Can the “Doggies” Break their 55 Year AFL Grand Final Drought?

2016 AFL Grand Final – Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs

As sporting events go, Aussie Rules is as tough as they come. It is certainly no sport for weaklings or sensitive souls. So here we are once again at AFL Grand Final time, that “One day in September”, which ironically falls on October 1 this year. The venue is the Melbourne Cricket Ground, one of the most iconic of all sporting venues.

You could be forgiven for thinking that this will be just like any other AFL final…except it isn’t! For a start, the Western Bulldogs are taking part. So what’s so special about that? The record books show they haven’t participated in an AFL Grand Final since 1961, and that has been far too long between drinks for “Doggies” fans; they’re desperate to end the drought.

No Certainty for Sydney

The Swans have been finalists on a regular basis and they really seem to perform well in the big pressure games. So what can we expect? Firstly, the Sydney Swans have plenty of Grand Final experience. On the flip side they have also been known to blow up on the big occasions too. This season’s stats seem to suggest that this game could be close.

Sydney’s win over Geelong in last week’s preliminary final is an instructive game to take into consideration when looking for a winner in this match. Sure, Sydney won, but they failed in a couple of key areas. One being the inside 50’s. Geelong came out on top in that one 72-40.

Preferred Defence

What this does however is give the “Dogs” an insight into how Sydney are looking to defend. The big question is can they exploit that? The Swans have been one of the top teams this season when it comes to clearances. In fact, only the Greater Western Sydney Giants have bettered them. The Bulldogs have also performed well in this area. So what we have in this final is a battle in the midfield.

Who Will Win the Midfield?

The midfield is going to be the key. The experts, pundits and ex-players all seem to agree. Whoever wins the midfield on Saturday will win the game. Sydney has a formidable line up. Kennedy, Jack, Parker and Hannebery are as tough as they come. However the Dogs won the clearance battle last time out. Many believe they will do it again.

All this makes for one thing. An absolutely enthralling AFL Grand Final. So where is your money going, and where will the value be? Sun Bets have the Swans as clear favourites at 4/7. Do they deserve to be so short?

Time to Place a Wager

With the Dogs at 11/8 and showing some good game stats this season then many people will fancy those odds!

If these potential wagers don’t get you excited, then try these. You could get 6/1 with Sun Bets on Western Bulldogs overturning a half-time deficit and going on to win the game. If you fancy the Swans to win and be ahead at half time, then you may want to take a punt on the 4/5 being offered. So come on, are you a man or a mouse?

Do you go for the safer option and take odds on? Experience shows that favourites don’t always win these games. All it takes is for one player to underperform. This means that the underdog stands a great chance as long as they are not outclassed.

One thing is sure, the Western Bulldogs may be the underdogs in this clash, but they are certainly not outclassed. They have the personnel to win this match and upset the odds, and the stats back that up.

 

 

AFL Round 7 Results

After last weeks round of shock upsets, the AFL settled down to a degree and pretty much ran the course predicted.  Upsets (while there were still a few) were replaced with huge scores, low scores and just two close contests (as exciting as they were).  Fremantle kept winning and at the other end of the table the Brisbane Lions finally hauled themselves off the bottom.

Here’s a quick run down of all the moments that matter in Round 7:

Essendon (12-10-82) v North Melbourne (13-15-93)

The North Melbourne Kangaroos did enough to get by a Dons side that has far too many wADA and drug scandal distractions to be expected to put together some decent footy.  But put together okay footy they did, matching the Kangaroos for much of the close Etihad Stadium that acted as a replay of last years elimination final.

The difference was Jack Ziebell who collected 29 disposals (15 of them contested), had 11 disposals and kicked 2 goals (including one from outside the 50) to help seal the 11 point win.  Goals also came from Petrie (2), Thomas (2), Waite (2) but the Roos will be keen to work on their kicking during the week as accuracy in front of goal was a little concerning.

The win means North Melbourne get to 4-3 for the season and the Bombers the opposite at 3-4.

Adelaide Crows (18-11-119) v St Kilda (10-13-73)

A brutal encounter at the Adelaide Oval may have robbed the league of two of its stars for a significant amount of time.  Both Nick Riewoldt and Matthew Jaensch appear to suffer serious injuries in contrasting nasty and innocuous challenges.

Injuries aside the match was relatively one-sided once the Crows were able to overcome a quick three goal start form the Saints.  Eddie Betts was the star of the match, kicking five goals for the third straight week (he had six in all here) and seeing his protege Charlie Cameron also kick three.

Josh Bruce was excellent in a losing side.  He again led the forward line with five goals and 12 marks.  His man bun was everywhere and kicking goals from some obscene angles.

Adelaide’s win takes them to second on the ladder, ahead of a tricky period which starts with GWS in Sydney then Fremantle at home before facing an unpredictable Carlton side who may have some players back by then.

Hawthorne (24-11-155) v Melbourne (7-8-50)

The Hawks came out as everyone expected and buried the Demons (of last week) with a huge win at the MCG.  Gearing up for next weeks Grand Final rematch against the Swans, the Hawks won by a mammoth 105 points and in the process gave Melbourne coach Paul Roo’s his biggest coaching defeat.

As the scoreline suggested the match was largely uncompetitive.  Hawthorne led at every quarter and kicked at least four majors in each of the four terms.  Jarryd Roughead was the most prolific of the Hawk’s front line with four goals, while Luke Breust (3) and Cyril Rioli (3) also got amongst the fun as did ten other goal kickers.

