Tag: Ed Dunlop

Lincoln Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With Cheltenham now behind us, Flat racing fans will be getting excited about the new turf season. Apparently Gleneagles has been catching pigeons at Ballydoyle and has been backed off the boards for the 2000 Guineas while the powers-that-be have been tinkering with the jockeys’ championship dates. Of more immediate interest is the Lincoln Handicap, the traditional cavalry charge at Town Moor.

There will be all of the usual debate about the draw and the going and the last four results makes you wonder whether or not it is wise to get involved. They have been 16-1, 25-1, 20-1 and 20-1. Prior to that there were two well-backed favourites in Expresso Star and Penitent. They were trained by John Gosden and William Haggas respectively so that is a good place to start.

At present, the Haggas-trained Mange All is 6-1 favourite with the Gosden-trained Gm Hopkins at 8-1. Mange All won a decent prize at Ascot in July when just getting up to beat American Hope by a neck. He ran a good race under a penalty next time when beaten by The Corsican and rounded off his three-year-old season by finishing fourth to Gm Hopkins in the Silver Cambridgeshire. He is 3lbs better off for three and three-quarter lengths with the winner.

Gm Hopkins was put up 9lbs for that win and was only fourth at York before finishing third at Nottingham off the same mark. Both trainers obviously know what they are doing but neither really appeals at single figure prices.

Ed Dunlop has an interesting contender in Zarwaan, a winner over six furlongs at Haydock in July and runner-up to Chatez in the Silver Bowl at the same course. He then ran a fine fifth of 30 in the Britannia at Royal Ascot before finishing fourth at Newmarket in a Listed race.

Last season we tipped Gabrial’s Kaka with trainer Richard Fahey quite bullish about his chances in the build-up to the race. He was there with every chance three furlongs out but faded back into sixth place. He won the Newbury Spring Cup next time out and had a crack at most of the big mile handicaps after that. He was badly drawn on his final start and now races off a 6lbs higher mark than last season.

Before rushing in on him, it is worth noting that he is also entered in the Irish Lincoln and is a possible for the Doncaster Mile. Just to confuse matters further, stable companion Gabrial also holds an entry her. He would be a blot on the handicap on his best form but he has been tried in everything except the boat race in recent seasons. He showed that he still retains his ability when winning at Leicester in October but he is still 11lbs lower than his previous best.

Mindurownbusiness and Belgian Bill are others worthy of note. The former did this column a favour when winning at Wolverhampton recently in the trial race and gets in here on a 2lbs lower mark. Belgian Bill has been running with great credit in Dubai but neither is proven on soft ground. Zarwaan gets a tentative vote at this stage.

Zarwaan @12-1 William Hill

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Japan Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

European runners have failed to win the Japan Cup since 2005 and they appear to face a difficult task again this year. Melbourne Cup fourth Simenon and Canadian International winner Joshua Tree are joined by Dunaden but all three have been handed a double-figure draw.

Statistics suggest that this may not be too much of a disadvantage but it hard to be excited about the task facing Johnny Murtagh from stall 17 on Joshua Tree. Ed Dunlop’s horse has been around the block a few times and was chalking up a record third success in the International last month. He will presumably be chased up to the leaders early on as staying is his game.

Dunaden, winner of the Melbourne Cup in 2011 and the Caulfield Cup in 2012, has been unable to recapture his best form this season. He ran respectably without ever threatening to get involved at Flemington, eventually finishing eighth. He may have lost a little of his speed and it will be interesting to see what tactics are adopted by Jamie Spencer on him from stall 10.

Simenon ran a terrific race to finish fourth in the Melbourne Cup, looking a possible winner when looming up turning for home. He galloped on well enough under Richard Hughes but couldn’t go with Fiorente in the closing stages. As a horse that has won over two miles and six furlongs, you’d have to think that this mile and a half at the top level is going to be too short. However, I cannot resist the 20-1 put up by Corals as an each-way bet, even from stall 14.

The bookmakers have this race as a match between the grey Gold Ship and last year’s winner Gentildonna. Gold Ship won the Japanese 2000 Guineas and St Leger last season and won the Grade 1 Takarazuka Kinen in June. He is not a straight forward individual and is known to have his off days, notably when only fifth in the Tenno Sho Spring. Jockey Hiroyuki Uchida was quoted as saying “Sometimes he doesn’t feel like racing”. Hardly encouraging for anyone thinking of taking the 2-1!

When he does feel like racing he is very good indeed, as demonstrated by an easy victory over Gentildonna, a run which poses questions about last year’s winner. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride the four-year-old mare who is yet to win since this race a year ago. Japanese Derby winner Eishin Flash is another with the form to win this but was also well beaten last time.

