Tag: Premier League

Liverpool vs. Stoke: Can PMA Upset Liverpool?

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With an extra day to sleep off the Christmas turkey, Liverpool’s finest will be looking to move a few steps closer to Chelsea in the Premier League race when they welcome Stoke on December 27.

With a hard-fought win over Everton in their last outing, Jurgen Klopp’s men will be hoping for more of the same against Stoke and the stats suggest that could be the case. If we look back through time, Liverpool has dominated Stoke at home. Although away trips haven’t been quite as bountiful, Liverpool has managed to win 48 of their last 65 ties against The Potters.

That sort of home form, combined with Liverpool’s recent run in the Premier League has naturally led Sun Bets’ odds makers to price the Merseyside as the heavy favourites ahead of the match. Currently priced at 2/7, the odds would suggest this will be one of the most one-sided festive matches this season.

It’s About More than Numbers for Hughes

However, do the numbers really tell the whole story? Well, according to manager Mark Hughes, last January’s League Cup exploits could be just the confidence boost his players need. Although Stoke ultimately lost on penalties in the semi-final, they did “win” the match 1-0 during normal time. Had it not been for aggregate goals from the previous leg, Hughes’ men might have made it to the final.

Unfortunately, fate would have it that they fell just short, but Hughes believes that his players can replicate that performance on the 27th. Speaking to the local press, Hughes claimed it was “belief” that helped clinch that match and that his team will be heading to Anfield without any pressure.

“We went there with a real determination and a key element to our performance was belief. We will go there with a positive mindset, not apprehension, and give it a go. There’s no pressure on us and we never go there with the intention of protecting what we’ve got,” Hughes told the Stoke Sentinel.

If PMA (positive mental attitude) can overcome the skill gap, then a tenner on Stoke at 9/1 with bet365 would make a nice late Christmas present. But, with news that referee Michael Oliver will be taking charge of the game, that positive mindset could be in danger of fading fast by the time the two teams kickoff.

When PMA Isn’t Enough

Oliver became something of a pantomime villain at Stoke after a dodgy penalty decision allowed Everton to score from the spot and earn a narrow victory. Although that incident took place on the other side of Liverpool, it’s something many travelling Stoke fans will remember and that could easily create the sort of negative vibes manager Hughes wants to avoid.

Of course, the players will have slightly more pressing issues on their minds when the game starts, but there’s always a chance Oliver’s presence could leave a lingering doubt in their minds. If that’s the case and Hughes’ only saving grace is a positive mindset, then Stoke could really be in trouble on the 27th.

Taking the outright odds out of the equation as they’re simply too short to offer much value, the bets of the day looks to be Liverpool win by one of the following score lines:

2-0 = 6/1 at Ladbrokes

3-0 = 7/1 at Ladbrokes

3-1 = 9/1 at Ladbrokes

Liverpool has already scored 41 this season and conceded just 20 which suggests they’ve got plenty of firepower in the tank. Although Stoke has only conceded 24, their strike rate is just 19 Premier League goals. Taking this into account, it looks unlikely the Potters will get a sniff of the net at Anfield. Yes, Liverpool might not have it all their own way, but once the floodgates open this one could turn into a riot.

For the most value, 2-0 looks to be a wise investment, but if you’re looking for something a little juicier and believe we might get a Christmas cracker, 3-1 at the price is a great shout.

Will Leicester City Make History Again?

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Leicester City overcame pre-season odds of 5000-1 to win the Premier League last season. This is surely a feat that will never be repeated in our lifetime. They made history several times with regards to the records that they set but they are in danger of doing so again.

Only one team in the history of the English top flight have been relegated the season after being champions. The Foxes are in danger of repeating that. They only have 17pts from 17 games and that point per game ratio if continued will leave them fighting relegation come the end of the season.

The Big Problems

They host Everton in what is a crucial game for the Foxes. While it isn’t a “must-win” game by any means, defeat would be a big blow for Leicester. So just what has gone wrong? It’s an accumulation of problems. The main one has been their level of intensity. This has dropped alarmingly since last season and the stats back that up. There is a reason why top players and top teams keep on performing season after season. The big advantage that they have is in their mentality.

