle Farm before winning impressively at Doomben last time out. Those races were in a lower grade but he is perfectly drawn in barrier five and should go well under Chris Munce.

Lucia Valentina @6.0 Bet365

Teronado @18.0 Bet365 (each-way)