Cheltenham ante-post update

With the weights now out for the eleven handicap races at the Cheltenham festival, it is time to seek out a bit of early value. That is easier said than done with over 1,000 entries to wade through and the situation is further complicated with so many fancied runners not certain to get a run.

One horse that I have been following from the flat is Space Ship, now trained in Ireland. He was a good handicapper for John Gosden and is slowly improving over hurdles after three races. His flat form suggests that he will improve for a faster surface after failing to pick up in the soft ground that he has recently encountered.

The race for him is the Fred Winter and he can be backed at 16-1 (non-runner/no bet) with Bet365. He looked set to win at Gowran Park last time but just got stuck in the ground between the last two.

Another horse that I have been hoping to catch right is Cause Of Causes. He was just short of Champion Hurdle class last season but won the Ladbroke Hurdle in great style and has been slow to learn his new career over fences. JP McManus bought him last year and he’s come close in his two starts.

Whilst he can hardly be said to have crept in under the radar, his chase rating is still 7lbs less than his official figure over hurdles. The big problem is that he has no less than seven festival entries! My own preference (and that’s all it is) is for the Byrne Group Plate in which he has a featherweight 10st 4lb to carry. 12-1 (NR-No bet) seems worth a bet although the odds aren’t that great that I’ve even picked the right race!

I’m also going to take the 10-1 about Activial for the Triumph Hurdle. The offer of NR/No bet takes out the risk factor while Harry Fry debates whether to keep him for Aintree. I was impressed with his Kempton victory in a race that regularly throws up genuine Triumph contenders and I would estimate his chances at around 6 or 7-1 if he gets the go-ahead. He’ll give us a strong team with our ante-post wager on Le Rocher (14-1).

Space Ship at 16-1 (Fred Winter) Bet365*

Cause Of Causes at 12-1 (Byrne Group Plate) Bet365*

Activial at 10-1 (Triumph Hurdle) Bet365*

*All non-runner – no bet

Newmarket July Meeting Thursday 11th July

After Royal Ascot, the Newmarket July course offers a far more relaxed day at the races. There is almost a carnival atmosphere for the three-day meeting but there is still plenty of top class racing to enjoy.

Several horses that narrowly missed out on Ascot glory turn out on day one. The opening Bahrain Trophy has been won for the past two seasons by John Gosden and he is represented by Feel Like Dancing, second in the Queen’s Vase. He looked like winning before Leading Light pulled out extra in the closing stages.

Dare To Achieve has been chalked up as favourite after winning an egg and spoon race at Pontefract so I’m tempted to take the 100-30 about Feel Like Dancing. He should hold Boite and Ray Ward on Ascot running and will almost certainly be held up for a little longer here.

Aidan O’Brien’s Sir John Hawkins will surely go off a warm favourite for the Coventry Stakes after finishing third to stable companion War Command. Even I (a confirmed sceptic about quotes for the classics on two-year-old races) was tempted to dip into the ante-post market for some 10-1 War Command after that so I’m hoping SJH will complement the form.

The Princess of Wales’s Stakes has got me scratching my head to find inspiration. Only seven runners but plenty of pros and cons. I had nearly convinced myself that old Wigmore Hall could have too much pace for these but I’ve since read that his trainer doubts he will be fit enough! Grandeur would be interesting with a race under his belt too whilst Danadana has a new partner in Ryan Moore.

Danadana won at Chester after trailing the field early on and then turned in a poor effort at Sandown. His style of racing should suit Ryan Moore so I’ll risk him at 9-2.

The race of the day is the handicap at 3.15. Plenty will regard Matrooh as a good thing after finishing third to Remote and Baltic Knight but he is stepping up in trip. I cannot leave out my old friend Space Ship who ran a stormer at Ascot to finish second. He’s on virtually the same mark as at Epsom previously and he could win this.

I also have a feeling that Goodwood Mirage is a lot better than he has so far revealed. Dettori hasn’t really got after him in his races yet and this could be the acid test. I’ll take Goodwood Mirage and Space Ship against the field.

Montiridge has to be the selection in the 4.25. This race had a lot of quality entries but has cut up badly and anything close to evens will do me for a horse that got within a head of winning the Jersey Stakes.

Feel Like Dancing 100-30 Skybet
Sir John Hawkins 9-4 Coral
Danadana 9-2 Skybet
Space Ship 9-1 Stan James
Goodwood Mirage 10-1 Ladbrokes
Montiridge 5-6 Skybet