The top players are “top players” because they produce top performances season after season. If the Leicester players were in that category then they would surely have been snapped up by other clubs before they joined Leicester City. So a big problem has been in being able to rise to the same heights again and to retain the motivation levels. Clearly, Leicester has struggled in this area. Secondly, they lost N’Golo Kante to Chelsea.

Losing the Midfield Dynamo

Allowing Chelsea to snatch N’Golo Kante has proved to be a big loss for Leicester. So much of their play went through him and he was certainly pivotal in most of their attacking play. The new rules on holding and grappling in the penalty area have also handicapped Leicester City. Players like Wes Morgan and Robert Huth were masters of the “dark arts” of defending.

Leicester will continue to struggle this season because they have simply lost their intensity. They host Everton who will be eager to bounce back from their stoppage time home derby defeat to Liverpool. Despite all of Leicester’s problems, they can be backed at an outstanding 9-4 with Coral. That is surely too high and represents great value. Leicester swept aside Manchester City recently which is another indication that 9-4 is a good bet.

The draw can be backed at 12-5 with Ladbrokes while Everton seems poor value at 2-1 with BetVictor. The demands of playing Champions League football have also taken their toll on Leicester. In the Premier League, opponents have become very familiar with Leicester’s style and this is another factor as to why they have struggled this season.

Liverpool Simply Cannot Afford to Lose

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The Merseyside Derby is one of the most eagerly awaited matches in the English Premier League calendar. This fixture has a long history with many famous matches being played down the years. Merseyside Derbies have even been played out in cup finals too. There were two famous all-Merseyside FA Cup finals within the space of three years in 1986 and 1989. On Monday evening they will be battling for points at Goodison Park. Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp has made a great start to the season. Everton has been solid as well.

Title D-Day for Liverpool

It is only a couple of weeks ago that Liverpool was being spoken of as title challengers. They then had a crushing 4-3 loss at Bournemouth and dropped further points at home to West Ham. Couple this with Chelsea’s brilliant unbeaten run and the Reds are now nine points behind the men from Stamford Bridge. Should they lose this derby on Monday night then it will look increasingly likely that the title could be slipping away before the end of the calendar year.

Liverpool has put in numerous stunning attacking displays this season. Jurgen Klopp has certainly brought exciting times to Anfield. The question is, do Liverpool really have the personnel to challenge for the title? There is a world of difference between challenging in November and being in contention in April. Liverpool is similar to Manchester City in that they are prone to leaking goals. Their capitulation away to Bournemouth was proof of that.

Koeman has steadied the Ship

Everton, on the other hand, has been solid if unspectacular this season. After several recent managerial changes, they clearly needed stability. David Moyes left to go to Old Trafford and Roberto Martinez did well for a while before he was replaced. It is tough to see Everton reaching the top six this season. This match is a tough one to call because it all depends on whether Liverpool can “park the bus” well enough to prevent defensive mistakes.

This has been their Achilles heel this season. Even their goalkeepers have been causing Jurgen Klopp problems. It is clear that Liverpool needs to strengthen their defence. If they cannot do so in time during the January transfer window then the title is surely out of reach this season. William Hill quotes odds of 19-20 for a Liverpool win. Meanwhile, Everton can be backed at 3-1 with PaddyPower and Stan James with the draw at 11-4 with Bet365.

If you are looking for value in these prices then it doesn’t appear to be with Liverpool. Everton will be up for this game. Their loyal fans will not let them put in anything other than a solid display. Jurgen Klopp will be acutely aware that staying nine points behind Chelsea in the table could prove to be terminal for their title chances. The value does seem to be either in the draw at 11-4 or the 3-1 for a home win.

Manchester City vs. Arsenal: Will We See a Festive Flop?

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When Arsenal travel to Manchester City on December 18, fans of every team in the top five will be waiting with baited breath for the final score to come in.

Whenever two of the Premier League’s top clubs clash it can have a cataclysmic effect one way or another and things will be no different on Sunday. Despite a loss in their last match, Arsenal will start that game with the league advantage over City.

Yes, the difference between Arsenal and City at this point is just a single point, but the more significant stat could be goals. Arsene Wenger’s men are proving superior in front of their own and their opponent’s goals this season.

Goals May Matter in Manchester

With a goal difference of 20 compared to City’s 15, the stats would suggest that Arsenal should get at least one goal at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday. Building on that, Arsenal have won four of their last six games while Pep Guardiola’s side have just two wins, two draws and two losses.

