Tag: Paul Nicholls

Taunton Wednesday Preview

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The pick of the National Hunt action comes from Taunton on Wednesday with a six-race card starting at 1.40.

The first race is a three-mile maiden hurdle restricted to five-year-olds and upwards so it is no surprise to see some real chasing types set to line up. The Chuckmeister won a point-to-point in Ireland and has now joined the Paul Nicholls stable. He is related to an old favourite of mine in Moorcroft Boy, a gallant winner of the Scottish National. He may not reach those heights but he jumps and stays and can get the better of Local Show who has shown decent form in similar events.

Vago Collonges will be a popular fancy to score for the same stable in the following novices’ hurdle at 2.10. He would be a certainty if able to reproduce his 2013 Champion Bumper form at Aintree but he has proved to be very frustrating since. Nicholls is applying the hood for the first time on Wednesday but I am sticking with the hat-trick seeking Rock The Kasbah.

He represents the Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson team and looks a very straight-forward ride. He tracked the leaders last time before picking them up in the home straight and winning nicely.

The handicap chase at 2.40 brings together a couple of horses that arguably should have won last time out but for their jumping. Pinkneys Pride loomed up on the outside full of running at Wincanton and looked unfortunate to knuckle on landing. He had raced very keenly and got close to a couple of fences but he was entitled to after a lengthy lay-off.

The danger is Alan King’s Money For Nothing who ploughed through the second-last here behind Un Ajou in December. He was slow at the last three fences and it didn’t look the greatest race in the world so I’m siding with the top weight, Pinkneys Pride.

David Pipe can land the handicap hurdle at 3.10 with the grey Bladoun. I don’t like backing horses that have been clobbered by the handicapper and this one is up 13lbs. However, Tom Scudamore had practically pulled him up before the line and he was higher in the handicap a couple of seasons ago. You could make a case for several of the others but I am most fearful of Mr Fitzroy who produced a 25-1 shock at Lingfield and is only up 5lbs.

The Chuckmeister 1.40 @2-1 Betfair

Rock The Kasbah 2.10 @4-5 Betfair

Pinkneys Pride 2.40 @5-2 Coral

Bladoun 3.10 @15-8 Paddy Power

Newbury Monday Preview

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We had to settle for second place in both of the big Christmas features with Dynaste (King George 8-1) and Benvolio (Welsh National 14-1). The show moves on to Newbury on Monday with a decent card featuring the Challow Hurdle and the Mandarin Chase.

The Grade 1 Challow Hurdle has attracted a top quality field with the more established novices Blaklion, Parlour Games and Vyta Du Roc taken on by Arpege D’Alene. It should be close between Parlour Games and Blaklion on Cheltenham form but I am going to take a chance on the lightly-raced Arpege D’Alene. It looked a decent race that he won decisively at Ascot last month despite drifting out to 12-1. This will obviously be a tougher test but Newbury is one of the fairest tracks in the country and he can spring a surprise.

The Mandarin Chase can go the way of Alan King’s Ziga Boy who beat Silver Commander at Wincanton last time out. That was only the sixth start of his career so there is plenty of scope for improvement and a 9lbs rise may not stop him. The main danger is probably the consistent Knockranrawley.

Morito Du Berlais will have plenty of supporters after finishing third in a hot race at Haydock last time. He did not hurdle with any great fluency up the home straight so it was no disgrace to finish less than three lengths behind On Tour. I am going to oppose him with Wincanton winner Polamco who showed signs of inexperience before drawing clear of Muckle Roe. He has also gone up in the handicap but receives 7lbs from the Nicholls runner and that could prove significant.

The handicap chase at 1.05 is going to take some sorting out but I’m siding with Phone Home who should have won here last time out. He held a good lead at the last but lost concentration in front and allowed Bertie Boru to get up and beat him. I expect Brendan Powell to hold on to him a little longer this time before delivering his challenge.

Nicky Henderson can land a first and last race double with Top Notch and Clean Sheet. Both are exciting additions to the powerful Lambourn yard and have Cheltenham aspirations. Top Notch won both of his races in France comfortably while Clean Sheet was only beaten through fitness at Sandown last time out. Nicholls can also complete a double on the day with Far West in the 2.45 after a couple of promising efforts over fences.

