The last time the South Africans played at Eden Park they were left heartbroken. A final over loss to New Zealand in the semi-final of the World Cup meant once again they wouldn’t have the opportunity to atone for World Cup pain of the past.
The enduring image of that match is of Grant Elliot picking Dale Steyn up off the floor after hitting him for six over deep midwicket to win the match. And while similar drama is unlikely in a one-off Twenty20 international on Friday, there will be a desire amongst a weakened South African side to forge new images of Eden Park, that will be remembered longer than those from 2015.
The Last Time These Two Met
The teams last played a Twenty20 series in 2015. Hosted in South Africa the series was split one each, with the home side taking the lead by easily chasing 152 in Durban before New Zealand squared things up at Centurion by defending 177.
In total, South Africa have won 10 of the 14 Twenty20 internationals between the sides. That makes them attractively priced for this one-off game despite (or because of) their series loss to Sri Lanka at home recently in the same format.
The Teams
South Africa (from):
AB de Villiers (capt), Faf du Plessis, Hashim Amla, Farhaan Behardien, Quinton de Kock (wk), JP Duminy, Imran Tahir, David Miller, Chris Morris, Wayne Parnell, Dane Paterson, Andile Phehlukwayo, Dwaine Pretorius, Kagiso Rabada, Tabraiz Shamsi
South Africa will be disappointed to be without rising quick Lungi Ngidi for the one-off game and the ODI series. His loss will be felt by a side missing most of it’s known seamers (the likes of Steyn, Morkel, Abbott and Philander). Dane Paterson will travel with the side as cover for Ngidi and Dwaine Pretorius whose wife is due to give birth.
New Zealand (from):
Kane Williamson (capt), Corey Anderson, Trent Boult, Tom Bruce, Lockie Ferguson, Colin de Grandhomme, Glenn Phillips, Colin Munro, James Neesham, Luke Ronchi (wk), Mitchell Santner, Ish Sodhi, Tim Southee, Ben Wheeler
New Zealand often uses the T20 format to blow youngsters as shown by the continued inclusion of Tom Bruce and Ben Wheeler in the squad, and the drafting of Aucklander Glenn Phillips into the side to replace the injured Martin Guptill.
The Key Players
South Africa
David Miller doesn’t have the strongest record in the short format (unless you consider IPL form too); admittedly because he doesn’t get much of a chance to flex his muscle until very late in the innings. However, the powerful left-hander is a huge threat. Coming off an ODI hundred against Sri Lanka in his last innings (and a brief injury that forced him to miss the last three games of that series), Miller could go huge at Eden Park.
New Zealand
Before his late withdrawal, Martin Guptill was going to be heavily featured in this spot. Guptill averages 53 in T20 internationals against South Africa and has more runs than any other player from either nation in matches between the two. His average at Eden Park in the format is also over 50.
Alas, he’s not playing, so let’s highlight his replacement, Glenn Phillips. The twenty-year-old led the run scoring in New Zealand’s T20 competition with 369 and registered the highest score with 116*. The diminutive keeper batsman is an aggressive ball striker and might be comfortable at his Auckland home.
The Match Odds
South Africa– $1.78 at Palmerbet.
New Zealand – $2.10 at Bet365.
The Prediction
The evenly matched sides with their unique mix of experience and youth are difficult to separate. However, with an overall winning record against the Black Caps in the format of 71% it’s awfully hard to predict anything other than a South African win. That’s despite New Zealand’s incredible form in all formats at home this summer (albeit against Pakistan and Bangladesh).
The Best Bets
Guptill’s record against South Africa and at Friday’s venue are compelling. He’s at $3.75 to top score, which looks like one of the better options available.
For the South Africans, the normal list of superstars, de Villiers, Amla and de Kock are all priced lower than former T20 and current test captain Faf du Plessis, meaning there is some value in Faf at $5. Why? Batting at number 3 gives him plenty of overs at the crease and he’s coming off 185 in the fourth ODI against Sri Lanka.