For all intents and purposes, Arsenal should be the favourites going into this game, but the bookmakers don’t appear to see it that way. A look through Sun Bets’ latest pre-game betting lines shows City will start the game as 11/10 favourites over Arsenal at 12/5.

It’s a similar story over at Unibet with the home side sitting at 23/20, while Ladbrokes has it at 6/5 for a City win. Could it be the recent results from both sides that are tipping the balance or is it Arsenal’s record against City that’s swaying the odds? Well in answer to the second point, no. Arsenal is unbeaten against City in the last six encounters across all competitions.

If that’s the case, then surely it’s the recent results? Well, City certainly looked more comfortable playing with four at the back against Watford, but they were far from convincing. Moreover, Arsenal’s 2-1 loss to Everton could have gone either way.

Has Arsenal Got the Bottle?

What this game could come down to is resolve. Have Arsenal got enough character to bounce back from a tough defeat or will they crumble? If they can bounce back then we know goals could follow and that may hurt City. Although he’s pulled some wins out of the bag, Guardiola’s tactics are still under review, especially at the back, and a few slips against Arsenal could spell trouble.

In fact, to make matters worse, Fernandinho and Sergio Aguero will miss the game which means the team may struggle to cancel out any defensive mistakes with goals. However, if Arsenal’s young players can’t find it within themselves to rally after a defeat to Everton then City could easily steal a win.

Whichever way the result goes, it’s going to be a close one, which is why a draw may be where you should be laying your money. 5/2 at Sun Bets or 13/5 Unibet are strong prices given the fact both teams have their weaknesses heading into the game. Not only that, but you can’t discount the fact neither side will want to head into Christmas with a loss to their closest rival.

Don’t Discount a Draw

With these factors in play, this match could be a much tighter affair than we’re used to seeing. In their last six Premier League showdowns, Arsenal and City have scored 24 goals, which equates an average of four per game.

If we use that logic, 2-2 could be worth a punt at 10/1 with Ladbrokes. However, if we accept that neither side will want to expose themselves to too much risk, 1-1 or 0-0 at 6/1 and 12/1 respectively could be the better options.

Manchester City vs. Watford: Patchy Form Makes Outcome Uncertain

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If Watford can remind Manchester City that this is a Premier League game and not a Champions League clash, they may just have a shot at winning on December 14. Despite being separated by nine points in the league, Watford will not only take confidence from their recent win against Everton but from the fact City seem to have a domestic weakness this season.

On the European scene, Pep Guardiola’s men have looked strong in recent outings. A draw against Mönchengladbach was preceded by a 3-1 win over Barcelona. With nine points and a place in the knockout stages virtually secured, the Sky Blues will be looking to make a solid run after the Christmas break.

A Tale of Two Competitions

However, as can often happen when a club has one eye on Europe, form at home starts to slip, and on December 10 the Premier League favourites lost in dramatic fashion against Leicester City. Within 20 minutes of the start, Leicester not only seemed to roll back the clock to last season’s dominance over City but exposed that their opponent’s defensive frailties. Conceding three to a Leicester side that has struggled to score more than two-a-game this season is enough to make any manager question their tactics and that’s exactly how Guardiola looked on the touchline.

Although his team were able to rally in the second half, a defensive mistake by John Stones allowed Leicester to score a fourth and take the match 4-2. While that loss doesn’t put the Premier League title completely out of reach, it’s fair to say that City’s fingers are now a few inches short of touching the trophy. Indeed, with a seven point gap between City in fourth and Chelsea in first, it would take an impressive run by the Manchester side to turn things around.

Watford Could be a Stepping Stone

Fortunately, step one of that march towards the title could start on Wednesday night. With Watford showing patchy form so far this season, City could easily rebound and make a strong statement when they welcome the London side. However, if you’re expecting this to be a whitewash then you might want to save your money because Watford on the right day could put up a tough fight. Yes, if the same side that lost 6-1 to Liverpool turns up then it will be an easy night for City. But, if the players perform like they did in their 2-1 win over Leicester, then anything could happen.

For those who feel it will be a repeat of the Liverpool game, Sun Bets is currently offering 1/4 on a home win. If, however, you think the gritty, Leicester conquering version of Watford will arrive at the Etihad on Wednesday then 10/1 is your betting line.

