Tag: Kempton

Horse Racing Preview January 10th

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A nice double on the all-weather at Lingfield on Friday (Don’t Be and Sabre Rock, both tipped at 9-4) paid over 10-1 to set us up nicely for the weekend.

Channel 4 cameras are at Kempton and Warwick for some good quality National Hunt racing, although winners may be hard to find. Nicky Henderson made fools of ante-post punters by pulling Dawalan out of the Lanzarote Hurdle with Barry Geraghty now switching to Hammersly Lake. I have not seen any explanation in the media but I’ve gone back to the race for a second look and believe Saffron Wells could give us a run for our money.

He has got in here on a light weight after running a cracker at Newbury when trying to concede almost a stone to Polamco. That horse is an improving stayer and the pair were separated by the Paul Nicholls-trained Morito Du Berlais, a good yard stick in staying handicaps this season. Saffron Wells like to get his toe in and will have perfect conditions on Saturday.

I had considered supporting Heath Hunter but I see that Tom Scudamore has elected to ride Dell’ Arca instead. Heath Hunter showed up well for a long way at Haydock last time but the application of first time blinkers suggests that David Pipe thinks he has his own ideas about the game.

Kilcooley has been hammered by the handicapper for his 23-length win at Haydock and I have more regard for Tea For Two, the mount of Lizzie Kelly. The gelding won with plenty in hand at Towcester and does not look harshly treated for his handicap debut.

Shotgun Paddy was our midweek selection for the Warwick Classic Chase as he bids to repeat last year’s victory. He has to carry top weight of 11st 12lb so it is difficult to be confident in such a testing race.

This is a big year for Godolphin after a poor season in 2014. Charlie Appleby already has a number of his string in action on the all-weather and it could be worth noting his runners at Lingfield on Saturday. Magical Effect looks a ready-made winner in the 12.20 after finishing second at Wolverhampton in October.

The son of New Approach can get off the mark here while Turning Times should make it a double in the handicap at 3.10. The daughter of Pivotal is a bit of a rarity in that she is a roan racing in the Godolphin blue. She won her maiden here in August after a couple of decent efforts at Kempton.

Saffron Wells 2.40 Kempton @12-1 Paddy Power

Shotgun Paddy 3.35 Warwick @9-1

Each-way 1/4 odds, 1,2,3

Magical Effect 12.10 Lingfield

Turning Times 3.10 Lingfield @15-8 Paddy Power

Lanzarote Hurdle Ante-Post Preview

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After a very quiet week, National Hunt action picks up again this weekend with good quality cards at Kempton and Warwick. The feature race on Saturday’s Kempton card is the William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle over two miles and five furlongs.

Trainer Nicky Henderson has three entries with Aintree winner Dawalan along with Hammersly Lake and Royal Irish Hussar. Barry Geraghty has already been pencilled in for the ride on Dawalan which suggests he is the stable’s first choice.

The grey was considered a possible for the Triumph Hurdle last season but Henderson diverted him to the Fred Winter Hurdle when it was clear that he was not going to be good enough. He was never in with a chance in that hotly-contested handicap and time has shown that he is really more of a stayer. Stable companion Sign Of A Victory walked all over him at Ascot but he improved when stepped up to two and a half miles at Haydock behind On Tour.

He looked to be going nowhere with two to jump but finished best of all. He was made favourite for Aintree next time and rallied from the last to beat Bear’s Affair by three-quarters of a length. He is up 9lbs here but will be staying on when most of these have cried enough. He looks a good each-way bet at 9-1 in the ante-post lists.

Hammersly Lake was never really travelling like a winner last time but stayed on from the last behind Silsol. He looks more of a chaser in the making whereas Royal Irish Hussar has not recaptured his early juvenile form.

The bookmakers’ favourite is Tea For Two who won easily at Towcester last month. He is a course and distance winner and Lizzie Killy takes a useful 7lbs off his back. Hello George was sixth in the Ladbroke over two miles at Ascot and goes up in trip for Philip Hobbs while Warrantor steps out of novice company for Warren Greatrex. He was impressive at Market Rasen, as was runaway Haydock winner Kilcooley.