Top Notch 12.30 @10-11 Paddy Power

Phone Home 1.05 @5-1 Paddy Power

Ziga Boy 1.35 @5-2 Ladbrokes

Arpege D’Alene 2.10 @6-1 Ladbrokes

Far West 2.45 @9-4 Bet365

Polamco 3.15 @5-1 Coral

Clean Sheet 3.50 @10-11 Paddy Power

Tara can spark Sandown double for Nicholls

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Sandown warms up for Saturday’s Tingle Creek Chase card with six races on Friday opening at 12.50 with a juvenile hurdle.

The form horse here has to be Baraka De Thaix after his fine third in the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham last month. He made a bad mistake at the second last but stuck on gamely up the hill behind Golden Doyen. There aren’t many better four-year-olds on the scene at the moment and David Pipe’s grey should score.

The one I fear most is the Andrew Balding-trained newcomer Storm Force Ten. He was a decent handicapper on the flat, winning a good prize at the Chester May meeting. If he transfers that form to the jumps, he could make up into a decent prospect in the famous Waley-Cohen colours of Long Run.

The Grade 2 Winter Hurdle has attracted only five runners but four of them are unbeaten over hurdles. Nicky Henderson’s Vyta Du Roc is the obvious favourite after winning at Cheltenham last time but I am more taken with Tara Point. The grey is a daughter of Kayf Tara and has not been off the bridle to win her two starts for Paul Nicholls. It won’t be plain sailing with Ordo Ab Chao and Shantou Bob also in the field but Tara Point looks worth a bet at around 3-1.

The Nicholls and Twiston-Davies combination could make a quick return to the winners’ enclosure in the following handicap chase with Black Thunder. He was a promising novice last season and put up an excellent effort when second at Ascot in the United House Handicap Chase. He had the subsequent Hennessy Gold Cup third Merry King behind him that day.

He was beaten fair and square by Corrin Wood at Warwick last season but I am not convinced that he was at his best in the heavy ground. He looked far happier at Ascot last time and can make his fitness count against the McCain horse who is having his first run since the RSA Chase in March.

The final race on the card looks booked for Henderson’s Theinval who escapes a penalty for a win in a Conditional Jockeys’ race at Kempton last time. That was a big improvement on his first run, a common theme with Henderson’s horses this season. The one I fear most is Coup De Grace who ran on well to finish fourth at Cheltenham in a competitive handicap last time. He could be worth an each-way bet at a decent price.

Baraka De Thaix 12.50 @4-7 Betfair

Tara Point 1.55 @3-1 Coral

Black Thunder 2.30 @8-11 Skybet

Theinval 3.30 @9-4 Coral

Coup de Grace @8-1 Coral each-way

Doncaster Tuesday Preview

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The racing this week is a bit of an anti-climax after three days of top quality action from Cheltenham but I’ve picked out a couple of horses from Doncaster on Tuesday.

The first is an unraced novice hurdler called Annalulu who makes her debut for Highclere Racing and new trainer Paul Nicholls at 1.20. She is a daughter of Hurricane Run out of a mare by Loup Solitaire and was a pretty useful performer on the flat in France.

She won on her fourth start in a modest three-runner event over a mile and three-quarters and went on to win a very competitive handicap over the same distance at Deauville in July. She was due to run on Monday at Leicester but was taken out because of the heavy ground and should find conditions more suitable at Town Moor.

They don’t look a great bunch in opposition on Tuesday with Witch From Rome the pick on form after three placed efforts. The Tim Easterby pair were moderate on the flat but Dan Skelton’s Boss Des Mottes could be a threat. He is another French import but he will have to be useful to concede 7lbs to Annalulu.

My second bet of the day is Shadows Lengthen in the handicap chase at 2.50. If you’ve seen footage of this one’s victory at Wetherby last month you will be very tempted by Paddy Power offering 6-1 in their early price list. He is up 8lbs for a seven-length win over Off The Ground, although he could have doubled the winning margin if he’d been ridden out.

That was an impressive performance after a prep run in a handicap hurdle at the same course two weeks’ earlier. Brian Harding took up the running with three to jump and had his rivals in deep trouble from that point on. He was carrying 11st 11lb and only has an extra pound on his back tomorrow.

It’s quite a competitive event with the consistent Violets Bay running for Harry Redknapp and Crazy Jack making his chasing bow after a good run over hurdles. Uriah Heep won on his first start over fences for Alan King while Robbie is another with each-way claims after a good run at Musselburgh. I just liked the way Shadows Lengthen travelled and jumped at Wetherby and expect him to start a lot shorter than 6-1.