Now, if we went from a purely form-based angle this season, betting on a home win is the way to go. In fact, if you’re looking for the best value, taking into account City’s occasional defensive faux pas, 2-1 or 3-1 at 8/1 and 9/1 respectively with William Hill looks to be the way to go.

Who Will Fire First?

What is clear, however, is that Manchester City aren’t firing on all cylinders this season and there’s a chance they may misfire again on December 14. If this does happen, a Watford win is certainly possible, but if we’re being realistic a draw would be the most likely result. 11/2 on a draw with bet365 is one of the better prices out there at the moment and might just be worth a few quid.

By all means, it should be treated as a punt given the likelihood that City will want to rectify Saturday’s embarrassing defeat, but given the way both teams have performed this season, it’s not out of the question. If one comes in on form and the other doesn’t (as has happened a few times this season), then it could easily go either way. But, if you’re looking for a sensible bet that doesn’t go too far against the grain, then City to win looks the most likely outcome this week.

Arsenal vs. Bournemouth: Will Wilshere Make the Difference?

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Could Jack Wilshere be the missing link on November 27 when Bournemouth travel to Arsenal? The Arsenal midfielder is currently on loan at Bournemouth following a spell of injuries and poor form, but he’ll have to sit this game out under the rules governing players on a temporary contract.

Since moving to Bournemouth, Wilshere has played nine games and looks to be returning to the sort of form that saw him hailed as one of Arsenal’s next great hopes. In fact, with injuries now a distant memory and his link-up plays starting to find their mark, Wilshere recently received an England call-up from Gareth Southgate.

Wilshere In Form but Out of Action

While it might be a little early to hail the “return” of the 24-year-old talent, he’s certainly looked comfortable in a Bournemouth shirt. Unfortunately, with the FA’s rules preventing him from playing, it looks as though Bournemouth will be up against it at the Emirates.

To date, Arsenal has faced Bournemouth three times and haven’t lost on any occasion. To heap more pressure on Eddie Howe, Arsenal has lost just once this season and currently sit fourth in the Premier League, while Bournemouth has lost five. In any other match, Howe would be looking to Wilshere for some inspiration in the middle of the park, but this Sunday he won’t have the luxury.

Fortunately, however, he does have Harry Arter. The feisty midfielder has been a powerhouse in the centre this season and often comes in with a crunch challenge when it really matters. According to the stats, Arter has won 25 tackles this season, which is the fifth-best total in the league so far this season.

Midfield Strength is Bournemouth’s Best Hope

With Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez often dropping deep from the frontline, a crunch battle between these two could define much of the match. If Arter can slow down Sanchez and prevent him from feeding into the likes of Olivier Giroud and Mesut Ozil, then it could stifle Arsenal’s attacks and give Bournemouth a chance to sneak a win.

However, even if Bournemouth can contain Sanchez, Arsenal are still a threat, and more importantly, the Cherries haven’t exactly been firing on all cylinders this season. With more conceded (16) than scored (14), Bournemouth is struggling for goals and that could be the deciding factor on Sunday.

The current betting line at Sun Bets has Arsenal as the 2/5 favourites and the visitors way out at 13/2. Although Ladbrokes and Paddy Power are both offering 4/1 on a draw, the market is clearly split between the two opposites of wins and losses. Of course, for a bit more value, Sun Bets will give you 8/1 on the familiar one nil to the Arsenal, but this game looks to have more goals in it.

If There Are Goals, They’ll Probably be Arsenal’s

Bournemouth is vulnerable at the back and Arsenal has netted 25 in 12. That would suggest we’re in for two or more goals from the Gunners, which makes 2-0 at 7/1 and 3-0 at 15/2 look highly attractive. For those that want to take advantage of a timely betting offer, Paddy Power is currently offering an instant payout if your team goes two goals up at any stage in the game.

Valid for all pre-match singles in the Win-Draw-Win market, this offer will see you paid out in full as a winner if your selection nets a two-goal lead. Given Arsenal’s current form and goals-per-game average just over the 2.0 mark, this looks like an offer that’s worth taking advantage of.

That deal aside, Arsenal certainly look like the clear favourites heading into this game and it could well be Wilshere’s absence that’s helped this fact. The Arsenal player might not be contributing to his team’s current run, but he may still end up earning three points when Bournemouth travel to London on Sunday.