Tag: Dodging Bullets

Cheltenham blog – Dodging Bullets wins Champion Chase

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After the excitement of the Willie Mullins big four on Tuesday, there was a more relaxed mood at Cheltenham on Wednesday. The highlight of the day was the Queen Mother Champion Chase with three former winners up against the promising Dodging Bullets.

The race was robbed of one key ingredient when Champagne Fever was withdrawn and, with all due to respect to Dodging Bullets, it turned into a bit of an anti-climax. There had always been a big question mark as to whether or not Sprinter Sacre could recapture his best form and he was never travelling with his usual zest.

He was eventually pulled up by Barry Geraghty while Sire de Grugy also ran very flat, running on at one pace into fourth. All credit to Dodging Bullets who has done exactly what Sire de Grugy did a year before, winning the key trials and confirming his status as the best two-miler of the season.

Nicholls had earlier won the Coral Cup when the French import Aux Ptits Soins held off Zabana, Activial and Taglietelle in a driving finish. Don Poli ran out a comfortable winner of the RSA Chase but I don’t imagine that there will be a stampede to take the miserly 6-1 offered about him for next year’s Gold Cup. He looks a bit of a character and was continuously pricking his ears up the home straight. Kings Palace once again failed to fire on the big day and finished a remote sixth for David Pipe.

Nicholls went on to complete a 1430-1 treble when Qualando won the Fred Winter Hurdle from stable companion Bouvreuil. Bookmakers will probably deny it but they ought to be well ahead on the second day with only two successful favourites. Many of their big race offers were on Sire de Grugy and Sprinter Sacre and they will all stay firmly in their satchels.

Coral New Customer Offer

Coral are offering new customers 5-1 about Vautour finishing in the first three in Thursday’s opening race. This is limited to a maximum stake of £10. He looks likely to start at around the 9-4 mark as he bids to add to the Mullins winning tally.

Market Movers

Thursday – Edeymi (Pertemps Final) 8-1 Bet365

Thursday – Un Ace (Festival Plate) 10-1 William Hill

Friday – Quick Jack (County Hurdle) 10-1 Sportingbet

Champion Chase Preview

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If you were only allowed to watch one race at the Cheltenham festival this year, it would surely be the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy have their own fanatical following but both have endured a troubled lead-up to the race.

Up against them are the young pretenders, Dodging Bullets and Champagne Fever. Paul Nicholls must be delighted that Dodging Bullets has dodged the spotlight despite victories in the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House Chase (tipped on both occasions on Betcirca).

If Sprinter Sacre returns to his best form it is difficult to see him being beaten. However, it is impossible to know whether he will ever be as good as he was before that unfortunate incident at Kempton. Nicky Henderson has been cautiously optimistic and he did travel well for a long way at Ascot but there is always the dreaded “bounce factor” to consider.

Sire de Grugy will have his usual entourage of scarf-waving supporters after a comfortable win at Chepstow put him back on course for the race. His jumping went to pieces at Newbury on his previous start and we have now been told about his special shoes to cope with a corn on his foot. Both he and Sprinter Sacre are proven champions but it has been a difficult road to Cheltenham.

Dodging Bullets started his season with a third behind Uxizandre and he may just have needed the run that day. He gave us a 9-1 winner in the Tingle Creek when beating Somersby and followed up at 7-2 by spoiling Sprinter Sacre’s return party. I fancied him for the Arkle last year but he ran too freely and didn’t get home, finishing back in fourth behind Western Warhorse.

The unlucky horse that day was Champagne Fever who had been given a super ride by Ruby Walsh only to be collared by a 33-1 shot. Mullins has so many favourites running next week that Champagne Fever has also missed the headline makers. He won easily recently to restore his confidence over fences and he has won at this meeting twice before. With so much speed in the field, they won’t be hanging about and I can see Champagne Fever battling his way up the hill once again.

It is difficult to oppose Dodging Bullets but I just have reservations about him at this track. He has just curled up here in the past on the run-in so I am siding with Champagne Fever at 6-1 with Paddy Power.

Sire de Grugy even money for Game Spirit

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Sire de Grugy began last season as a 25-1 outsider for the Champion Chase at Cheltenham. The betting for the race was turned upside down when Sprinter Sacre was pulled up in the Desert Orchid Chase and Gary Moore’s chestnut went on to win both races.