He chased home last week’s Tolworth Hurdle winner L’Ami Serge before winning by 23 lengths in heavy ground last time. Dawalan had him well behind at Ascot and is 8lbs better off here so I am sticking with the Henderson horse.

Dawalan @9-1 William Hill

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Dynaste the value bet in King George VI Chase

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A top quality field of ten are set to face the starter for the Grade 1 King George VI at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Silviniaco Conti heads the market for Paul Nicholls as he bids to follow up last year’s victory in the Christmas feature event. He came under pressure a long way out that day but the front-running Cue Card finally began to run out of steam in the home straight and Silviniaco Conti powered to a three and a half-length victory.

That victory entitled the gelding to go close in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and he ran a great race to finish fourth, only surrendering the lead on the uphill climb to the finish. He then beat Dynaste at Aintree on ground possibly quicker than he prefers.

He faded tamely first time out this season at Wetherby but was a different proposition in Haydock’s Betfair Chase when gaining his revenge on Menorah by two lengths. He had old rivals Dynaste and Cue Card behind in third and fourth and the pair re-oppose on Boxing Day.

Cue Card did not jump with his usual fluency that day and it would be no surprise to see him bowling along in front at Kempton. Despite being a previous winner of the Betfair Chase, there remains a suspicion that he is not a true three-miler and could be vulnerable in the closing stages.

Dynaste has looked top class when winning at Aintree last year and again at the Cheltenham Festival in March. He ran inexplicably badly in this race a year ago after a similar preparation and there seems no reason why he should not be involved in the finish. He was brilliant when winning over course and distance as a novice and travels well in his races. This could finally be his big day and Tom Scudamore will look to creep into contention as they turn for home.

Al Ferof put up an impressive performance to win the Amlin Chase at Ascot last month. He finished a weary third here last year and certainly did not get home over three miles in heavy ground at Haydock last season. Connections will be hoping that conditions do not deteriorate in order to give him a chance of seeing out the trip.

Champagne Fever was narrowly beaten by Western Warhorse at Cheltenham in March and tackles three miles for the first time here. He won comfortably over two and a half miles in November but this will be the first time he has taken on such a strong field of experienced chasers.

Menorah has run two excellent races for Philip Hobbs but may struggle against race-fit rivals here while Johns Spirit is unproven over three miles.

Dynaste @8-1 William Hill

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3

Kempton Thursday Preview

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The National Hunt racing is modest on Thursday ahead of the big weekend meetings at Sandown but the all-weather flat action continues at Kempton.

Jockey Luke Morris recently chalked up a career best tally for the year when surpassing last year’s tally of 168 winners. He could not be described as a stylish jockey by any stretch of the imagination but he gets the job done. He must also be a nightmare for the handicapper to read while trying to assess his winners, particularly those late developing three-year-olds of Sir Mark Prescott.

Morris should be on the score sheet again on Thursday on hat-trick seeking Vaguely Spanish in the 6.45 race. The son of Oratorio is trained by Tony Carroll and showed previous little until finishing an unlucky fourth at Brighton in October. He got off the mark at Windsor later the same month when bursting through late off a modest handicap rating of 49.

The handicapper put him up only 3lbs and Luke Morris did the steering on him when following up at Wolverhampton last month. He looked in a tricky position turning for home but responded gamely when pulled out wide and beat Gracefully by half a length. He is only up a further 3lbs here and the opposition looks extremely weak.

In the earlier maiden races I like the look of Richard Fahey’s Star Of The Stage at 5.45. The son of Invincible Spirit has missed the break on both of his starts so far, running on strongly at the finish to take third here last time out.

He races in the colours of Cheveley Park Stud so will be expected to pay his keep. The danger could be Stamp Of Authority who was still going strongly in the lead at the furlong pole over seven here last time out. He faded close home to finish only fifth but this drop in trip should see him go close.

You don’t often see runners in maiden races here that have finished second at Ascot first time but that is the case with Ajmal Ihsaas in the 6.15. Marco Botti is stepping the filly up two furlongs here but she could be a little better than your average maiden winner. Rock Kristal appeared to resent racing in a hood last time for John Gosden and could pose the main threat without the headgear.