Annalulu 1.20 Doncaster @6-5 Betfair

Shadows Lengthen 2.50 Doncaster @6-1 Paddy Power

Arkle Chase Preview

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The latest declaration stage has at least whittled down the numbers for the opening day of the Cheltenham festival on Tuesday. The highlight of the day is the Champion Hurdle and JP McManus has dug into his deep pockets to supplement 13-year-old Captain Cee Bee.

It says a lot for the horse’s constitution that he is still fast enough to set the pace for Champion hurdlers. He was only beaten around three lengths when setting the pace in the Irish Champion Hurdle by Hurricane Fly and Our Conor. The injury scare over My Tent Or Yours seems to have been overcome so the race is set up for a sprint finish. I shall be fascinated to see who kicks for home first with The New One also best held up for a late run.

The Champion Hurdle does not strike me as a betting race and I’m more interested in the Arkle Chase. 18 have been declared for the two-mile novice event and I’m sure that Champagne Fever is vulnerable over this trip. He has won at the past two festivals and full credit to Willie Mullins if he has got the grey in tip-top shape again.

I wouldn’t be backing him at the current prices and much prefer the claims of Dodging Bullets. He suffered his first defeat over fences when just caught by Module in desperate ground at Newbury. Bookmakers were un-moved by that performance but I felt it marked him out as a serious chaser. Module ran a stinker on his previous start at Huntingdon but was only beaten a head by Somersby on his seasonal debut.

Raya Star was two and a half lengths back in third, closer than he had been at Cheltenham in November. The going was good that day and the ground seems to be drying out and may even be good to soft by Tuesday. Dodging Bullets looked very smart when seeing off Grandouet by ten lengths in December, especially when you consider he was conceding 6lbs.

I cannot have Grandouet here on level weights and yet he is only a couple of points longer than Dodging Bullets in the betting. Nicholls also runs Hinterland who beat Grandouet by a neck at Sandown. I don’t think there is much doubt that Nicholls regards “Dodger” as the better of the two and he looks worth a bet at 6-1.

Dodging Bullets at 6-1 Bet365

Imperial Cup Preview

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Sandown’s Imperial Cup has become a qualifier for the County Hurdle at Cheltenham this season with several of the leading fancies needing to win to earn a place in the Cheltenham field. It is a decent prize in itself with £70,000 in prize money but the focus of attention this year is supposed “handicap good thing”, Regal Encore.

The gelding was bought by JP McManus after an impressive bumper victory and finished second at the Cheltenham festival last year. Anthony Honeyball’s six-year-old got off the mark over hurdles at Plumpton but was then surprisingly beaten by 66-1 chance Seeyouatmidnight at Hexham. Connections must have been scratching their heads after that but the run was clearly better than they first thought.

Seeyouatmidnight has since won two races, the most recent being the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock. The gelding’s victims included Celestial Halo, runner-up in the World Hurdle last season. There is a world of difference between a two-mile novice at Hexham and a three-mile Grade 2 event but Regal Encore would appear to be leniently treated on 130 with Seeyouatmidnight now on 155.

Not surprisingly, the bookmakers have put Regal Encore in at around 3-1 favourite and he could be shorter if the field cuts up. Other Cheltenham hopefuls include Lac Fontana and New Year’s Eve. You could not help but be impressed with Lac Fontana at Cheltenham last time as he eased clear of Totalise in heavy ground. I have no idea what happened on his previous start when he was fourth and last behind The Liquidator. The handicapper has shoved him up 12lbs though and that could stop him here.

Swing Bowler ran a really nice race in the Betfair Hurdle after a lengthy absence to be fifth. That looked about the best two-mile handicap run this season and she also has Cheltenham entries. New Year’s Eve is the unknown quantity here as he suffered his only defeat when well backed at Musselburgh, appropriately enough on New Year’s Day! Like Lac Fontana, I cannot explain what happened that day but he has won his subsequent two starts in a hood.

If the headgear has made the difference, he still has chances with just a 7lb penalty. However, the one to be on could be Vibrato Valtat. The grey absolutely laughed at his rivals at Exeter last month and must have had a stone in hand of runner-up Tigris. That horse fell at the weekend so we can only guess at the value of the form but he is fit and fancied.

Vibrato Valtat 13-2 Betfred, Totesport