Tag: Northumberland Plate

Newcastle Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The withdrawal of Pique Sous from the Northumberland Plate has at least given us a bit of value with our 10-1 about Angel Gabrial. He now looks set to start at about half those odds but it’s a very tough race and we can only hope that he gets luck in running.

George Chaloner has the task of delivering him as late as possible. I have mixed feelings about the number 1 stall as it is better than being stuck out wide. My only concern is that he gets shuffled back early on.

Oriental Fox was desperately unlucky not to win this last year when collared on the line by Tominator. I like horses returning for a race that they have run well in previously but the weight puts me off despite his sixth in the Gold Cup. Suegioo and Nearly Caught are other interesting runners but I’m not keen to get involved further in such a tricky race.

The best bet on the card is You’re Fired for Karl Burke in the closing handicap. He ran on strongly over six furlongs at Doncaster in March and then won over seven furlongs at Haydock. He got himself trapped on the rail behind horses that day but managed to come around the field and get up close home. He is up 6lbs but has an extra furlong to travel and has scope for further improvement.

The William Haggas stable remains in fantastic form and he has two exciting prospects tomorrow. Muthmir has his first start as a four-year-old in the sprint handicap and the vibes are encouraging. He showed plenty of dash last season before disappointing on his final start but he could be better than his rating of 87. His rivals are mostly exposed so it is worth taking a chance on his potential.

Saayerr was a speedy juvenile and he can take the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes to complete the Haggas double. His fourth place in the Free Handicap over seven furlongs reads well with the winner having run well in both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas. Saayerr has always looked more of a sprinter so the drop back to six should see him return to winning ways.

Muthmir 2.05 at 7-2 Bet365

Saayerr 2.40 at 3-1 Bet365, BetVictor

Angel Gabrial 3.50 at 10-1* ante-post

You’re Fired 5.00 at 9-4 BetVictor, Paddy Power

Northumberland Plate Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Pitmen’s Derby is the highlight of Newcastle’s card on Saturday. This race is one of the top staying handicaps of the season and usually attracts runners from the Chester Cup and Royal Ascot. This year looks like being no exception with the early market leaders being Ascot winner Pique Sous and Chester Cup 1-2, Suegioo and Angel Gabrial.

Pique Sous landed a gamble on the Queen Alexandra Race, the closing event of Royal Ascot week. The grey gets a 5lbs penalty for his comfortable win there but this race comes only a fortnight after the two and three-quarter mile marathon.

Trainer Willie Mullins also has top weight Simenon entered but I think it may be a tall order for last year’s Gold Cup runner-up. Simenon has travelled the globe since that race but hinted at a return to form when fifth to Leading Light. I’d rather see him put away for another tilt at the Melbourne Cup in November.

The one that interests me is Angel Gabrial, trained by Richard Fahey. The five-year-old hit form at Ripon in April when beating the well-backed Mubaraza. He benefitted from a change of tactics that day, being held up at the rear of the field before rushing through in the closing stages. He displayed a tendency to hang when hitting the front which ought to have alerted connections ahead of the Chester Cup in May.

Jamie Spencer took over from David Nolan for the big race and he was well supported in to 7-1. After being held up at the rear, Spencer made a rapid move through the field and swept to the front well over a furlong from home. Whether or not the horse surprised him with his acceleration I am not sure, but was left as a sitting duck in the home straight.

It was Suegioo in the same colours of Dr Marwan Koukash that emerged as the late challenger and Angel Gabrial hung across to his rival, forfeiting further ground. He went under by just half a length and is 1lb better off with the winner. My feeling is that he would definitely have won had his run been delayed and I am expecting exaggerated waiting tactics on Saturday.

With sixty horses still entered, it is too early to study the rest of the field in depth but Angel Gabrial makes plenty of appeal at 10-1 each-way.

Angel Gabrial at 10-1 BetVictor, Ladbrokes

Northumberland Plate Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Horses that run well at Royal Ascot are often an automatic choice for punters in the following weeks. It is true that they were competing at the best quality flat racing meeting of the year but that does not necessarily mean they will be successful next time out.

Bookmakers price these horses up shorter because they know they are going to be popular. In other words, their Ascot form is built into their price so value can be hard to find. Another factor to consider is whether or not they have had a hard race and how quickly will they recover?

Tiger Cliff was well touted for the Ascot Stakes last week and received extra coverage as everyone was hoping to see Lady Cecil’s horse win. Sent off the 4-1 favourite, he was held up towards the rear by Tom Queally and ran on strongly up the straight to finish second to Well Sharp. The jockey has since come in for plenty of criticism for giving his mount too much to do but it is debatable whether he could have beaten the winner.

He is now set to renew rivalry with Lieutenant Miller (3rd), Mubaraza (4th) and Blue Bajan (6th) on the virtually the same weights in Saturday’s Northumberland Plate. On the face of it he would he should come out on top. It is worth remembering that the Plate is half a mile shorter but it is difficult to see how that might benefit any of those that were behind him at Ascot.

Tiger Cliff is a top-priced 9-2 on Saturday and could even be shorter when the 48 hour declarations are made. Second favourite is Montaser, an impressive winner at York last time and raised 5lbs for the length that be beat Clive Brittain’s Quixote. He was progressive last season with his only poor run coming in the Cesarewitch when virtually pulled up. The softer ground was blamed for that effort and he is expected to improve for his seasonal debut. He has won over this trip at Ascot last season but is now on a stone higher mark.

Richard Fahey had his team in fine form at Ascot, saddling four seconds. He has had this race in mind for his Chester Cup duo of Address Unknown and Ingleby Spirit for some time. I felt that Address Unknown was a shade fortunate to win at Chester whilst several of his rivals met trouble in running. Ingleby Spirit was ridden by 5lb claimer George Chaloner that day and may well have won in another few strides.

Tominator was also going on at the finish at Chester and now represents Well Sharp’s trainer Jonjo O’Neill. He won this race back in 2011 for the late Reg Hollinshead but is now on a 12lbs higher mark and a career high of 102. Last year’s winner Ile de Re is another that appears to have been handicapped to the hilt whilst David Lanigan’s Biographer will need some give in the ground if he is to take part. He was a springer in the Ascot Gold Cup market last week but his trainer elected to pull him out due to the fast ground.

The shape of the race will become clearer on Thursday but Ingleby Spirit rates the logical choice at this stage at 16-1. Although Montaser quickened past Quixote impressively at York, the disparity in their prices is insulting to Clive Brittain’s gelding who had previously run well in defeat at Sandown. He can also be supported at 40-1.

Ingleby Spirit 16-1 Coral

Quixote 40-1 Bet365