Star Of The Stage 5.45 @2-1 Betfair

Ajmal Ihsaas 6.15 @4-5 Betfair

Vaguely Spanish 6.45 @11-8 Paddy Power

Kempton Thursday Preview

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Kempton stages an interesting all-weather card on Thursday and I have been burning the midnight oil to try and find a couple of winners.

The second race on the card is a nursery and looks like a straight match between Chetan and Rialto Magic. Chetan battled well last time out after coming under pressure a long way from home but he has been on the go a long time. I just prefer the claims of Jamie Osborne’s Rialto Magic who will be having only her fourth race.

The daughter of Monsieur Bond ran particularly well here last time when third in the hands of Racheal Kneller and it is interesting that Adam Kirby takes over here.

There are only five runners in the seven furlong nursery which follows but a case can be made for four of them. Top weight Lyfka would probably be on a four-timer but for meeting bad interference at Wolverhampton but Marmalad is weighted to finish in front of him here. I’m going to side with Newbury runner-up Vegas Rebel who receives 10lbs from Lyfka and is more attractively priced.

My first instinct was to go for Solidarity in the 5.30 race after Desert Snow bolted up at Kempton on Wednesday. That horse had Solidarity behind him last time in the same colours of Godolphin. A 6lbs penalty does not look harsh for a comfortable win at Wolverhampton but he may be pushed to beat Double Discount on these terms. That horse stuck on the better of the two the last time they met and they are on exactly the same terms. Double Discount has won easily since and has to be the value bet, if you will forgive the pun!

Finally, I am going for Knight Owl in the 6.40 after an eye-catching run from James Fanshawe’s horse last time out. He finished fast from well behind to take fourth place and that looks the ideal prep for Thursday’s race. George Baker takes over in the saddle from Shane Kelly and few ride this course better. I was reluctant to pass over Andrew Balding’s Geordan Murphy who has won his last two starts at Windsor and he is feared most.

Rialto Magic 4.40 @3-1 Bet365

Vegas Rebel 5.10 @11-4 Skybet

Double Discount 5.40 @9-2 Coral

Knight Owl 6.40 @5-1 Ladbrokes

Kempton Wednesday Preview

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All-weather racing fans are in for some saturation coverage on Wednesday with sixteen races across Lingfield and Kempton.

The highlight of the day is the Listed mile race at 6.25 which has attracted a very strong field of 12. The probable favourite is Roger Charlton’s Captain Cat who comes out on top on official ratings after a tremendous season.

He has shown his versatility by winning on the all-weather and on the turf, most notably claiming a Group 3 prize at Haydock in September. He then stepped up to Group 2 company at Newmarket where he was beaten by an in-form Custom Cut. He ended his turf campaign with a respectable fourth in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes in desperate ground.

William Haggas runs two here in Graphic and Her Majesty The Queen’s Prince’s Trust. I was a great fan of Graphic last season as he worked his way up the handicap but he has found it tougher in a higher class. He is still a rattling good miler but it is difficult to oppose Prince’s Trust after his second easy victory in three races.

The four-year-old son of Invincible Spirit won with a ton in hand at Yarmouth first time out and was backed to win a valuable race at Ascot despite a 12lbs rise in the weights. He proved very disappointing, weakening right out of contention behind Intransigent. He showed that form to be all wrong last time when beating that rival, again appearing to have plenty in hand. Intransigent boosted the form with a win at Lingfield last Saturday but Prince’s Trust needs to improve again to win this.

Tenor is another leading contender here having gone up almost 40lbs in the handicap this year. He won a Listed race at Sandown in September and ran a fine race to finish fifth in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket. Providing that the long season has not taken its toll, he must have each-way claims.

I also like the look of Andrew Balding’s Duretto in the earlier maiden race at 5.25. He ran an eye-catching race on his debut when second to Firmament at Newbury. He was blocked in his run and had to switch to the outside of the winner before finishing strongly. That looked a far better race than he faces tomorrow and he can take this on the way to better things.

Duretto 5.25 Kempton @10-11 Betfair

Prince’s Trust 6.25 Kempton @5-1 William Hill