Tag: Grand Final

Can the “Doggies” Break their 55 Year AFL Grand Final Drought?

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2016 AFL Grand Final – Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs

As sporting events go, Aussie Rules is as tough as they come. It is certainly no sport for weaklings or sensitive souls. So here we are once again at AFL Grand Final time, that “One day in September”, which ironically falls on October 1 this year. The venue is the Melbourne Cricket Ground, one of the most iconic of all sporting venues.

You could be forgiven for thinking that this will be just like any other AFL final…except it isn’t! For a start, the Western Bulldogs are taking part. So what’s so special about that? The record books show they haven’t participated in an AFL Grand Final since 1961, and that has been far too long between drinks for “Doggies” fans; they’re desperate to end the drought.

No Certainty for Sydney

The Swans have been finalists on a regular basis and they really seem to perform well in the big pressure games. So what can we expect? Firstly, the Sydney Swans have plenty of Grand Final experience. On the flip side they have also been known to blow up on the big occasions too. This season’s stats seem to suggest that this game could be close.

Sydney’s win over Geelong in last week’s preliminary final is an instructive game to take into consideration when looking for a winner in this match. Sure, Sydney won, but they failed in a couple of key areas. One being the inside 50’s. Geelong came out on top in that one 72-40.

Preferred Defence

What this does however is give the “Dogs” an insight into how Sydney are looking to defend. The big question is can they exploit that? The Swans have been one of the top teams this season when it comes to clearances. In fact, only the Greater Western Sydney Giants have bettered them. The Bulldogs have also performed well in this area. So what we have in this final is a battle in the midfield.

Who Will Win the Midfield?

The midfield is going to be the key. The experts, pundits and ex-players all seem to agree. Whoever wins the midfield on Saturday will win the game. Sydney has a formidable line up. Kennedy, Jack, Parker and Hannebery are as tough as they come. However the Dogs won the clearance battle last time out. Many believe they will do it again.

All this makes for one thing. An absolutely enthralling AFL Grand Final. So where is your money going, and where will the value be? Sun Bets have the Swans as clear favourites at 4/7. Do they deserve to be so short?

Time to Place a Wager

With the Dogs at 11/8 and showing some good game stats this season then many people will fancy those odds!

If these potential wagers don’t get you excited, then try these. You could get 6/1 with Sun Bets on Western Bulldogs overturning a half-time deficit and going on to win the game. If you fancy the Swans to win and be ahead at half time, then you may want to take a punt on the 4/5 being offered. So come on, are you a man or a mouse?

Do you go for the safer option and take odds on? Experience shows that favourites don’t always win these games. All it takes is for one player to underperform. This means that the underdog stands a great chance as long as they are not outclassed.

One thing is sure, the Western Bulldogs may be the underdogs in this clash, but they are certainly not outclassed. They have the personnel to win this match and upset the odds, and the stats back that up.

 

 

NRL Grand Final Review

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Forty-three years of heartache has been replaced by an epic hangover for Michael MacGuire’s Rabbitohs team after they demolished (on the scoreboard at least, the actual game was slightly closer) the Bulldogs in Sunday’s NRL Grand Final.

The win reduced Greg Inglis to tears and Sam Burgess’ face to smithereens, but crucially it ends a dramatic drought in South Sydney silverware. The game itself always felt like it was going in South Sydney’s favour. They dominated possession; completed their sets well; looked more dangerous with ball in hand (in particular centres Walker and Auva’a). They even crossed for a disallowed try before finally getting on the score sheet through punters favourite Alex Johnston.

Despite dominating, Souths did not take all of their chances. Things were actually quite tight and still 6-6 after 55 minutes until George Burgess scored. For what it is worth, I actually thought George Burgess was better than Clive Churchill Medal brother Sam in this game. George too suffered the indignity of a head injury yet still managed a huge workload in just over 60 minutes.

George Burgess – 18 Hit Ups for 200m. 3 Tackle Busts. 1 Try. 21 Tackles

Sam Burgess – 22 Hit Ups for 207m. 31 Tackles.

Other than some Tony Williams busts the Bulldogs showed little penetration in attack. Trent Hodkinson went missing, and Josh Reynolds confused the times to run / kick. The weight of pressure eventually told on the Blue and White’s; as a result they fell away significantly in the final quarter. Souths were able to expose some big holes in the middle of the Bulldog’s defence, past a tiring James Graham and co who were struggling without the fortification provided by Mick Ennis.

