It’s All About The Fillies On Crown Oaks Day

A huge Melbourne Cup Day crowd is almost a given due to the city’s public holiday on the first Tuesday of November. But there’s no gazetted day off on the Thursday of the Melbourne Cup Carnival week. In 2004, that didn’t stop a staggering number of 110,677 racegoers turning out to watch the VRC Oaks.

Over the past dozen years, the crowd numbers have almost halved for Ladies Day, but more than 60,000 will still head out to Flemington this year – many of who will still be sending an SMS to the boss lamenting the misfortune at being struck down so suddenly by illness! As a race day, it pales somewhat compared to the other three days of Australia’s ultimate racing festival. The AUD $1,000,000 Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m) for the three-year-old fillies is the main event, supported by a pair of Group 3 races and a handful of Listed events.

Star power rules in day’s feature

The oldest fillies’ classic in Australia, the VRC Oaks was first contested in 1861. The presence of the names of some of the winners from those early days is slightly dubious as the 1864, 1868, 1870 and 1877 editions featured only two runners. Initially run over 12 furlongs, the distance was changed to 2400m with the introduction of metrics in racing in 1972, before becoming a 2500m race the following year to provide a longer run out of the straight before the first turn.

With the fillies untried at this distance, history shows that star quality is often enough to carry winners over the line as shown by the presence of Light Fingers, Surround, Rose Of Kingston, Research and Miss Finland on the honour roll. Short-price favourites are common in the Oaks, and that’s the case this year with Yankee Rose almost prohibitively priced at $1.65 (with Ladbrokes).

Yankee Rose dominates the market

That’s not to say she won’t be a worthy winner after a roller coaster ride alongside her trainer David Vandyke. The All-American filly was terrible in trackwork heading into this prep, and after finishing sixth in the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill in September, connections feared she would never deliver on her immense promise. But she bounced back to be just pipped in the G1 Flight Stakes before winning the G1 Champion Stakes (200m) at Randwick.

Yankee Rose then turned in a stunning run to place third behind Winx and Hartnell in the Cox Plate to smash her rating through the 110-barrier. Vandyke, who recently shifted his base from Sydney to Queensland’s Sunshine Coast, has overcome drug and alcohol demons of his own, so they make a resilient pair deserving of more G1 success. Gate 13 isn’t ideal, but she simply wins.

It’s the day for the greys

There may not be much value in the Crown Oaks, but a couple of others on the card appeal at more generous prices. The third of the day is one of the most unique races on the Australian turf calendar. The Subzero Handicap (1400m) is a benchmark 90 affair reserved exclusively for greys! The superbly-named #4 Murt The Flirt ($4.60 with William Hill) won last time out at Caulfield and is drawn/weighted better than his main challengers, Sydney pair Rock Forthe Ladies and Onerous.

The Listed Mumm Stakes (1000m) also looks an intriguing affair with the return of injury-prone Terravista as he takes on the low-flying Hellbent from the all-conquering Darren Weir stable. The sprint fields have been heading for the outside fence this week, so the wide draw (12) is ideal for Hellbent. Take any price in the black for him to make it three in a row.

Crown Oaks Preview

It’s Ladies Day at the Melbourne Cup Carnival on Thursday and 12 fillies contest the Group 1 Crown Oaks in race 8 on the card.

If you put any faith in statistics at all, you will probably not want to look any further than the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes for finding the winner here. Remarkably, 14 of the previous 20 winners have come via that race.

Unfortunately, that only narrows the field down to six but the first three of those are likely to be the relevant runners here. Thunder Lady came out on top ahead of Godolphin’s Abduction with Golconda running on in eye-catching style in fourth place. Tommy Berry rides Thunder Lady from barrier eight and he daughter of Mastercraftsman will surely have no problems lasting this trip.

Godolphin felt that Abduction saw too much daylight that day but she looks a very free-running sort and I am not entirely sure that this longer distance will suit her. She could not have a better rider than Kerrin McEvoy to nurse her home but I believe Thunder Lady will again come out on top. She is trained by John Sargent who won the race last year with Kirramosa.

At the available odds, I will also take an each-way bet on the fourth horse Golconda. She was a long way off the pace and had to race wide into the straight. Although she was never closer than at the finish, she did not lose any ground on the winner during the final sprint. At odds of around 25-1, she looks worth an interest.

Set Square was impressive in the Ethereal Stakes while Go Indy Go will have plenty of supporters after finishing third against the colts last time out. The bookmakers are having a hard time finding a clear favourite with Go Indy Go grouped with Robert Smerdon’s Lumosty and Crafty.

Lumosty won her maiden by nine lengths but could only manage eighth in the Guineas. She bounced back to form to win the Group 2 Fillies Classic by two and a half lengths last time. Crafty was game in defeat in the Edward Manifold Stakes and the Caulfield Classic. Both races were won by Smerdon’s Fontein Ruby who is also in the field but relatively friendless in the betting after fading last time.

Thunder Lady @7.70 Bet365

Golconda @26.0 Bet365

Each-way 1/4 odds, 1,2,3