Tag: Meydan

UAE Derby Preview

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There is a strong supporting card for the Dubai World Cup this year and one horse that I am really looking forward to seeing is Long John. He takes his chance in the UAE Derby having already bolted up in the UAE 2000 Guineas recently.

He ran in the colours of Sheikh Mohammed last year in Australia but is now in the blue of Godolphin as he attempts to make a name for himself in Europe this season. If his first run for Charlie Appleby is anything to go by, he is certainly an exciting prospect for races of a mile and beyond.

The son of Street Cry stormed clear to slam Emirates Flyer by four and a half lengths. He won the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas over a mile in Australia but finished down the field in the Cox Plate on his final start. He has a reputation for being particularly lazy at home and Appleby was warned not to expect too much. Whatever his attitude is at home, there was no doubting the manner of his victory last time and I am in no hurry to oppose the gelding.

However, he does have a serious rival here in Aidan O’Brien’s Giovanni Boldini. He looked destined to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf when Ryan Moore drove him ahead at Santa Anita but he was foiled by a late dash from Godolphin’s Outstrip. The winner is very useful and ties in closely with Toormore who is among the 2000 Guineas favourites at Newmarket.

Toormore had Giovanni Boldini back in third place in the National Stakes at the Curragh earlier in the season but there is little doubt that he improved at the Breeders’ Cup. He holds some classic entries and must be feared despite being low on O’Brien’s batting order for the Newmarket Guineas.

Asmar trounced Emirates Flyer by six lengths in a Listed race here, breaking his maiden in the process. If Emirates Flyer gave his true running, Asmar must also be in with a shot. It isn’t often that you see a colt go from a median auction at Wolverhampton to taking on classic colts but that is the case with Jamie Osborne’s Toast Of New York. It is true that he has won his last two starts by an aggregate of 28 lengths but this still looks a huge step up in class.

Safety Check disappointed me last time and appeared not to get home while Sir John Hawkins and Jallota have had plenty of chances.

Long John UAE Derby at 9-4 Betfair SB

Dubai World Cup Preview

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The Dubai World Cup at Meydan on March 29th gives us an early chance to see some of the star names in action. Last year’s Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World makes his return to action in a fascinating clash with The Fugue and several other International stars.

Ruler Of The World has not won since Epsom and the form of the classic suggested it was one of the worst in living memory. However, the colt did finish off his season by running third in the Champion Stakes and has to be respected.

John Gosden’s The Fugue was runner-up in both of her last two races, the Breeders’ Cup Turf and the Hong Kong Vase. It was a frustrating end to the season for the mare after Group 1 victories in  the Yorkshire Oaks and Irish Champion Stakes.

Jockey William Buick was devastated when Ryan Moore swooped on Magician to beat The Fugue at Santa Anita but he should have several opportunities for further glory on the mare this season. I think she has the tactical speed to beat Ruler Of The World but I am more concerned about Hong Kong Gold Cup winner Military Attack. He had The Fugue’s Hong Kong conqueror Dominant three lengths away in third last month and arrives here fit and fancied.

The card also sees the return of Dank in the Dubai Duty Free. She had a fantastic season last year for Sir Michael Stoute, chalking up Grade 1 victories in the Beverly D Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. The big danger to her is the Japanese-trained Just A Way. He defeated two-time Japan Cup winner Gentildonna at Tokyo in October and a repeat of that form would make him very difficult to beat.

Magician is also back in action in the Sheema Classic over a mile and a half. He won the ten furlong Dee Stakes at Chester before winning the Irish 2000 Guineas over a mile. His only poor run came in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot but he bounced back in style to beat The Fugue at Santa Anita.  He has Cirrus Des Aigles and Gentildonna to beat here in a race that looks every bit as good as the World Cup on paper.

Ryan Moore rode Gentildonna to her famous Japan Cup victory in November so he knows what he is up against. Magician looked a quality colt last year and can take this on his way to a successful season in Europe.

