Tag: Roger Varian

Horse Racing Preview – Monday 18th May

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There is horse racing action on turf at Redcar, Leicester and Windsor on Monday and we have tips at all three meetings.

The 3.50 at Redcar sees a very quick reappearance for Desert Law who finished third at York last week. We made him a speculative each-way selection in a big field and he stuck on well enough after looking to hold every chance at the furlong pole. It is interesting that he turns out again so quickly with Graham Lee taking over in the saddle. He may have seen too much daylight that day as he is not the easiest horse to win with. The big danger looks to be Noble Asset who was a good second at Doncaster last time.

The 7.05 race at Windsor has only attracted three runners but Silver Wings looks good value at around even money. He bounced out smartly and made all here on his debut but missed a beat at the start at Chester. He soon made up the ground and looked set to win at the furlong pole only to be out-battled by Rah Rah. That could turn out to be very decent form and he is preferred to Soapy Aitken.

In the 7.35 race, Roger Varian runs Tazffin, a well-bred maiden who was second at Newmarket to Irish Rookie on her debut last season. That filly was second in the French 1000 Guineas this spring while Tazffin’s dam was the useful Tarfshi, winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes in Ireland. Varian has decided to run her in a hood on Monday so she may have her quirks but most of her rivals have never seen a racecourse before.

At Leicester, there is a fascinating handicap at 7.45. Richard Fahey was overshadowed at York by Mark Johnston last week but did finally get on the score-sheet on Friday and has had two more winners since. He saddles impressive Musselburgh winner, Third Time Lucky.

He made all to slam Go Dan Go on the Scottish track and looks very leniently treated here on a mark of 79. The runner-up has since won twice, last time by five lengths off a mark of 74. There are dangers, particularly Godolphin’s Muqarred and the John Gosden-trained Occult, but 9-2 looks a good price for the Fahey runner.

Desert Law 3.50 Redcar @3-1 Ladbrokes

Silver Wings 7.05 Windsor @11-10 Betfair

Tazffin 7.35 Windsor @2-1 Bet365

Third Time Lucky 7.45 Leicester @9-2 Ladbrokes

Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial Preview

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The flat racing turf season is not that far away and it is Lincoln Trial day at Wolverhampton on Saturday. The Lincoln can be something of a lottery but the trial is worth a tidy £50,000 so usually attracts a decent field.

Mindurownbusiness represents trainer Roger Varian and is currently priced at 25-1 for the big Doncaster handicap. Graham Lee takes the ride tomorrow on the four-year-old son of Cape Cross who put up his best performance to date when beating Sovereign Debt at Lingfield last month. Jim Crowley was in the saddle that day and always had the colt handily placed before striking for home with a furlong to run.

He holds Melvin The Grate (fourth), Don’t Call Me (sixth) and Halation (seventh) on that form. Mindurownbusiness has gone up 7lbs and has been beaten on his previous visits to the midlands track but it is difficult to see any of the beaten horses reversing the form.

Halation went on to beat Holiday Magic by a head last week at Lingfield but has five and a half lengths to make up. His cause will certainly be helped by the 7lbs claim of Tom Marquand but he has drawn stall ten. Melvin The Grate looks to be in the grip of the handicapper while top weight Solar Deity has not won since 2013.

The fly in the ointment could be Santefisio who was very unlucky when eighth behind Baddilini last time out. Jockey Joe Fanning could be seen sat up in the irons inside the final furlong with nowhere to go. He was forced to accept the situation and finished less than five lengths off the winner. Santefisio is a bit of a law unto himself so caution is advised but there are probably worse 10-1 shots.

In the Listed race which opens the card I like the chances of Sovereign Debt. He chased home Mindurownbusiness and was then unlucky in running behind Baddilini, flashing home in third place. He is 3lbs better off with runner-up Grey Mirage for three-quarters of a length and 11lbs better off with the winner. He breaks from stall one but Joe Fanning will probably try to get him covered up early on.  Intransigent has been a good friend of this column but all of his wins have come in the Autumn/Winter and he carries a 3lbs penalty here.

