Tag: Oscar Whisky

Paddy Power Gold Cup Preview

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It’s the Open meeting at Cheltenham this weekend featuring two big betting races in The Paddy Power Gold Cup (Saturday) and The Greatwood Hurdle (Sunday).

The Paddy Power Gold Cup looks wide open with bookmakers going 7-1 the field. That brings in festival winner Present View who showed his well-being with a fine run in a hurdle race last month. A mistake at the last cost him victory that day but connections were more concerned with an injury picked up in the process. Fortunately it turned out to be no more than skin deep and he is reported back in great form ahead of Saturday’s race.

Last year’s first and second, John’s Spirit and Colour Squadron, return to do battle once again. There is no doubt that the runner-up was unlucky last year when finishing fast to be beaten only three-quarters of a length. He continued to run well in subsequent races but has not managed to get his head in front since 2011. That is hardly a great recommendation but I felt that he was very unlucky not to win at Newton Abbot last time out.

Tom O’Brien was a late replacement for Tony McCoy and decided to let Colour Squadron kick on a long way from home. He should have beaten Wonderful Charm at the weights but began to tie up in the closing stages and was pegged back on the run-in. I feel that he is good value at 12-1 for another big run in this race. He is 4lbs better off with last year’s winner Johns Spirit who recently won in good style. You have to respect Jonjo O’Neill’s horse but he is 17lbs higher than a year ago.

Oscar Whisky has won six times at Cheltenham in his career, all at or around this distance. He fell at the first fence at the festival and was beaten by Uxizandre at Aintree but is a classy horse and should go well. You just wonder whether he stayed over hurdles a little too long to fulfil his potential over fences and it would be a great effort to win this first time out.

Easter Meteor fell two out in this race last year but I’m not convinced that he was travelling well enough to trouble the first two.  He is now with David Pipe but has been put up 8lbs since so is not exactly a dark horse.  Buywise was let down by his jumping when fifth to Present View here in March but put in a clear round to slam Astracad by nine lengths next time. He defied a 6lbs rise at Ludlow but is up a further 6lbs on Saturday.

Colour Squadron @14-1 888Sport, Betway

¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

JLT Novices Chase Preview

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It’s been a tough week for Nicky Henderson with having to finally call time on attempts to get Sprinter Sacre to Cheltenham to defend his Champion Chase crown. He was always fighting a losing battle and there is no doubt that there is a sense of relief at having made the decision.

He has been outlining plans for the rest of his festival team and it is interesting to read his comments. Obviously the big two are Bobs Worth (Gold Cup) and My Tent Or Yours (Champion Hurdle) but the two that he appears most hopeful about are Oscar Whisky and Dawalan.

Oscar Whisky is a regular visitor to Cheltenham but he has disappointed in the past two World Hurdles. The general consensus is that he did not stay the three miles and Henderson has finally accepted that he is a two and a half mile horse. He has switched to fences this season and has not impressed everyone despite winning three of his four starts.

He was narrowly defeated by Taquin De Seuil in a slowly run race in November but gained revenge on that horse on New Year’s Day. On both occasions he was left to make most of the running, not necessarily ideal for a horse that usually delivered a late run over hurdles. In between those two races he beat Wonderful Charm by half a length in receipt of 8lbs.

His last race seems to have done him more harm than good as far as punters are concerned. The valuable Scilly Isles fell into his lap against just two rivals but it took place on heavy ground and he seemed to make heavy weather of it. My instinct is to ignore that run and base his chances on his previous outings over course and distance on decent ground. At 10-1 with Ladbrokes he looks cracking each-way value.

Dawalan has done enough to run in the Triumph Hurdle but Henderson has always felt that he was not good enough and is an ideal sort for the Fred Winter. He has won his last two races and was also a fair fourth behind Calipto and Activial at Newbury. That form now looks exceptional but he will presumably be weighted accordingly.

The betting for the Fred Winter includes names like Ivan Grozny, Pearl Castle, Plinth and Tiger Roll. Some, if not all of those will be running in the Triumph. I’m happy to take the early 10-1 as he will be shorter when the declarations are made.

Oscar Whisky at 10-1 (JLT Novices Chase) Ladbrokes

Dawalan at 10-1 (Fred Winter) Paddy Power, William Hill

Cheltenham Wednesday Preview

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Cheltenham’s New Year’s Day card is always a good way to clear away any hangovers and there are several Cheltenham hopefuls in action on Wednesday.

The jury is out as to whether or not Oscar Whisky will be as good a chaser as he was a hurdler but he took advantage of a weight concession from Wonderful Charm here last time. He was forced to make his own running for the second consecutive race having done so against Taquin Du Seuil previously.