The Fugue (Dubai World Cup) at 6-1 SkyBet

Magician (Sheema Classic) at 4-1 Sportingbet

Dank (Dubai Duty Free) at 5-1 Coral

UAE Oaks Preview

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It’s another Thursday at Meydan and the previous meetings have been quite kind to us. Ihtimal is the star performer on show as she aims to follow up her UAE 1000 Guineas victory in the UAE Oaks.

Regular followers of this column will know that Ihtimal has provided us with some profitable days already in her short career and we’re already on for the Guineas this summer. It was no surprise to see her outclass her rivals at Meydan but it’s always good to see that a filly has trained on.

Saeed bin Suroor had no hesitation in naming Ihtimal as his best classic filly and she steps up to nine furlongs tomorrow for the first time. She finishes her races so strongly that you can easily see her staying the Oaks trip.

There seems no reason why any of those that finished behind her last time should get any closer. Mensoora, Feedyah and Magrooma were all well held and I’d be very confident of a similar result tomorrow.

It will be interesting to see how Wednaan runs in the previous race after his promising third behind Long John. The winner was very impressive that day but Wednaan was having only his second race after winning at Yarmouth as a two-year-old and can step up on that performance here.

Most of the attention is focussed on the up-coming Cheltenham festival and the weights were published today for the eleven handicaps. There are more than 1,000 entries so that is going to take a good few hours to unravel!

Medinas gave me a thrilling 40-1 win in the Coral Cup last year but won’t be going for a repeat after being allocated 11st 12lb. He’s only the size of a pony and Alan King quickly decided that he may as well hunt round in the World Hurdle and see if he can pick up some place money.

The early “talking horses” are the JP McManus pair of Regal Encore and Pendra. Regal Encore looks as though he will be going for the Imperial Cup to try and get a penalty to get in at the festival. His defeat at Plumpton looks better in view of the winner’s subsequent victory at Haydock but I cannot believe Bet365 are offering only 7-2 about him for the Martin Pipe Hurdle.

Charlie Longsdon has named Pendra as his best chance of the meeting and announced that he had “protected his handicap mark”. Not surprisingly he is now among the favourites for the novices handicap on the opening day but he’s not one for me.

Ihtimal

Wednaan

Meydan Thursday Preview

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There is another top class card at Meydan on Thursday with the Group 2 Balanchine Stakes at 5.35 seeing the second appearance of the season of Certify.

The classy filly was a leading two-year-old and went into the winter among the favourites for the 1000 Guineas. Unfortunately events off the track led to her being banned from racing as a three-year-old and she did not reappear until the Group 2 Cape Verdi over a mile last month.

All of the old sparkle seemed to be there as she L’Amour De Ma Vie, Pearl Of Africa and the very disappointing French filly Flotilla. There seems no reason why any of those should trouble Certify tomorrow, although Flotilla’s run was too bad to be true.

A more likely threat may come from David Simcock’s Moment In Time. The mare is a regular performer at Group 1 level and ran well in the E P Taylor at Woodbine in October. If she is fit enough to do herself justice, she could shake up the favourite.

There are some interesting names lining up for the handicap at 5.00 including the formerly smart juvenile Red Duke. He returned to winning ways last time out for Mick De Kock who also runs Specific Gravity and Alexandra Palace. The latter has only been raised 3lb for his recent victory and should run well. Solar Deity was noted staying on strongly that day and has an extra two furlongs to travel tomorrow.

The favourite is Cat O’Mountain who is unbeaten in five starts on the all-weather. He has to contend with a whopping 13lb and that looks prohibitive. Steeler was third in the 2012 Racing Post Trophy and has not been discredited in two Group 2 races here. Preference is just for Alexandra Palace at the current odds.

The Dubai Millennium Listed Stakes can go to Tasaday who finished runner-up in the Prix De L’Opera at Longchamp last season. She made no show behind Mujaarib, eventually finishing ninth, but is worth another chance on this surface. Dastarhon stayed on well in fourth in the same race and should also be competitive.