The much-awaited clash between the two could take place at the festival in March following Sprinter Sacre’s return at Ascot last month. If Sprinter Sacre was in a different league to his rivals in 2013, Sire de Grugy was a pretty good substitute. He was unbeaten in his last five races, winning the Clarence House Chase and the Celebration Chase without being seriously tested. All ground seems to come alike to the nine-year-old but he has also had his training problems.

A minor injury has kept him off the track since April and there is bound to be some anxiety as he steps out for his prep race in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on Saturday. Moore has issued an up-beat bulletin and expects him to run well on Saturday, although he admits that he has left something to work on. He has 11lbs and upwards in hand of his rivals on official ratings and Betfair have installed him as the even money favourite.

I opposed Sprinter Sacre on his comeback with Dodging Bullets and fitness proved decisive for the Paul Nicholls-trained runner. The Ditcheat trainer has Mr Mole and Vibrato Valtat entered on Saturday but I’d be very surprised if the latter took his place in the field. He is also entered in the Kingmaker Chase at Warwick and I believe that Nicholls would rather keep him in novice company on his way to the Arkle Chase at the festival.

Mr Mole has improved this season and won a handicap at Sandown off a mark of 147, beating subsequent winner Brick Red by two and a quarter lengths. The handicapper now rates Mr Mole at 155, some 17lbs below Sire de Grugy.

Uxizandre would look the most likely threat on his Cheltenham form in November when beating Simply Ned by a length and a quarter. Dodging Bullets was a head away in third but it was a combination of fitness and the Cheltenham hill that found him out that day. Uxizandre blotted his copybook when jumping out to his left on several occasions last time out. Upsilon Bleu is on a hat-trick for Pauline Robson but is only rated 150 while Karinga Dancer looks outclassed.

Sire de Grugy 3.00 Newbury Saturday @Evens Betfair

Horse Racing Preview 17th January

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The attention of the horse racing world will be firmly on Sprinter Sacre as he is expected to make his long-awaited return to action in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot on Saturday.

Trainer Nicky Henderson is understandably nervous about the prospect, just over a year after the horse was pulled up with a fibrillating heart at Kempton. He has been given the best possible veterinary care since and would not be risked unless everyone was happy with his condition. Even so, it will still be remarkable if he is able to bounce back with a win.

Not since my 33-1 bet on Yahoo was denied by Desert Orchid have I been happy to see my horse finish second but I am going to oppose Sprinter Sacre on Saturday. I felt that Dodging Bullets put up a first class display to win the Tingle Creek and is over-priced at 3-1. He is probably not in the same league as the favourite but there must be a big doubt about Sprinter Sacre’s fitness.

Whatever happens with his stable star, Henderson should be in the winner’s enclosure at the start and the finish of the card. I was impressed with Top Notch on his debut and he looks to have an easy task in the first. He will undoubtedly be shortened for the Triumph Hurdle if he does win so I’m going to have a small each-way ante-post investment.

Likewise, Out Sam should underline his festival claims in the last. He only won a four-horse race at Newbury last time but all of his three rivals that day have come out and won since. They include last weekend’s embarrassingly easy Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle winner Tea For Two. It will be a major shock if Out Sam is beaten on Saturday and the Neptune looks likely to be his festival target.

Haydock has to survive an 8am inspection with frost and snow threatening the meeting. The New One is expected to take another step towards the Champion Hurdle in a weak trial so the main betting interest is in the Peter Marsh Chase. Broadway Buffalo easily beat Toby Lerone here in the Tommy Whittle but I was disappointed with him at Wetherby last time. The ground cannot get too heavy for Toby Lerone so he is the each-way selection.

They are racing on the all-weather at Lingfield and Godolphin can land a quick double with Emirates Skycargo and History Book. The latter is trying her hand at sprinting after being edged out over a mile and seven furlongs. She has bags of early speed and is worth a chance at around 9-2. Andrew Balding’s Melvin The Grate can land the featured Ladbrokes Handicap at 2.35 after coming from last to first on his most recent start.

Top Notch 12.40 Ascot @4-7 Bet365

Emirates Skycargo 1.25 Lingfield @4-5 Betfair

History Book 2.0 Lingfield @9-2 Coral

Melvin The Grate 2.35 Lingfield @7-4 Coral

Dodging Bullets 3.00 Ascot @3-1 Coral

Toby Lerone 3.15 Haydock @10-1 Skybet

Out Sam 3.35 Ascot @4-6 Bet365

*Ante-post

*Top Notch – Triumph Hurdle @20-1 William Hill

*Out Sam – Neptune Hurdle @16-1 William Hill

Henderson delays Sprinter Sacre decision

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National Hunt fans will have one eye on the weather for the rest of this week in the hope that Saturday’s card at Ascot can go ahead. The meeting is not currently in danger but Nicky Henderson has warned that he will not risk stable star Sprinter Sacre on heavy ground. A final decision may be left as late as Saturday morning.

