Tag: Silviniaco Conti

Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview

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A large field is set to go to post for the Cheltenham Gold Cup on Friday, the feature event of the festival. Rank outsider River Choice is a possible absentee but that would still leave 17 to face the starter.

Silviniaco Conti has been favourite for most of the season and it is surprising that bookmakers are offering as high as 5-1 about the gelding. It is true that he has been beaten in this race twice before, falling in 2013 and fading in the final 150 yards to finish fourth last year. Trainer Paul Nicholls is confident that he has him in perfect condition and a Wednesday treble for the stable has boosted confidence still further.

We tipped Djakadam at 16-1 in our ante-post preview and it looks as though he could start at around half that price. The bare form of his Thyestes Chase victory is not good enough to win this but he has bags of potential and hails from the in-form Mullins stable.

Lord Windermere and Holywell are our next best as they both tend to peak in the spring. Lord Windermere has won the RSA Chase and Gold Cup on his last two visits and he has done enough this year to suggest he can finish in the money at least. Davy Russell rides this course superbly and reminded everyone of that with a double on Wednesday.

I am not convinced that Many Clouds and Road To Riches will enjoy the conditions. There were some fast times on Thursday, notably from Uxizandre in the Ryanair Chase, and both horses have shown their best form with plenty of give in the ground. I am not a fan of novices running in the Gold Cup, although Coneygree does jump like an old pro. Good luck to the Mark Bradstock team with their ambitious tilt at the top prize in steeplechasing. Carlingford Lough will come in for support as he is the last ride in the race for Tony McCoy. He jumped poorly here last season and I have my reservations about him.

There is usually a good run from an old stager in the Gold Cup and there are several likely suspects this year. Hardly anyone has mentioned 2013 winner Bobs Worth so there is absolutely no pressure on Barry Geraghty’s mount while On His Own has managed to repeat last year’s tremendous run but could be lit up on the day. And of course there is always The Giant Bolster! Second, fourth and third in previous years, could he have another trick up his sleeve?

Verdict

  1. Silviniano Conti 5-1 (888Sport)
  2. Djakadam 15-2 (William Hill)
  3. Holywell (11-1 William Hill)
  4. Lord Windermere (18-1 Paddy Power)

Cheltenham Gold Cup Ante-Post Preview

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With most bookmakers offering non-runner – no bet on the feature races at Cheltenham, now is a good time to seek out some early value. Bet365 are offering money back on all non-runners at the meeting and the other firms will gradually follow suit as the meeting approaches.

The market for the Cheltenham Gold Cup has been dominated by Silviniaco Conti since he recorded his second King George VI Chase victory in December. Paul Nicholls issued an up-beat report on the gelding this week, suggesting that he is in much better shape than he was last year when fading into fourth place on the run-in. He is obviously the one to beat but does not represent any great value at around 7-2.

Last year’s Gold Cup changed dramatically after the last fence with Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti swamped by three horses arriving late on the opposite side of the track. Leading the charge was Lord Windermere who is back to defend his crown for Jim Culloty. Having won the RSA Chase the previous season, he seems to be one of those horses that peaks at exactly the right time. I felt that he ran a fine trial when third behind Carlingford Lough in the Irish Hennessy and is worth a bet at 14-1 with Ladbrokes. He is as short as 10-1 elsewhere so the 14-1 may not last much longer.

I respect the chance of Many Clouds having supported him in the Hennessy at Newbury at the start of the season. Oliver Sherwood sent out his 1,000th winner not long ago so he knows how to prepare them for the festival. I did not get on him at longer odds so will not be rushing to back him at 8-1. Road To Riches struck me as a doubtful stayer earlier in the season and I have more regard for Djakadam.

There won’t be many Mullins horses on offer at 16-1 at the festival and he could not have won any easier in the fog at Gowran Park in January. With Ruby Walsh aboard, he can bide his time and see how the race unfolds. No decision has yet been made about Foxrock but he has run three terrific races in succession and may not get his favoured soft ground.

I don’t like backing novices in the Gold Cup so cannot see Coneygree featuring while Holywell is worthy of respect. He has won here at the last two festival meetings and Jonjo O’Neill would not be running him unless he felt that he was back to his best.