Alexandra Palace at 15-1 BetVictor (5.00)

Certify at 8-13 SkyBet (5.35)

Tasaday at 4-1 BetVictor (6.10)

UAE 2000 Guineas Preview

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The racing at Meydan has been a welcome ray of sunshine amongst the gloom and doom of the British winter. With the news relaying stories of the Thames floods and hurricane force winds, it is easy to see why Dubai makes plenty of appeal! The results have also been kind to this column with three wins out of four including Ihtimal’s scintillating display last week.

The colts go on show tomorrow for the UAE 2000 Guineas. On the face of it, this will have little or no bearing on the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket but there is an interesting mix of international performers taking part. Saeed bin Suroor has won this race four times already and is represented by Emirates Flyer and Paximadia.

Emirates Flyer was a winning tip for us last time out, holding off the late run of Safety Check. Five previous trial winners have gone on to win the race proper so it would hardly be a surprise to see Emirates Flyer run well. I liked his game effort in the Redcar Two-year-old Trophy last season and he’s sure to keep plugging away.

Paximadia is a Group Two winner in Australia and has reportedly been pleasing connections but it is Charlie Appleby’s Safety Check that I like for tomorrow’s race. He was a big strong two-year-old and has obviously trained on judged by his run in the trial. He was spotted going easily two furlongs out on the inside but couldn’t quite get to the winner. He’s got a good draw on the inside and is expected to appreciate the step up in distance.

His stable companion Long John could be the main threat. Appleby says that the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas winner shows nothing at home so they are really in the dark going into the race. Apparently he was the same in Australia but still produced the goods on race day.

If untangling the Godolphin runners is tough, then working through the Mike De Kock team is impossible! He has won this five times and has four runners tomorrow. Christophe Soumillon presumably had the pick and has chosen Warwick winner Wednaan. The concern about him is that he was sick when arriving over in Dubai so missed the trial. He could be one to watch for another day.

Nezar and Jallota are more familiar names that help to remind us of warmer days! Nezar was a promising youngster and landed some confident bets at Chester in a nursery before struggling in a higher grade. Jallota competed in a stack of top two-year-old races for Mick Channon last year and is a quality colt. I’m just hopeful that Safety Check can confirm the promise of that trial run.

Safety Check at 12-1 Bet365

Ihtimal value at 16-1 for 1000 Guineas

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Early February may seem an odd time to be talking about the first classics of the new turf season but Ihtimal has already laid down her marker for the 1000 Guineas. The Godolphin filly was a smart two-year-old who improved with every race and she has clearly trained on.

On Thursday, she reappeared in the UAE 1000 Guineas at Meydan and produced a devastating turn of foot to leave her rivals floundering. Her victims included a couple of decent four-year-olds and the smart Wedding Ring, also in the blue of Godolphin.

I first started following Ihtimal after she finished fourth to Berkshire at Royal Ascot in the summer. As soon as she stepped up to seven furlongs she began to fulfil her potential, winning the Sweet Solera at Newmarket and then following up in brilliant fashion at Doncaster in the May Hill. That race is nearly always a good guide to the classics and she certainly looked the part that day.

She was beaten on her final start of the season but I’m convinced that it was down to over-confidence on the part of her rider. Silvestre De Sousa may have overdone the waiting tactics a little and she quickened without ever getting to grips with Chriselliam or Rizeena. That was the best fillies’ race of the season in my book and I’m surprised to see the likes of Miss France, Lucky Kristale and Tapestry ahead of Ihtimal in the betting.

Tragically, Chriselliam has had to put down this week following a foot infection. She put up a brilliant performance to win the Breeders Cup in scintillating style and would have been a leading contender at Newmarket. I would imagine Clive Brittain go straight to the Guineas with Rizeena unless he decides to run in the Nell Gwynn but Ihtimal has the UAE Oaks next on her agenda.

Godolphin’s trial winners do not always go on to run well in the Guineas but it is telling that Saeed bin Suroor has already described Ihtimal as the best of his fillies. Coral are still offering a very tempting 16-1 about her for the 1000 Guineas. She could well stay the Oaks trip as well and I don’t think the 20-1 will last long if she puts in a similar display next time.

1000 Guineas Ihtimal at 16-1 Coral, Boylesports

Oaks Ihtimal 20-1 Bet365, Totesport