The gelding established himself as the best chaser in training in 2013 when romping to victory in the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham festival. He followed up at Aintree and Punchestown and only Arkle and Flyingbolt now stand above him in Timeform’s all-time steeplechase ratings.

There was media speculation that Henderson would be tempted to run him in the King George VI in 2014 but the Lambourn trainer decided to keep him to two miles. He suffered his first defeat over fences in unfortunate circumstances when pulled up at Kempton just over a year ago with a fibrillating heart. There were fears that we would not see him back on a racecourse but he has made a steady recovering under the finest veterinary care and attention.

Had it not been for his health problems, Sprinter Sacre would be long odds-on for Saturday’s Clarence House Chase. He is rated more than 20lbs higher than any of his five rivals but there are obviously going to be fitness concerns. Barry Geraghty seems confident that he is back to his best after riding him over five fences at Newbury after Christmas. Even so, he is not likely to push his ears off if he starts to labour in the closing stages.

With doubts still surrounding the participation of Sprinter Sacre, Dodging Bullets has been cut to a best price 7-4. He did this column a favour when landing the Grade 1 Tingle Creek Chase at rewarding odds and represents Paul Nicholls who has been successful four times in this race.

I fancied Dodging Bullets in last season’s Arkle but he had to settle for fourth place behind shock winner Western Warhorse. He shaped well when finishing second to Uxizandre at Cheltenham in November and that clearly sharpened him up for Sandown. He should confirm supremacy over Somersby who was two and a half lengths away in third and reaching the autumn of his career at ten years of age.

Willie Mullins is represented by Twinlight who beat Hidden Cyclone in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Chase last time. He is not the safest of jumpers and tends to jump out to his right. He made a couple of blunders at Kempton on his only previous trip. The race will lose a lot of its interest if Henderson pulls out Sprinter Sacre but Dodging Bullets can continue his progression towards the Champion Chase in March.

Dodging Bullets @7-4 Ladbrokes

Tingle Creek Chase Preview

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Saturday’s Tingle Creek Chase looks wide open in the absence of Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre. Eighteen horses were entered on Monday so the race looks more like a big handicap than a two-mile championship race.

Many Clouds (tipped at 9-1) gave us a nice win last week in the Hennessy for one of the smaller stables in Oliver Sherwood and this week it could be the turn of Trainer Tom George to steal the headlines. He is set to run the rapidly improving God’s Own who has still not convinced everyone that he is a Grade 1 chaser despite wins at Punchestown and Exeter.

Balder Succes beat him fair and square at Kempton in February but could not repeat the performance in Ireland. God’s Own returned at 25-1 that day and was still a very generous 8-1 when the two met again at Exeter last month. The son of Oscar ran out a convincing five-length winner, both horses having made bad mistakes in the home straight.

His jumping is probably my main concern as they are certain to go very quick early on with such a big field. Balder Succes can go quite low at his fences and he is not certain to enjoy the Railway fences either. Never the less, I feel that God’s Own is a better bet at 9-2 than Alan King’s horse at 11-4.

Several of these have alternative engagements over the weekend including Twinlight, one of three entered by Willie Mullins. I don’t think that I could support him after the way he jumped at Kempton last year. Stable companion Ballycasey surely wants a longer trip and Felix Yonger looks held on Punchestown form, although he would probably be the best of the trio.

Oscar Whisky ran a great race to finish a close fourth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup with 11st 12lb on his back. However, he is a two and a half mile horse who has run his best races at Cheltenham and Aintree over the years. He put up a really laboured performance here last spring, admittedly in heavy ground, but I am not convinced that this race will suit him.

Paul Nicholls does not have a Kauto Star or Master Minded to call upon this year as he seeks a ninth win in the race. You have to treat Hinterland with caution after he was pulled up with a broken blood vessel last time so his best chance has to be Dodging Bullets.

He is starting to become a little frustrating as he didn’t really fire at Cheltenham last year and looked to be travelling well until flattening out on the run-in on his comeback behind Uxizandre. He could have failed through fitness there or maybe he does not really like the Cheltenham hill despite having won there in the past. He jumped perfectly soundly that day and could be worth an each-way bet on Saturday.

God’s Own @9-2 William Hill

Dodging Bullets @10-1 Bet365

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4