The reigning premiers were never going to be rolled over two weeks in a row, but nevertheless the 40,000 plus crowd will be disappointed by the Demons showing.  Schoolboy errors in the face of unrelenting pressure are excusable but unforced errors such as the failure of Cameron Pedersen to get the distance from 35m out, and his teammates failing to contest the resultant scramble.

Carlton (9-3-57) v GWS Giants (19-21-135)

The Greater Western Sydney Giants backed up their win over reigning premiers Hawthorne with another quality performance to comprehensively beat Carlton in Saturday’s twilight fixture at the Etihad Stadium.

The 78 point thrashing heaps more misery on a Blues team that could see coach Mick Malthouse fired by the end of the week.  The Giants registered their highest ever score thanks to five majors from the in form Jeremy Cameron.  But the real winning of the game was the Giants getting the better of a lopsided 78-32 inside the 50 count.

The result proves two things.  One, the Giants are actually shaping as a pretty decent side.  And two, Carlton are not.  Expect a few more renditions of the club song from the Giants as they continue to build on  their 2014 season, and expect plenty of turmoil for the Blues.

Sydney Swans (18-12-120) v Geelong Cats (11-11-77)

Lance Franklin was again wasteful in front of goal but still managed four goals to make amends for his donut last week.  His effort wasn’t the major talking point of the Swans 43 point win over Geelong however,   instead the arrival of Luke Parker to the upper echelon of Aussies Rules players took that honour.

Parker was the best midfielder on display and the catalyst of a dominant second half that saw the Swans kick10 goals to two and streak away.  Geelong actually led at halftime before being blown away by the Swans second half show.

Jarrad McVeigh celebrated his 250th game by marshalling the Swans defence in his usual professional manner.  He also added his second goal of the season and was carried off by his teammates in recognition of his longevity, loyalty and ongoing Swans contribution.

The Swans move up to third and will be hoping they can take Saturday’s form into next weeks epic encounter against the Hawks.

West Coast Eagles (21-9-135) v Gold Coast Suns (6-7-43)

The Eagles continued their dream run in 2015 with a relentless win over the Gold Coast Suns at a wet and miserable Domain Stadium.  The 92 point win means the Eagles early season march continues all the way to second on the competition ladder, and inflicted a damp and dreary mood on the Suns to match the conditions.

26,000 brave fans saw a number of records and almost records.  The Eagles had 12 goals in the third quarter which set a new club record, while the Suns narrowly avoided posting their lowest ever score.  That was largely due to four goals in the final term a much better effort than the solitary minor they managed in the second quarter.

Standouts were everywhere for the Eagels.  Matt Priddis gathered 39 disposals and kicked two goals; Elliot Yeo kicked 4 goals from 29 touches; Shannon Hurn was also involved, he had 25 touches and 12 marks; Chris Masten had 43 disposals; and Josh Kennedy kicked four goals.

Western Bulldogs (14-4-88) v Fremantle (15-11-101)

Fremantle’s unbeaten start to the season continued, but Sunday’s result was perhaps the closest of them all as they narrowly beat a dogged Western Bulldogs unit.  The win seventh straight may come with a hefty price tag mind you, with Brownlow Medal contender Nat Fyfe facing a possible suspension for tripping (slightly souring his 30 disposals performance).

The Dogs outlined exactly what it takes to defeat the Dockers without actually doing so.  They were accurate, disciplined and above all plucky as they fought back from 34 points adrift only to see late goals to Michael Walters and Matthew Pavlich break their hearts.

Tory Dickson was on target seven times for the Bulldogs, and captain Bob Murphy was at his snappy best, but the side were left to lament a ground ball that stifled a scoring chance to Mitch Wallis.

The Bulldogs drop to 8th bit should be able to regain a placing or two if they beat Melbourne next week like they should.

Richmond (16-9-105) v Collingwood (15-10-100)

It took 7 rounds to find an absolute classic and it might not be matched for the rest of the season.  The mid table clash between the Tigers and the Magpies served up a thrilling contest in one of the best games in recent memory with ebbs and flows, lead changes (ten to be exact) and only five points separating the sides at the final whistle.

The Tigers were able to grind out the narrow win despite an inside 50 deficit of 7.  They relied on big plays in the closing moments from Trent Cotchin and Brett Deledio.  Cotchin was particularly influential in the final quarter, racking up 9 disposals, including 3 inside fifties, 6 contested possessions and 3 score involvements.  Deledio had 30 possessions (10 contested) and 13 marks for the game.

The win means the Tigers snap a worrying three game losing streak and are now just one win outside the top 8.

Travis Cloke and Dane Swan were the best from the beaten side.  Swan worked tirelessly all day, and while his stats didn’t quite match the Tigers’ best, he didn’t deserve to be on a losing side.

Brisbane Lions (15-12-102) v Port Adelaide (8-17-65)

The Brisbane Lions have gone back to back and dragged themselves off the bottom of the ladder with a win over an unenthused Power side at the Gabba on Sunday.

The scalp is an excellent result for a Lions side that reward 17,000 loyal fans, however some serious questions will need to be asked of a Port Adelaide side that failed to fight for loose ball or bring any energy or intensity to the contest.

A low scoring first quarter would have had the purists worried, but Brisbane exploded with six majors to take the lead (one they never relinquished) and control of the game.  The goals in that period were shared around, but Josh Green (3), Mitch Robinson (3), Allen Christensen (2) were the leaders in that respect for the match.

Port Adelaide have exactly a week to change their attitude and improve their intensity.  They meet the much improved Tigers who will be riding high over this weeks win over Collingwood and need a win to keep in touch with the leaders.