Tag: betting odds

Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal: A Recurring Nightmare for Wenger

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

When Arsenal travel to Bayern Munich’s Allianz Arena on February 15, they’ll do so without the weight of history on their shoulders according to the home side’s winger, Arjen Robben.

Ahead of the Champions League clash, the Dutch star, who knows Arsene Wenger’s tactics inside from his time at Chelsea, believes that previous results won’t matter when the two lock horns again. Although it looks as though Bayern vs. Arsenal is something of an annual affair given that they’ve played three times in the last four years. However, in the annals of time, the two clubs have only played each other ten times.

Unfortunately for Arsenal, only three of those ten matches have gone their way. However, when Robben talks about previous results, we all know he’s not citing the bare stats (Bayern with 5 wins and 2 draws), we all know he’s talking about 2013, 2014 and 2015. If we look beyond the 2015 5-1 drubbing (we know, that’s hard to do), Bayern has knocked Arsenal out of the Champions League twice in recent memory.

Does History Matter?

Now, fans will instantly recall these results, but the big question is will the players? Well, Robben doesn’t believe it will register with his teammates. Talking to ESPN, Robben admitted that Bayern have “happy memories” against Arsenal but they will need to be 100% focused if they’re going to come out on top.

“They are a very strong team. Even stronger than last year. They’re doing very well in the Premier League. We’ve played them a few times over the last few years and always won — we always got through to the next round — but maybe this one will be the toughest one so far,” Robben told ESPN.

Now, when Robben gave this interview back in December, his assessment that Arsenal was doing “very well” in the Premier League was a fair one. Today, however, things aren’t so good. Although fourth in the table after 24 games, Wenger’s men look unlikely to claim the title and may even miss out on a top three finish. A recent 3-1 loss to Chelsea summed up just how far Arsenal are off the pace and, unsurprisingly, renewed the “Wenger out” calls from some fans.

Bayern are the Form Team

In contrast, Bayern is four points clear of RB Leipzig at the top of the Bundesliga with just one loss to their name this season. Add to that the customary winter break in Germany and it not only seems as though Carlo Ancelotti’s side will start with fresh legs but a ton of confidence. In fact, if the players took a moment to look at the latest betting odds they might find a few more reasons to smile.

Sun Bets currently has the home side as the runaway favourites at 1/2, while William Hill appears to have taken the most pity on Arsenal at 9/2 (Coral is offering 11/2 on an Arsenal win). Now, does this all mean Arsenal will roll over and give Bayern an insurmountable lead ahead of the second leg?

Almost certainly not, but the recent performance against Chelsea won’t inspire many. Lazy defending from Theo Walcott contributed to Chelsea’s first goal and saw him subbed in the second half. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Mesut Ozil both underperformed, while Alexis Sanchez was isolated throughout. One ray of light in the defeat to Chelsea was Laurent Koscielny who continued to battle even when things were going wrong.

There Will be Goals, but Probably Not for Arsenal

Based on those performances, Arsenal will either have to play out of their skins on February 15 to get some sort of result or simply accept they are going to struggle. Looking through the best options, 16/1 from Sun Bets on a 0-0 could have an outside chance of giving you some value. Arsenal’s players will know their best chance of avoiding elimination and progressing in the competition is to steal a draw in Germany and knick a win at the Emirates. Assuming Koscielny can inspire some sort of skill and desire in the likes of Shkodran Mustafi, Arsenal may have a chance of shutting Bayern down.

However, that certainly won’t be easy. With the likes of Robert Lewandowski and the aforementioned Robben running riot in the Bundesliga (21 goals between them), it’s hard to see how Arsenal get this one done. Assuming history repeats itself, the smart money in this game will be on Bayern to score at least two. Over 2.5 goals is a fairly uninspiring 6/10 at Coral, so if you’re looking for some scorecast value, something like 2-0 Bayern (7/1 at Coral) or even 3-1 Bayern (10/1 at Coral) could be good options.

Unfortunately, if you’re an Arsenal fan, February 15 looks as though it’s going to be a long night. Maybe the Gunners can do their trick of upping their game when it counts and get a result. However, all the signs seem to be pointing towards a comfortable win for Bayern Munich on this occasion.

Manchester City vs. Arsenal: Will We See a Festive Flop?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

When Arsenal travel to Manchester City on December 18, fans of every team in the top five will be waiting with baited breath for the final score to come in.

Whenever two of the Premier League’s top clubs clash it can have a cataclysmic effect one way or another and things will be no different on Sunday. Despite a loss in their last match, Arsenal will start that game with the league advantage over City.

Yes, the difference between Arsenal and City at this point is just a single point, but the more significant stat could be goals. Arsene Wenger’s men are proving superior in front of their own and their opponent’s goals this season.

Goals May Matter in Manchester

With a goal difference of 20 compared to City’s 15, the stats would suggest that Arsenal should get at least one goal at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday. Building on that, Arsenal have won four of their last six games while Pep Guardiola’s side have just two wins, two draws and two losses.

For all intents and purposes, Arsenal should be the favourites going into this game, but the bookmakers don’t appear to see it that way. A look through Sun Bets’ latest pre-game betting lines shows City will start the game as 11/10 favourites over Arsenal at 12/5.