The Rabbits win is a fair reflection on a great season; a deserved NRL Grand Final win. The turnaround from the 2006 wooden spoon season is nothing short of miraculous. Granted, Russell Crowe has thrown a load of money at the club (and its rumoured James Packer will too if he buys a stake), but take nothing away form a clearly dedicated team who appear to like each other and get on well. The post game emotion outlines a deep respect for the club members, and is in stark contrast to the dressing room scenes described by Kevin Pietersen in the England cricket team, proving camaraderie can heighten performance.

The bookies won’t be at all surprised by the result of the NRL Grand Final. They would have expected to pay out on the Rabbitohs, and on Sam Burgess taking home the Clive Churchill medal. Of my predictions last week none of them were useful; George Burgess scored the second try (not the first I had him for) meaning some sites may have offered money back; Adam Reynolds let us down, and the Bulldogs couldn’t muster first half points.

Souths’ victory brings an NRL season to an end, however the Four Nations tournament begins October 25.  I’ll report back in closer to the time with some tips for the tournament featuring Australia, NZ, England and Samoa.

NRL Grand Final Preview

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It has arrived. The conclusion to a competition that is consistently viewed as one of the most even in the World. The end of the constant headlines that the players attract for off field antics (think Mitchell Pearce, The ASADA Sharks, Todd Carney). And sans State of Origin, the pièce de résistance, of the Rugby League calendar.

The Grand Final.

South Sydney and Canterbury are both worthy finalists. They have been the epitome of finals footy. Calm, professional, dedicated and passionate. Despite paving a very different path to the finals; the Rabbitohs qualified third and even earned themselves a week off in the finals; the Bulldogs however stumbled into the playoffs when results went their way, but have fought back strongly to beat the Melbourne, Manly and Penrith; both teams are in with a chance of taking home the Provan-Summons Trophy.

Injury and suspension have added to the drama, and possibly gone some way as to even the scale. Isaac Luke who in my view is one of the most underrated rugby league players on the planet is suspended. Mick Ennis it seems has broken every bone in his foot. The manner in which the teams respond to the loss of their hooker’s may have a massive bearing on this game.

The talking points:

Rabbitohs: The Rabbitohs haven’t won an NRL Grand Final since 1971. Despite assembling an impressive squad over the past few seasons they are yet to put it together and deliver the silverware their members demand. 2014 might be one of their best opportunities if losing Ben Te’o is any indicator. The mix of seasoned professionals (Greg Inglis, Lote Tuqiri, Sam Burgess) and young guns (Luke Keary, Dylan Walker, Alex Johnston) has allowed the Rabbitohs to play an exciting brand of football, one that should be able to run over the Bulldogs in the second half. The only question marks I can see are over their ability to control the ruck without Isaac Luke, and the lack of big game experience (just Inglis and Tuqiri have played in grand finals).

Bulldogs: Des Hasler may end being the best NRL coach of all time. His ability to get the best out of ball playing forwards has been the basis of strong finals runs for both his former Manly side and current Bulldogs crop. James Graham and Josh Jackson are prime examples of the types of players that work well in Dessies setup. But they’ll need a fast start to conquer the strong second half abilities of the Rabbitohs. That task gets though only gets harder without Ennis’ tackling and leadership. Carrying the weight will inevitably fall on the halves pairing of Josh Reynolds and Trent Hodkinson. Their battle with Adam Reynolds will also have a big influence on the result.

Where’s The Money? The money is on the Rabbits. Punters have put down double the amount on the Rabbits ($1.42) than the Bulldogs ($3) to win the NRL Grand Final. This is pretty surprising given the teams shared one win each during the regular season match-ups and both were settled by less than 8 points. Lots of money being placed on the Clive Churchill medal winner too. Sam Burgess is the joint-favourite at $4, but Greg Inglis has received plenty of attention at $4 too.

Our Pick: I really want there to be a reason to pick the Bulldogs. I like the odds. I like the way their forwards play. However, I also know that grand finals are often won by moments of brilliance (Benji Marhsall, Keiran Foran) and not pure grit. South Sydney have the x-factor; the players capable of blowing a game open. They’ve also been hugely impressive in the last few weeks. Although I think the Bulldogs is worth a punt if you have a spare tenner, save the big money for the Rabbitohs. By 12.

Cheeky: Adam Reynolds for Clive Churchill at $9. George Burgess for first try at $21. Bulldogs at half time, Rabbitohs at full time $6.50.

*Odds courtesy of TAB.