Oaks Ante-Post Preview Update

Last week I recommended taking the 4-1 about Secret Gesture for the Epsom Oaks and she is now down to 5-2 favourite. The form of her runaway win in the Lingfield Oaks Trial is nothing to write home about but it was the manner of her victory that caught the eye. She looked happy at every stage of the race, responded to a shake of the reins and could have quickened up again if it had been necessary. There may not be that much of her but there is nothing wrong with her engine and she looks like being an outstanding filly.

Aidan O’Brien’s 1000 Guineas third Moth has been displaced as favourite and could possibly line up in the Irish Guineas this weekend. That would surely rule her out of contention for the Oaks but it is never a good idea to try and second-guess what trainers are planning to do. The same applies to Snow Queen who ran on well at Newmarket with the stable also having Cork winner Say entered for Epsom. A case could be made for all three but I’m happy to pass them over until running plans are confirmed.

Liber Nauticus ground out a victory in the Musidora Stakes last week but it was more of a workmanlike display than anything spectacular. I am surprised to find her as short as 7-2 as my first reaction was that she would be pushed out to 5 or 6-1 for Epsom. Sir Michael Stoute provided this column with a nice treble the following day so it is not easy to overlook anything he sends out at the moment. She looked the sort of filly that could go on to win a race like the Park Hill and I think she may meet a couple with a bit more toe at Epsom.

One runner that I was tempted to include as an each-way selection was Cheshire Oaks winner Banoffee. She is to be supplemented for the race after overcoming a slow start to sluice up the rail and pick off the leaders at Chester. She looked a little bit too keen in the early stages, although this could have been down to it being her first start of the season, but I’m just a little concerned about how she will settle in the Oaks. I wouldn’t put anyone off her at 10-1 but I’m not entirely convinced about her over this trip.

Secret Gesture will be joined by her stable companion Talent, winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket. Madame Defarge ran on into third that day but there seems no obvious reason for her to reverse the placings. The French raider Planete Bleue is an unknown quantity and runs in the famous colours of Daniel Wildenstein. Unfortunately I have not yet been able to see any “visual clues” as to how good she is but the fact that she is available at 50-1 suggests that she is no world-beater. At the moment, everything points to a victory for Secret Gesture.

Secret Gesture 5-2 Paddy Power

York Dante Meeting Day 1 Preview May 15th

York’s Dante meeting provides the last real chance for anything to emerge to challenge Dawn Approach in the ante-post market for the Epsom Derby. Aidan O’Brien has been busily mopping up the Derby trials over the past couple of weeks and currently has six possible runners headed by Battle Of Marengo. He saddles Indian Chief for the Dante on Wednesday where he is set to clash with Greatwood and Windhoek.

Sir Michael Stoute’s intended Dante runner Telescope has been forced to miss the race due to a minor infection and connections hope that he will still make it to Epsom. Bookmakers are offering him at 6-1 with a run. The Oaks chances of Telescope’s stable companion Liber Nauticus are put to the test on the opening day of the meeting when she lines up for the Musidora Stakes. The Azamour filly didn’t really know what it was all about on her only run as a two-year-old but responded well to pressure to win her maiden at Goodwood.

Her inexperience would usually be a cause for concern in stepping up to this grade but this does not look the strongest renewal. In fact, her main market rival also has only one race under her belt, a win on the all-weather at Wolverhampton. Woodland Aria quickened up well that day but is freely available at 25-1 for the Oaks, suggesting that the stable are not expecting great things from her.

I was most impressed with Secret Gesture at Lingfield on Saturday. Ladbrokes went 6-1 after the race but that quickly disappeared and the best price now is 4-1 with Sporting Bet. I would be very surprised if anything puts in a better display than that before Epsom and believe that she would be 7-4 if she was trained at one of the bigger yards. It could be argued that the opposition did not amount to much but she could have won by 20 lengths if she had been asked to do so and I think there is still some value left at 4’s.

Tuesday’s other feature race is the Duke of York Stakes with top sprinters Mince and Tickled Pink expected to fight out the finish over six furlongs. They have plenty of opposition, most notably from Society Rock and Hawkeyethenoo. I thought that the latter shaped very encouragingly first time out and will improve on that effort and could be worth each-way support at 16-1.

The meeting opens with a tricky looking handicap but I’m interested in Prompter who switches back to the flat after competing in hurdle races for Jonjo O’Neill. He won at Bangor-on-Dee with his head in his chest before being beaten at odds-on at Worcester recently. He was useful on the flat for Michael Bell and ran a good race here when close up behind Crackentorp. Ryan Moore has been booked and that could be significant. The 12-1 on offer with William Hill looks worth taking.

In the 2.15 Nocturn goes for a quick hat-trick after two victories at Windsor. He hung badly left-handed last time under Graham Lee but a good draw in three should enable him to grab the far rail. If he settles well he could be up to defying a 6lb penalty and it is worth taking the risk at odds of around 7-1.

Secret Gesture 4-1 Oaks Sportingbet
Prompter 12-1 (each-way) William Hill
Nocturn 7-1 Ladbrokes
Hawkeyethenoo 16-1 (each-way) Ladbrokes