Kentucky Derby Preview

The Kentucky Derby is probably the most eagerly awaited race of the season in the United States. The first leg of the American Triple Crown could see a new star emerge and it is Bob Baffert who holds the aces with both first and second favourite.

American Pharoah was made hot favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last season only to miss the race through injury. He was an impressive winner of the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes in September and the third horse, Texas Red, went on to take the glory at Santa Anita.

He reappeared at Oaklawn in March and swept to an easy six and a quarter length victory followed by an effortless win in the Arkansas Derby. His stable companion Dortmund is an enormous colt by Big Brown and is unbeaten after six races. He got the better of Firing Line by a head in December and repeated the performance in the Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes. He made all to win by four and a quarter lengths last time in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and it will be interesting to see how he handles this big field.

Todd Pletcher runs three here with Breeders’ Cup runner-up Carpe Diem looking the most likely. He has won both of his races this season impressively, winning the Blue Grass Stakes by three lengths last time out. Stable companion Materiality is unbeaten after three races and showed good form to beat Upstart in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

Firing Line won the Group 3 Sunland Derby last time out, a thoroughly deserved success after two fine tussles with the mighty Dortmund. He is priced at 12-1 under Gary Stevens while Baffert’s horse is around 7-2 so there could be some each-way value there.

Backing Meydan form here is something of a risk but Mick de Kock’s Mubtaahij could also be worth supporting at decent odds. The son of Dubawi was unlucky to be beaten in the UAE 2000 Guineas but made no mistake last time when bolting clear in the UAE Derby to win by eight lengths. Christophe Soumillon takes the ride on him.

This looks a really competitive renewal and there is bound to be a furious pace. The draw could be a concern for American Pharoah’s supporters but he looks a straight-forward ride and is the one to beat.

Tips

American Pharoah @3-1 Paddy Power

Mubtaahij @12-1 Ladbrokes (each-way)

¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Prince Bishop stars on Dubai World Cup night

A top quality card on Dubai World Cup night featuring five Group 1 races ended with success for the Maktoum family when Prince Bishop stormed to victory in the main event.

For much of the race it had looked as though California Chrome would add his name to the roll of honour but he had no answer when William Buick produced Prince Bishop on his outside. The winner has been a grand servant to Saeed bin Suroor with eleven victories in a 28-race career but this is by far his biggest success.

It was quite a night for the veterans with Brown Panther winning the Dubai Gold Cup for Tom Dascombe and Sole Power returning to his best in the Al Quoz Sprint. Perhaps the most significant performance of the night came from the French-trained Solow in the Dubai Turf.

The grey stormed clear of last year’s French Derby and Irish Champion Stakes winner The Grey Gatsby to win by four lengths. He looks set to be one of the stars of the season on turf. The French were also celebrating after Dolniya won the Dubai Sheema Classic under Christophe Soumillon. She confirmed her superiority over Flintshire from their recent meeting at Chantilly.

The Americans did not return empty-handed with Secret Circle gaining a well-deserved Group 1 success in the Dubai Golden Shaheen under a confident ride from Victor Espinoza. Although the winning margin was only a head, he never really looked like being caught by Super Jockey.

The UAE Derby was won in spectacular style by Mubtaahij for Mike de Kock and the colt will now head for the Kentucky Derby. He travelled easily throughout and gained revenge on his narrow 2000 Guineas conqueror Maftool who was beaten half a mile from home. The winning margin was eight lengths but it could have been doubled had Soumillon wished.

The form may be questionable but Mubtaahij goes to Kentucky with a major chance and is available at 12-1 with UK bookmakers. He will of course come up against the Baffert duo of American Pharoah and Dortmund who currently dominate the market.

Tamarkuz won the opening Godolphin Mile, giving us a tidy 30-1 treble on our Ante-Post update; Tamarkuz (6-4), Mubtaahij (11-4) and Solow (9-4).

Ante-post

Mubtaahij @12-1 Coral (Kentucky Derby)