Sovereign Debt 2.15 Wolverhampton @6-1 Stan James

Mindurownbusiness 2.50 Wolverhampton @9-2 Stan James

Santefisio 2.50 Wolverhampton @10-1 Ladbrokes

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3

Royal Ascot Saturday Preview

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Royal Ascot comes to an end on Saturday with the Diamond Jubilee Stakes being the headline event. With the possible exception of Black Caviar’s sensational visit, this race seems an odd one to feature on the closing Saturday. In fact, I am surprised that they haven’t moved the Ascot Gold Cup to the Saturday as most of the other traditions have gone out of the window in recent years!

The Gold Cup was the highlight of the week for me. What a game effort by Estimate to get so close to winning it for a second consecutive season for Her Majesty. I thought that last year’s runner-up Simenon hinted at a return to form by making up a good deal of ground in the home straight. With Brown Panther also running well on ground faster than he likes, there are plenty of options including the Melbourne Cup again for both horses.

My regular readers will know that I have followed Aljamaaheer throughout his career and that he has seldom let me down. He is quite an easy horse to read in that he loves fast ground, almost always pulls too hard and just barely gets home over a mile. With that in mind, it is not that surprising that Roger Varian has trained him for the sprints this season.

His first attempt came at the Craven meeting where he duly missed the break! It was probably the one thing that could possibly beat him that day, rather like England failing to mark the one player on the pitch capable of beating them on Thursday night!

Hopefully Paul Hanagan will make sure that he gets away on level terms and he will surely run a good race. He is not that easy to win with as he tends to only win in photographs but he looks solid each-way value.

My other bet on the Ascot card is for Sir Michael Stoute’s Telescope in the Hardwicke Stakes. Stoute has only got two top class middle-distance colts and it seems odd that they face each other here. Hillstar could be the biggest threat as he handles this quicker ground but Telescope looked a class act at York last year and we’ll give him one more chance. His form with Noble Mission doesn’t look so bad after that horse won a Group 1 in Ireland.

Telescope 3.45 Royal Ascot at 9-4 Paddy Power, BetVictor

Aljamaaheer 4.25 Royal Ascot at 9-2 Paddy Power

Doncaster Wednesday Preview

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Lingfield’s all-weather surface provided the best of the entertainment at the weekend after Sandown and Wincanton were lost to the weather. We kicked off with an 11-4 winner but then suffered a bout of seconditis with our remaining three selections all finding one too good.

The weather situation has eased slightly and we should be in for some decent national hunt racing at Warwick and Kempton this coming Saturday. The Warwick Chase sometimes throws up a decent Grand National prospect whilst Kempton’s Lanzarote Hurdle looks wide open. I have not seen any confirmed running plans so I’m going to wait until nearer the day before risking any cash.

Doncaster’s Wednesday card is not the greatest in the world but at least it helps to get the show back on the road. Trainer Nicky Henderson had an up-and-down Christmas with the victory of Bobs Worth and the worry of Sprinter Sacre’s heart problems. He has a runner in each of the opening three races at Town Moor tomorrow and all have chances.

Nordic Quest runs in the opener after an encouraging debut at Huntingdon when third to Wadswick Court. Namibian, a Group 3 winner on the flat when trained by Mark Johnston, was a disappointing eighth in that race after being eased to a walk. Nordic Quest was rated some 30lbs inferior to Namibian on the level but a few flights of hurdles can make a surprising amount of difference.

Nesterenko carries the Henderson hopes in the second race and bids to follow up an impressive 9-length victory here last month. Mr Mitchell takes off 7lbs and this looks a competitive race but he’s worth a chance at the odds on offer.

Act Alone is the third of the Lambourn raiding party as he bids to get off the mark in the novice hurdle. He was beaten at odds-on by Lemon Ground in a photo finish at Fontwell but a repeat of that effort might be good enough.

Over at Lingfield, it is worth taking note of Miguel Grau in the handicap at 2.00. He is Roger Varian’s only runner on the card and won despite running a little too freely last time out. The four-year-old is still lightly raced and could be up to defying a penalty.

Nordic Quest 12.10 Doncaster

Nesterenko 12.40 Doncaster 5-2 William Hill

Act Alone 1.10 Doncaster

Miguel Grau 2.00 Lingfield 9-4 Coral