Tips

Lord Windermere @14-1 Ladbrokes

Djakadam @16-1 Ladbrokes

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3 (Non-runner – no bet)

Dynaste the value bet in King George VI Chase

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A top quality field of ten are set to face the starter for the Grade 1 King George VI at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Silviniaco Conti heads the market for Paul Nicholls as he bids to follow up last year’s victory in the Christmas feature event. He came under pressure a long way out that day but the front-running Cue Card finally began to run out of steam in the home straight and Silviniaco Conti powered to a three and a half-length victory.

That victory entitled the gelding to go close in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and he ran a great race to finish fourth, only surrendering the lead on the uphill climb to the finish. He then beat Dynaste at Aintree on ground possibly quicker than he prefers.

He faded tamely first time out this season at Wetherby but was a different proposition in Haydock’s Betfair Chase when gaining his revenge on Menorah by two lengths. He had old rivals Dynaste and Cue Card behind in third and fourth and the pair re-oppose on Boxing Day.

Cue Card did not jump with his usual fluency that day and it would be no surprise to see him bowling along in front at Kempton. Despite being a previous winner of the Betfair Chase, there remains a suspicion that he is not a true three-miler and could be vulnerable in the closing stages.

Dynaste has looked top class when winning at Aintree last year and again at the Cheltenham Festival in March. He ran inexplicably badly in this race a year ago after a similar preparation and there seems no reason why he should not be involved in the finish. He was brilliant when winning over course and distance as a novice and travels well in his races. This could finally be his big day and Tom Scudamore will look to creep into contention as they turn for home.

Al Ferof put up an impressive performance to win the Amlin Chase at Ascot last month. He finished a weary third here last year and certainly did not get home over three miles in heavy ground at Haydock last season. Connections will be hoping that conditions do not deteriorate in order to give him a chance of seeing out the trip.

Champagne Fever was narrowly beaten by Western Warhorse at Cheltenham in March and tackles three miles for the first time here. He won comfortably over two and a half miles in November but this will be the first time he has taken on such a strong field of experienced chasers.

Menorah has run two excellent races for Philip Hobbs but may struggle against race-fit rivals here while Johns Spirit is unproven over three miles.

Dynaste @8-1 William Hill

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3

Haydock Saturday Preview

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The Betfair Chase at Haydock is the highlight of Saturday’s National Hunt action. Last year it was won by Cue Card who defeated Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti. All three are back again this year via very different routes.

Cue Card looked like winning the King George before being outstayed by Silviniaco Conti. Dynaste ran poorly but returned to win the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham festival. The picture is further confused by the recent Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby in which Menorah beat Taquin Du Seuil with Silviniaco Conti fading into fifth place. I am just going to side with David Pipe’s Dynaste who clearly wasn’t right at Kempton last year and could yet make a Gold Cup horse.

The New One should not have much difficulty in winning the 1.50 and taking another step towards the Champion Hurdle. I was impressed with Aurore D’Estruval at Wetherby and she could run well for John Quinn but it will be a major shock if anything can trouble the favourite.

The Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle has attracted a really strong field headed by Volnay De Thaix. Nicky Henderson’s five-year-old carries 12 stone including a 5lbs penalty for his recent win at Huntingdon. He absolutely bolted up that day and is going to be difficult to beat.

Katkeau also carries a penalty for beating Big Easy at Cheltenham. The runner-up looked like providing yet another winner for the in-form Philip Hobbs stable and should run another big race here. I also have a sneaking fancy for the Irish horse Dara Tango who recently won on the flat at Catterick. He was awarded the race after being hampered close home by Jolie Blonde and that should have put him spot on for his return to hurdling.

The 1.15 is an equally competitive race with Morito Du Berlais going for a hat-trick for Paul Nicholls. He was always travelling comfortably behind the leaders that day and did well to quicken up after a sticky jump at the final flight.

The big danger here is the Evan Williams-trained On Tour. It isn’t often you see the jockey taking a pull at the last in a two and a half mile handicap hurdle but Paul Moloney had to fight to hold on to On Tour at Stratford. He needed to shake him up when challenged on his outside by Go West Young Man. The handicapper has put him up 9lbs but that may not be enough to stop him.

