If Watford can remind Manchester City that this is a Premier League game and not a Champions League clash, they may just have a shot at winning on December 14. Despite being separated by nine points in the league, Watford will not only take confidence from their recent win against Everton but from the fact City seem to have a domestic weakness this season.
On the European scene, Pep Guardiola’s men have looked strong in recent outings. A draw against Mönchengladbach was preceded by a 3-1 win over Barcelona. With nine points and a place in the knockout stages virtually secured, the Sky Blues will be looking to make a solid run after the Christmas break.
However, as can often happen when a club has one eye on Europe, form at home starts to slip, and on December 10 the Premier League favourites lost in dramatic fashion against Leicester City. Within 20 minutes of the start, Leicester not only seemed to roll back the clock to last season’s dominance over City but exposed that their opponent’s defensive frailties. Conceding three to a Leicester side that has struggled to score more than two-a-game this season is enough to make any manager question their tactics and that’s exactly how Guardiola looked on the touchline.
Although his team were able to rally in the second half, a defensive mistake by John Stones allowed Leicester to score a fourth and take the match 4-2. While that loss doesn’t put the Premier League title completely out of reach, it’s fair to say that City’s fingers are now a few inches short of touching the trophy. Indeed, with a seven point gap between City in fourth and Chelsea in first, it would take an impressive run by the Manchester side to turn things around.
Fortunately, step one of that march towards the title could start on Wednesday night. With Watford showing patchy form so far this season, City could easily rebound and make a strong statement when they welcome the London side. However, if you’re expecting this to be a whitewash then you might want to save your money because Watford on the right day could put up a tough fight. Yes, if the same side that lost 6-1 to Liverpool turns up then it will be an easy night for City. But, if the players perform like they did in their 2-1 win over Leicester, then anything could happen.
For those who feel it will be a repeat of the Liverpool game, Sun Bets is currently offering 1/4 on a home win. If, however, you think the gritty, Leicester conquering version of Watford will arrive at the Etihad on Wednesday then 10/1 is your betting line.
Now, if we went from a purely form-based angle this season, betting on a home win is the way to go. In fact, if you’re looking for the best value, taking into account City’s occasional defensive faux pas, 2-1 or 3-1 at 8/1 and 9/1 respectively with William Hill looks to be the way to go.
What is clear, however, is that Manchester City aren’t firing on all cylinders this season and there’s a chance they may misfire again on December 14. If this does happen, a Watford win is certainly possible, but if we’re being realistic a draw would be the most likely result. 11/2 on a draw with bet365 is one of the better prices out there at the moment and might just be worth a few quid.
By all means, it should be treated as a punt given the likelihood that City will want to rectify Saturday’s embarrassing defeat, but given the way both teams have performed this season, it’s not out of the question. If one comes in on form and the other doesn’t (as has happened a few times this season), then it could easily go either way. But, if you’re looking for a sensible bet that doesn’t go too far against the grain, then City to win looks the most likely outcome this week.
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