Simenon (each-way) 20-1 Coral

Haydock and Newcastle Preview 6th September

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It is proving difficult to predict the runners for this weekend’s big ante-post races, let alone forecast the winner! Earlier in the week it seemed that Al Kazeem was destined to swerve the Irish Champion Stakes but Roger Charlton is now doing a rain dance in the hope of a bringing a deluge on Ireland through Friday night. If that devious plans works, his stable star will renew rivalry with York conqueror Declaration Of War. John Gosden’s The Fugue could beat them both if the rain stays away but with “definite possible” now an accepted quote from trainers we will have to keep our powder dry until the weekend.

For most of the summer I tend to avoid maiden races but at this time of year there are some cracking bets to be had. Two-year-old races at Newmarket, Newbury and Goodwood can throw up some really eye-catching performances and the form often stands up on lesser tracks. Haydock does not really fall into that category but I will be supporting Coral Mist in the 2.30 on Friday after her fine debut run at Goodwood recently.

Trained by Charlie Hills, she was sent off at 33-1 in the race won by Valonia. After settling towards the rear she flew up the near rail in the closing stages to finish third and looks a decent filly in the making. She would be odds-on but for the presence of Merletta who was not beaten far by Lucky Kristale in the Lowther Stakes at York. That was a Group 2 but may not have been the strongest renewal and Merletta was having her third start. I’d prefer to go with the potential of Coral Mist and she rates a decent bet at anything better than evens.

Breeding is a funny thing isn’t it? Imagine you were given a filly by Galileo out of Ouija Board. You’d be thinking about winning the Oaks perhaps? Wrong. Try the Happy 30th Birthday Michelle Stevens Handicap at Yarmouth off a rating of 59! Filia Regina will ever scale the heights of her illustrious parents but she took a small step in the right direction when winning that event last time, and she did so “pulling a cart” (not literally of course).

Jamie Spencer had to take a pull on her three furlongs out and just about ricked his neck checking on his rivals before shaking the reins to win by eight lengths. Her rivals may not have amounted to much but she runs at Newcastle tomorrow with just a 6lb penalty. I’ll be taking whatever price is chalked up early and hoping to land a nice double to fund the weekend betting activity!

Coral Mist

Filia Regina

April 10th Nottingham Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The flat racing turf season has started, albeit with a bit of a whimper. The Lincoln Handicap was postponed and then provided a 20-1 winner to kick-off the so-called “Spring Double” completed by Aurora’s Encore at 66-1 in the Grand National! I don’t think even Mystic Meg will have come up with those two!

The National Hunt season still has Punchestown and the Betfred Gold Cup to come but the big flat stables are starting to roll out some quality animals this week. A midweek Nottingham card wouldn’t normally provide much excitement but there are some genuine group class horses in action on Wednesday.

The first of them is Spirit Quartz in the 3.10. The five-year-old son of Invincible Spirit was second to Aussie raider Ortensia in both the Group 2 King George Stakes and the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes last summer. On the latter occasion he had Humidor only a length and a half behind him and that horse re-opposes tomorrow. Spirit Quartz finished his season when stuck in the mud at Longchamp, this time with Humidor in front of him. I am prepared to overlook that as being a race too many. What is slightly worrying is that Robert Cowell’s horse has already been unplaced twice at Meydan in March behind Shea Shea. Hopefully the surface just didn’t suit him and he can return to his best now he is back on turf.

Another horse that I have been looking forward to is Mark Johnston’s Sir Graham Wade who is unleashed in the 3.40. He won six races last season, winning his first handicap off a mark of 80 and closing his campaign with victory in a Listed race in France. He won on everything from firm to heavy, including the Mallard Stakes at Doncaster. Kieren Fallon rode him that day and somehow managed to win cleverly in a slowly run race where four lengths covered all 12 runners at the finish. Usually that is the sign of a poor race but Sir Graham Wade won despite the slow pace and has already proved that he is better than a handicapper. Not surprisingly, Johnston is thinking along the lines of the Cup races this year so it will be a disappointment if he can’t win tomorrow.

In the 4.40 race, the word from Ed Dunlop’s stable is that Singersongwriter is better than a handicapper. Bet365 went 7-4 briefly on Tuesday but that was taken before the ink had dried and he is now showing at 10-11. That might seem a bit skinny for his first run of the season under top weight but only time will tell.

The meeting should begin with an odds-on win for Cumani and Fallon with Elhaarne and jockey Ryan Moore has an interesting book of rides. Andrew Balding also has a couple of interesting runners in handicaps with Benzanno (4.10) and Debdebdeb (5.10). It looks a well above average card for Nottingham and will be worth studying as a source of future winners.

Spirit Quartz Evens Bet365
Sir Graham Wade 6-4 William Hill
Singersongwriter 10-11 Bet365