Tag: Longchamp

French 1000 Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Ervedya had originally been aimed at the Newmarket 1000 Guineas but the Aga Khan’s filly was re-routed to Longchamp in search of softer ground. The move looks likely to pay off with good to soft conditions prevailing on Sunday as she bids to win the French equivalent for His Highness The Aga Khan.

The daughter of Siyouni has won four of her six starts and was a top class two-year-old.  She won her first three races including a Group 3 at Deauville before finishing third to The Wow Signal in the Group 1 Prix Morny.

She then finished runner-up to Found in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac but connections are convinced that she would have been closer but for her wide draw. She was on the outside of the twelve-runner field and had to be chased up by Christophe Soumillon to get a good position. The effort may have taken its toll in the closing stages as she finished two and a half lengths adrift of the O’Brien filly.

Ironically, she has drawn exactly the same stall on Sunday although she does have two horses on her outside. She made her seasonal debut in very soft ground at Maisons-Laffitte in April where she beat Ameenah by a length and three-quarters. The runner-up is well drawn in stall five so has place claims but it is difficult to see her reversing the form with the favourite.

Andre Fabre is represented by Mexican Gold and Soft Drink. The former looks much the more dangerous of the pair and is a by Medaglia d’Oro out of a Gone West mare. She is unbeaten after two races including a Group 3 at Longchamp and breaks from stall nine.

Sainte Amarante has won her last two starts including a Listed race at Saint-cloud while Fontanelice was seven lengths behind Ervedya in April. She was also behind Mexican Gold when fourth last time out, doing all of her best work in the closing stages. Connections of the favourite would obviously feel happier if she were drawn in a single figure barrier but Soumillon’s experience should hold him in good stead.

The British and Irish challenge has surprisingly evaporated with Irish Rookie and Royal Razalma looking unlikely to feature here.

Ervedya @15-8 William Hill

French 2000 Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Aidan O’Brien saddled Gleneagles to win the English 2000 Guineas and attempts to add the French equivalent on Sunday at Longchamp with Highland Reel.

Highland Reel was a late switch to Paris having been as short as 8-1 in the ante-post betting at Newmarket. He won his maiden by 12 lengths at Gowran Park to earn a tilt at the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. Joseph O’Brien was in the saddle that day and he beat Tupi convincingly despite pulling hard in the early stages of the race. Ryan Moore takes over on Sunday and looks sure to play a leading role from stall 7.

Stable companion War Envoy would not be out of it if he can reproduce his fine run in the Grand Criterium in October. He was only a length behind Gleneagles that day in fifth place and the race also included Guineas runner-up Territories. However, he has not shown that level of form since and was soundly beaten behind Kool Kompany in a modest looking renewal of the Craven Stakes.

Charles Hills will have been left frustrated after Greenham Stakes winner Muhaarar was drawn in stall 18. He beat subsequent Guineas flop Estidhkaar at Newbury, although third home Ivawood ran creditably to sneak into the frame in the colts’ classic.

Frankie Dettori partners Karar in the colours of Al Shaqab racing, a six lengths maiden winner before finishing second to Territories here last month. That form has been boosted by the winner’s subsequent run at Newmarket and Karar has plenty of scope for improvement.

Andre Fabre is responsible for Territories and he saddles Make Believe and New Bay here. The latter is lightly raced but looks to have been given a tough task from stall 16.  Make Believe is by 2000 Guineas winner Mafki out of a mare by Suave Dancer and ran a sound race on his reappearance in the Prix Djebel.

He travelled comfortably just behind the lead for most of the race and was just beaten on the nod by Ride Like The Wind. That horse disappointed at Newmarket but Make Believe left the clear impression that he would come on a lot for the race. Olivier Peslier is ideally situated in stall four and should be able to get a nice lead before going for home at the furlong pole.

Make Believe @9-2 Betfair

Arc de Triomphe Preview

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The Group 1 Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp is the big International race this weekend with a field of 20 set to go to post.

Many of the big names are missing including Derby winner Australia but there is a string of classic winners and Group 1 performers lining up. Taghrooda is almost favourite by default and there is a feeling that she may have peaked in mid-summer with her convincing King George win. That followed a comfortable success in the Epsom Oaks but she wasn’t her usual self when beaten by Tapestry in the Yorkshire Oaks.

Gosden will be hoping that the forecast for good ground is correct as the going has often turned soft at Longchamp in recent Arcs. That wouldn’t suit Taghrooda who has shown all of her form on good ground.

Prix Niel winner Ectot seems to be carrying plenty of confidence after winning on his first start for five months. If you are on at 50-1 that’s great but I wouldn’t be tempted at a miserly 6-1. I like French Oaks winner Avenir Certain who was an easy winner at Deauville last time out but this will be her first race at a mile and a half. Her dam did not really stay beyond seven furlongs and that just puts me off, especially if she is to be held up in such a big field.

I can’t have Treve at any price after a couple of mulish performances and I don’t believe that Ruler Of The World is any better than last year when seventh in the Arc de Triomphe. Frankie Dettori had things his own way in the Trial but this looks a lot tougher.

Surprisingly, the Japanese are yet to win this race but they have three fancied runners. I’m going to side with two of them. Just A Way was breath-taking when winning at Dubai in the spring and has had one warm-up race over a mile in soft ground. Connections admit that he is at his best over a mile and a quarter but he would certainly have stayed another couple of furlongs at Meydan.

Harp Star beat Gold Ship last time out and should defeat the grey again here. She was runner-up in the Japanese Oaks in May when she was given a ridiculous amount of ground to make up in the straight. I am worried about the tactics with her but hopefully they will keep her closer to the pace. The draw is always fascinating for the Arc and that could change the picture but I’m siding with the Japanese duo at the current prices.

Just A Way @7-1 Bet365

Harp Star @8-1 Bet365

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3 (non-runner no bet applies)