Tag: Moth

Epsom Ante-Post Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The latest news on the Derby is that Magician is thought to be unlikely to take part in Saturday’s classic. If this is confirmed on Friday, it is unlikely to have too much of an impact on the market with bookmakers having been offering NR/No Bet this week.

The attention of the media seems to have been side-tracked by the saga of whether or not Frankie Dettori will be allowed to ride in the race following his drugs ban. Personally I would much rather concentrate on the horses. I have advised interest in the French and German raiders, Ocovango and Chopin at 9-1 and 12-1 respectively. I don’t see any value in backing the favourite at around even money given his stamina concerns and none of the other runners have really impressed me. However, both horses would appreciate a little bit of cut so I may be forced to do a rain dance later in the week!

The market for the Oaks is also unchanged after eleven horses were declared for Friday’s race. Secret Gesture (4-1) has been my selection here since she bolted up in the Lingfield Oaks trial. Moth and Liber Nauticus are challenging her in the betting but I just think she will have more gears than they do. I’ve also taken an each-way interest in The Lark (33-1), a half-sister to 2009 Oaks winner Sariska and open to plenty of improvement.

The bookmakers have now started pricing up the other races at the meeting and there are a couple in the handicaps that could be worth supporting. The first is Ralph Beckett’s progressive handicapper Niceofyoutotellme. I am not usually a fan of form from the polytrack but the style of his victory at Kempton suggests that there is a lot more to come from this son of Hernando. He was always travelling easily and picked up very well to cut down the field and win by a head. He is racing off only a 5lb higher mark on Friday and stands out in an otherwise moderate field.

My second selection is more speculative but has some sound reasoning behind it. You could hardly have a more difficult race to unravel than the Epsom Dash on Saturday but I think La Fortunata is overpriced at 20-1. The mare looked certain to win over course and distance last month only to be caught in the very last stride by Ajjaadd. Early speed is essential in this race above all others and she loves to bowl along in front. Her Epsom form reads 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 2nd. By my reckoning that makes her a fair each-way bet at 20-1.

Friday – Niceofyoutotellme 11-2 Paddy Power
Saturday – La Fortunata 20-1 Bet365

Oaks Ante-Post Preview Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Last week I recommended taking the 4-1 about Secret Gesture for the Epsom Oaks and she is now down to 5-2 favourite. The form of her runaway win in the Lingfield Oaks Trial is nothing to write home about but it was the manner of her victory that caught the eye. She looked happy at every stage of the race, responded to a shake of the reins and could have quickened up again if it had been necessary. There may not be that much of her but there is nothing wrong with her engine and she looks like being an outstanding filly.

Aidan O’Brien’s 1000 Guineas third Moth has been displaced as favourite and could possibly line up in the Irish Guineas this weekend. That would surely rule her out of contention for the Oaks but it is never a good idea to try and second-guess what trainers are planning to do. The same applies to Snow Queen who ran on well at Newmarket with the stable also having Cork winner Say entered for Epsom. A case could be made for all three but I’m happy to pass them over until running plans are confirmed.

Liber Nauticus ground out a victory in the Musidora Stakes last week but it was more of a workmanlike display than anything spectacular. I am surprised to find her as short as 7-2 as my first reaction was that she would be pushed out to 5 or 6-1 for Epsom. Sir Michael Stoute provided this column with a nice treble the following day so it is not easy to overlook anything he sends out at the moment. She looked the sort of filly that could go on to win a race like the Park Hill and I think she may meet a couple with a bit more toe at Epsom.

One runner that I was tempted to include as an each-way selection was Cheshire Oaks winner Banoffee. She is to be supplemented for the race after overcoming a slow start to sluice up the rail and pick off the leaders at Chester. She looked a little bit too keen in the early stages, although this could have been down to it being her first start of the season, but I’m just a little concerned about how she will settle in the Oaks. I wouldn’t put anyone off her at 10-1 but I’m not entirely convinced about her over this trip.

Secret Gesture will be joined by her stable companion Talent, winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket. Madame Defarge ran on into third that day but there seems no obvious reason for her to reverse the placings. The French raider Planete Bleue is an unknown quantity and runs in the famous colours of Daniel Wildenstein. Unfortunately I have not yet been able to see any “visual clues” as to how good she is but the fact that she is available at 50-1 suggests that she is no world-beater. At the moment, everything points to a victory for Secret Gesture.

Secret Gesture 5-2 Paddy Power

Haydock And Curragh Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

This weekend’s racing at Haydock features two top quality betting races in the Temple Stakes and the Betfred Silver Bowl. Over at the Curragh there is classic action with the Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday and the 1000 Guineas on Sunday.

Last year’s Temple Stakes was won in a course record time by Roger Charlton’s Bated Breath from the fast finishing Sole Power. The latter is hoping to go one place better this year after winning impressively at Newmarket last time out. Not surprisingly he has been put up the 7-2 ante-post favourite and he is expected to be hard to beat. His latest victory followed two solid efforts at Meydan. He had several of Saturday’s rivals behind him at Newmarket including the Robert Cowell-trained pair Kingsgate Native (2nd) and Spirit Quartz (5th). There did not seem to be any real excuse for either that day although Spirit Quartz may have been slightly inconvenienced by the draw.

The Silver Bowl has been won by some cracking good three-year-olds down the years and another strong field is set to turn out this weekend. Whatever the result on Saturday, this race is usually a good guide to the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot and the form is always worth following. The one to be on early in the week here is Andrew Balding’s Here Comes When who did us a favour when winning at Chester recently. He beat Breton Rock with a little up his sleeve and can beat the same horse on only 2lb worse terms. Richard Hannon’s Baltic Knight could be a danger if allowed to take his chance after chasing home the smart Dundonnell last Saturday. He beat Here Comes When at Newbury by a neck and is 7lb better off at the weights.

The Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday looks wide open with several of the also-rans from the Newmarket Guineas set to turn out again. It will be interesting to see how the form of those beaten so convincingly by Dawn Approach stands up. With Aidan O’Brien having eight of the nineteen runners it is unwise to have a bet until running plans are made known.

O’Brien has also thrown a spanner in the works for the 1000 Guineas on Sunday by declaring one-time Oaks favourite Moth. However, I am prepared to stick with the Charlie Hills-trained Just The Judge to gain compensation. She looked to have done everything right at Newmarket and was unlucky to be run out of it close home. The Guineas form is not always confirmed at the Curragh but I’m prepared to take a chance at the opening quote of 100-30. Those odds can only shorten if Moth is diverted to Epsom.

Sole Power 7-2 Skybet
Here Comes When 7-1 Bet365
Just The Judge 100-30 Bet Victor