Tag: Scottish National

Scottish National Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Scottish National is always a tricky race to call. It comes so soon after the Aintree Grand National that it is rare for a horse from that event to be able to perform at its best. It also leaves us in the dark as far as running plans are concerned but it seems as though Paul Nicholls intends to run top weight Tidal Bay.

He was unlucky to exit the National last week but went on to make his presence felt when steering Across The Bay out of the race. Nicholls reasons that he has not had a hard race but he still has to concede a lot of weight. Perhaps more significantly, he keeps the weights compressed for everything else in the race including stable companion Sam Winner.

Sam Winner suffered a very severe injury a couple of seasons ago and looked unlikely to race again. It is to his credit that he has come back well enough to rank highly in the novice chase division this season. I gave him an each-way chance in the RSA Chase and he travelled well for a long way before weakening. Back in handicap company, he could be interesting. The RSA Chase form was not covered in glory at Aintree last week but I blame the different track for O’Faolains Boy’s poor effort and expect to see him back to his best next season.

One horse that did not make the Aintree line up was Alan King’s Godsmejudge. The trainer felt that he was just not quite ready for it and he has decided to come back here to attempt to repeat last year’s victory. In terms of the handicap, he is only 6lbs higher than when winning so impressively last season. It is difficult to be too confident about a horse that has not managed to complete in his last two races but there were mitigating circumstances.

The stable were well below par when he pulled up at Sandown and perhaps he just took a long time to get over the virus. We will soon know our fate as he usually travels quite nicely in his races and struck for home a long way out last year. He is certainly worth an each-way interest at 20-1 for a course and distance winner.

The race could be turned on its head if Tidal Bay comes out so we will watch the final declarations with interest.

Sam Winner at 11-1 Sportingbet

Godsmejudge at 20-1 Bet365

Ayr & Newbury April 20th Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

A dead-heat for Sandy Lane (2-1) on Thursday extended our winning run to four following Move In Time (9-1), Gabrial (4-1) and Garswood (5-2). It can’t possibly last can it? We are already on Global Village at 11-1 for the Newbury Spring Cup and he looks sure to give us a good run for our money.

Having looked at the final declarations for the Newbury race, I cannot understand why Justonefortheroad is freely available at 20-1 and as high as 26-1 on Betfair. He also ran a cracker in the Lincoln but did not quite have the finishing kick displayed by Levitate and Global Village. With such a large field, the draw is bound to come into play. Global Village is in stall 7 whilst Justonefortheroad is in 23. I think a bit of each-way support on the Fahey horse makes sense.

A fascinating card also includes Guineas trials and the Group 3 Dubai Duty Free Stakes (better known as the John Porter). Sir Henry Cecil could hardly have had a better week and there will be plenty of support for Noble Mission on his seasonal debut. He faces some useful opponents including Guarantee, well beaten in the Leger last time, and Model Pupil. The latter has got the assistance of Ryan Moore and is being spoken of as a possible Cup horse this season.

The classic fillies on show include Rosdhu Queen and Maureen. The seventh furlong is unknown territory for both and these trials don’t always go to plan. I’m happy to sit this one out and the colts trial looks like a match between Olympic Glory and Moohajim. Richard Hannon’s colt will go off favourite after stable companion Toronado ran away with the Craven this week but I have a lot of respect for Moohajim. He looked likely to win at Newmarket last time but was just denied by the battling Reckless Abandon. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him enter the Guineas picture here.

The going has played havoc with running plans for the Scottish National at Ayr with my ante-post selections taken out after heavy rain this week. The going is currently officially soft and I can report a warm drying day up in Scotland today (Make a note of it, there aren’t that many!). After 50-1 and 66-1 winners in the Irish and English Nationals, it would not surprise me one bit if there is another upset tomorrow.

Of more interest from a punting point of view is the reappearance of Grumeti in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. He was right up there with the best as a juvenile but has been kept off the track this season. Alan King would not run him here if he didn’t feel that he was fit enough to do himself justice and I think the 5-1 with William Hill looks good value.

Justonefortheroad 26-1 Betfair
Grumeti 5-1 William Hill

Scottish National Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Following a 50-1 winner of the Irish National and Aurora’s Encore’s 66-1 triumph at Aintree last weekend, you couldn’t really blame punters for giving the Scottish National a miss. Trainer Sue Smith is apparently considering whether or not to let her National winner take his chance at Ayr under after an 11lb rise in the weights. That may sound steep but is actually only a 5lb higher mark than last year when he was edged out by Merigo.

Whilst every sniff and sneeze was reported for the Aintree participants, we are left to rely largely on guesswork when it comes to the Scottish National. The list of entries looks impressive enough but it is worth remembering that there is no non-runner/no bet rule on offer at the moment so we have to tread carefully.

It seems like half of the Grand National field are entered but it is anybody’s guess whether they will turn up. The races are quite close together this year so I’d have thought the likes of Teaforthree and Cappa Bleu were extremely doubtful. Aintree also-rans include Roberto Goldback, Chicago Grey, Join Together, Across The Bay and Rare Bob. The bookmakers also seem to be in the dark as they have put up Cheltenham faller Rival D’Estruval as their ante-post favourite at 8-1 with Always Right at 10-1 and it is 12-1 bar.

Until we hear otherwise, I’d have thought the best policy would be to draw a line through the Aintree runners and look elsewhere. Rival D’Estruval’s case is obvious enough having looked an unlucky faller in the National Hunt Chase at the festival. He has been declared a definite starter after pleasing in his subsequent work but the race is something of an after-thought and there is no way of telling whether his confidence has been affected. Always Right is a difficult one to assess. He was third in this race two years ago and that is a definite point in his favour. He followed up that run with victory at Kelso but then lost his way completely. I remember him cantering into contention at Haydock in the National Trial before pulling up rapidly.

Last time out he won the Kelso race in which Aurora’s Encore was a fifty-three length sixth! Before getting too carried away, it may be more to the point that he beat the 12-year-old Garleton by a head at level weights. One race that could be worth studying for clues is the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster in March. Quentin Collonges beat Mr Moss by half a length and they are set to meet on the same terms. Quentin Collonges choked last year in the Scottish National and now wears a tongue strap whilst Mr Moss is trained by Evan Williams, second at Aintree with Cappa Bleu.

There are several younger horses that could be improving, notably the novices Houblon Des Obeaux and Poungach. Neither seem to be particularly well handicapped but Cheltenham winner Same Difference would be interesting if he took his chance. He looks to have plenty of stamina and put up a fine performance to grab Super Duty on the line at the festival. He is set to race off a 7lb higher mark but looks capable of taking the step up. He races in the same colours as Captain Dibble who won the race in 1992.

Silver By Nature and Wyck Hill are on their way back from injury whilst Well Refreshed looks a mudlark who is unlikely to get his conditions here. Godsmejudge ran well enough at Cheltenham but looks decidedly slow. White Star Line is a possible long shot from low in the weights but he looks difficult to win with.

Same Difference 14-1 Ladbrokes
Quentin Collonges 14-1 Coral
Mr Moss 20-1 Coral