He lost out on that occasion but it was a highly unsatisfactory race and Barry Geraghty faces a similar dilemma here. It must be frustrating for the race planners to have a card like this attract only seven runners in total for the two feature races. There are only three involved in the two and a half mile hurdle which is also a rematch, this time between Annie Power and Zarkandar.

I am a great fan of Zarkandar and I thought he ran close to his best against The New One considering he was knocked sideways up the straight. He does seem to have lost a bit of toe and it may be that the World Hurdle is the right race for him at the festival in March. He was comprehensively outpaced by Annie Power at Ascot so has a bit to do on the form book.

A better proposition may be Double Ross who cruised into the lead in the December Gold Cup before needing to be bustled along after the last. He is usually up with the pace but found them going a little too quick that day. He likes softer ground and this smaller field may suit him so a 7lb penalty does not seem harsh.

Another horse with proven course form is Return Spring who produced a late thrust to cut down the Paul Nicholls pair Salubrious and Southfield Theatre in November. Neither of those has won since but they have acquitted themselves well and Return Spring was second to Sunnyhillboy on his return visit.

He is up another 4lbs for that run but he is one of the few who will definitely be staying on at the end of the three miles here. The one I fear most is Whispering Gallery who trotted up at Wetherby in a novice hurdle in February on a tight rein and is difficult to assess. He has high class form on the flat and Barry Geraghty could be a significant booking.

Double Ross at 2-1 BetVictor, William Hill

Return Spring at 100-30 Paddy Power, William Hill

Grand National Week 2013 – A Few Early Pointers

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Having spent much of the last week shovelling snow just north of the border, it is hard to believe that they are actually watering the course at Aintree ahead of this week’s Grand National meeting! The entire jumping season to date seems to have been run on soft or heavy ground and it is slightly worrying that we could even have good ground by Thursday. That can sometimes turn the form on its head but you cannot ignore Cheltenham form at this meeting.

The Grand National is obviously the highlight of the week but there is a cracking supporting cast. The Aintree Hurdle is shaping up to be an exceptional race. Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars have battled out the finish for the past two seasons but they are up against stiff opposition this week. Countrywide Flame finished third in the Champion Hurdle with Zarkandar fourth and Grandouet falling when still going well under Barry Geraghty. The final ingredient is supplied by impressive Neptune Novices’ Hurdle winner The New One. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is convinced that his horse will be a leading Champion Hurdle contender next year and he has been made favourite to win here.

I have been a fan of Countrywide Flame for some time and I thought he put in a great effort behind Hurricane Fly last time. As much as I respect the opposition, I think odds of around 5-1 are an insult to John Quinn’s gelding and I fancy him to gain a well deserved success.

Sprinter Sacre is due to run over 2 1/2 miles in the Melling Chase and is up against two smart performers in Cue Card and Flemenstar. I don’t have any doubts about Sprinter Sacre proving equally effective over this distance but his odds reflect his superiority over his rivals. Unless the bookies offer some generous odds on winning distances later in the week, I think this will be a race to watch rather than bet on.

One of the banker bets of the meeting must surely be Silviniaco Conti after his desperately unlucky fall in the Gold Cup. Ruby Walsh found the seven-year-old travelling almost too well throughout the race and he must surely have given Bobs Worth something to think about if he had stood up. He flew around the Mildmay Course last season and The Betfred Bowl looks his for the taking.

Big priced winners of The Lincoln and The Irish National are timely reminders of what we could be up against when betting on the big race on Saturday. On His Own looks likely to go off favourite having won over hurdles on his only start since falling last year. Having watched the re-run of last year’s race, there is no denying that he appeared to be going as well as anything when he crashed out at Bechers second time around. My only slight worry was that he seemed to get some way behind early on. He probably wouldn’t want the ground to dry out too much but is a worthy favourite and I’m taking him to give the punters something to cheer about.

I have plenty of respect for Sunnyhillboy, Seabass and Cappa Bleu (2nd, 3rd and 4th) but they all seem to be high enough in the weights. I was most impressed with Imperial Commander’s comeback run in the Argento Chase and it must have been incredibly frustrating for connections to miss out on his run in the Gold Cup. He adds a touch of class to the race whilst Always Waining looks overpriced at 40-1 for a horse that runs a stone better at Liverpool than anywhere else. Trainer Peter Bowen is keeping an eye on the weather and could yet send him for the Topham but most bookmakers are now offering NR/no bet on the National.

Countrywide Flame 5-1 with Paddy Power
Silviniaco Conti Evens with Paddy Power
On His Own 7-1 with Bet365
Always Waining 40-1 with Paddy Power