It’s a similar story over at Unibet with the home side sitting at 23/20, while Ladbrokes has it at 6/5 for a City win. Could it be the recent results from both sides that are tipping the balance or is it Arsenal’s record against City that’s swaying the odds? Well in answer to the second point, no. Arsenal is unbeaten against City in the last six encounters across all competitions.

If that’s the case, then surely it’s the recent results? Well, City certainly looked more comfortable playing with four at the back against Watford, but they were far from convincing. Moreover, Arsenal’s 2-1 loss to Everton could have gone either way.

Has Arsenal Got the Bottle?

What this game could come down to is resolve. Have Arsenal got enough character to bounce back from a tough defeat or will they crumble? If they can bounce back then we know goals could follow and that may hurt City. Although he’s pulled some wins out of the bag, Guardiola’s tactics are still under review, especially at the back, and a few slips against Arsenal could spell trouble.

In fact, to make matters worse, Fernandinho and Sergio Aguero will miss the game which means the team may struggle to cancel out any defensive mistakes with goals. However, if Arsenal’s young players can’t find it within themselves to rally after a defeat to Everton then City could easily steal a win.

Whichever way the result goes, it’s going to be a close one, which is why a draw may be where you should be laying your money. 5/2 at Sun Bets or 13/5 Unibet are strong prices given the fact both teams have their weaknesses heading into the game. Not only that, but you can’t discount the fact neither side will want to head into Christmas with a loss to their closest rival.

Don’t Discount a Draw

With these factors in play, this match could be a much tighter affair than we’re used to seeing. In their last six Premier League showdowns, Arsenal and City have scored 24 goals, which equates an average of four per game.

If we use that logic, 2-2 could be worth a punt at 10/1 with Ladbrokes. However, if we accept that neither side will want to expose themselves to too much risk, 1-1 or 0-0 at 6/1 and 12/1 respectively could be the better options.

Superstar Mare Tops The Billing On Guineas Day

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

From the moment the final sirens sound in the weekend AFL and NRL Grand Finals, the Australian sporting psyche shifts to the track for the business end of the 2016 Spring Racing Carnival. While things wrap-up in NSW with this Saturday’s Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick, the serious spring racing is just cranking up south of the border, starting at Caulfield.

Guineas Day is for the purists. The racing is black-type from top to bottom, the stars of the turf are out in force and the yobbos and D-listers are still a week away from making their carnival debut. The 3yos take centre stage with the running of the Thousand Guineas and Caulfield Guineas. Cox Plate contenders will tune-up in the Caulfield Stakes while 13 of the country’s better milers will contest the Toorak Handicap.

Bias – what bias?

All three of Melbourne’s Spring Carnival venues feature vastly different layouts. The Caulfield track, operated by the Melbourne Racing Club (MRC), is a triangular-shaped layout, comprising three straights with a total circumference of 2080 metres and a finishing straight of 367 metres. Track bias has been a persistent issue. Last season’s MRC Carnival was almost reduced to farce with the track rating vastly different on the back section (slow) compared to the home straight (good). So far, so good this spring, with the track racing evenly in the recent Memsie and Underwood Stakes meetings.

Watch the gate, mate

It’s absolutely crucial to consider the rail position and barrier draw for races over specific distances at Caulfield. There are just short chutes of 200m from both the 1400m and 1600m starts. If the rail is out more than 3m, it’s bloody tough for the backmarkers even if the track is favouring off-pace runners. In contrast, barrier draws aren’t terribly important from the sprint starts (1000m, 1100m and 1200m) or the 2000m start. We’ll talk about the 2400m start of the Caulfield Cup next week.

She’s back

Guineas Day marks the return to Melbourne of the undoubted superstar of Australian thoroughbred racing. 2015 Cox Plate winner and reigning horse of the year Winx hasn’t been defeated since running second to Gust Of Wind in the 2015 Australian Guineas at Randwick. She’s since won her past 11, all at Group level, taking her winnings north of AUD $7 million. Unfortunately, the 5yo mare is likely to face just two rivals in the G1 Caulfield Stakes, but that field will include Black Heart Bart as he shoots for a third Group 1 title for the spring.

Tosen targets Toorak

One of the more intriguing runners on the card is Japanese import Tosen Stardom. Now in the care of reigning premier trainer Darren Weir, the 5yo entry was being aimed at the Cox Plate, but a leg wound suffered while being floated to Sydney for a George Main Stakes battle against Winx forced Weir to scratch him. Weir is now setting Tosen Stardom for middle-distance features like Saturday’s Group 1 Toorak Handicap (1600m) given the time lost to build his fitness base for the 2000m races. He’ll start on the top line of betting alongside Bon Aurum and He’s Our Rokkii.

Big fields, big interest

The nation’s best 3yo milers have turned out in force for the AUD $1 million Caulfield Guineas and AUD $500,000 Thousand Guineas for the fillies. A 14-horse field will contest the day’s feature where Impending for Team Godolphin remain a $4.40 favourite despite drawing gate 10. Hawkes Racing’s Divine Prophet ($4.80) and Kiwi colt Sacred Elixir at ($6.50) drew 1 and 7 respectively. Foxplay from the all-conquering Chris Waller stable will start a $2.60 top pick in the Thousand Guineas.

*All quoted odds in this article are from Caulfield Guineas sponsor, Ladbrokes.