On Tour 1.15 @5-1 Coral

Volnay De Thaix 2.25 @9-2 Stan James

Dara Tango 2.25 @14-1 Bet Victor (each-way)

Dynaste 3.00 @9-2 Paddy Power

Cheltenham Gold Cup Day Preview

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Our Cheltenham ante-post bets have done us proud this week with a 64 points level stake profit on Wednesday’s wagers. It looked for a long way as if Cause Of Causes (tipped at 12-1) was going to give us another winner on Thursday but he pecked at the last and couldn’t make up the lost ground.

A shame to see Big Buck’s go out with a bit of a whimper after such a tremendous career. The Nicholls stable really aren’t enjoying the best of luck this week but perhaps Calipto and Silviniaco Conti will change that on Friday.

Our Triumph Hurdle hopes were dashed earlier in the week when Le Rocher was pulled out. Activial was also taken out, although we backed him on NR – no bet terms so get our stakes refunded. The same applies to Rocky Creek in the Gold Cup.

Silviniaco Conti has to be our leading hope tomorrow having taken 9-1 at the start of the season. He must have been first or second last year had he stood up at the last. Ruby Walsh was reluctant to comment last year but Nicholls was “gutted”. I’m a little concerned that the going may be on the fast side because that will suit Bobs Worth perfectly but they have started watering.

We also snapped up 40-1 about Triolo D’Alene before McCoy was booked. I must admit that I have always been a bit of a jinx for the champion jockey so this is a good opportunity for him to end the sequence. I have to admit that I am slightly sceptical about headlines such as “plunge horse”. He was 40-1 NR – no bet so that was the time for anyone to back him. Why wait for Henderson to declare him a definite runner and then be happy to take 16-1?

Last Instalment was briefly 14-1 after winning the Irish Hennessy and should run a big race but the ground is also a concern for him. Kings Palace was about the shortest ante-post bet we had on the festival and I still fancy him strongly, particularly as Pipe has now trained three festival winners. Cheltenian has a chance in the County Hurdle so plenty of opportunities to top up our winnings.

Friday

Ante-Post

Triumph Hurdle – Le Rocher 14-1, Activial 10-1

County Hurdle – Dell’ Arca 16-1, Cheltenian 14-1

Albert Bartlett – Kings Palace 5-1

Gold Cup – Last Instalment 14-1, Silviniaco Conti 9-1, Dynaste 25-1, Triolo D’Alene 40-1, Rocky Creek 33-1

King George VI Chase Preview

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We finished in profit from Ascot last weekend thanks to Irving (11-4), Houblon Des Obeaux (4-1) and Flaxen Flare (16-1 each-way). Let’s hope that we can keep up the good work over Christmas when we all need a bit of a cash boost.

The King George has never been a particular favourite of mine because it is often won by the same horse at prohibitive odds. Kauto Star (5 times) and Desert Orchid (4 times) have been great in terms of popular racing winners but the race is generally not that competitive.

That is certainly not the case this year with a virtual re-run of the Betfair Chase at Haydock and connections of the first three home all being quite bullish about their prospects. It was Cue Card that came out on top at the Lancashire track, comfortably holding off Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti who were both making their seasonal debuts.

The second and third were the two horses that I earmarked at the start of the season for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and they certainly didn’t do their chances any harm at Haydock. Silviniaco Conti surprised by how well he travelled. In fact, he may have travelled a little too well and just ran out of puff in the closing stages.

Dynaste bowled along nicely and jumped like an old hand rather than a second season chaser. David Pipe must have been delighted by that and he appeared to love Kempton last season when bolting up in the Feltham. I just feel that Dynaste is more likely to be suited by this track than Silviniaco Conti, although I can see the Nicholls horse running a big race.

Cue Card improved over a stone from his first run to his second and Colin Tizzard has since revealed that his stable has been trying to shake off a virus all season. He is at pains to stage categorically that Cue Card is not affected and is in great shape for Boxing Day.

Al Ferof has always been regarded as a likely candidate for this race and he did nothing wrong when winning at Ascot. Admittedly he only had a single rival but that horse came out and ran well in a handicap at Cheltenham so it may have been a better run than it first appeared. It’s hard to see any of the others getting involved but it is set up for a cracking race between the trio from Haydock.

Dynaste at 100-30 Bet365, Coral