Black Caps Desperate to Break Protea’s 12 Game Winning Streak

South Africa have started their tour of New Zealand in the same way they’ve played their last 12 ODI games – by winning. After beating Australia 5-0 and then Sri Lanka 5-0 (both at home), the South Africans have showcased their self-belief, a trait AB de Villiers has said is at the highest level he has seen in his 13 years around the squad, by beating the Black Caps in both the one-off T20 game the ODI opener.

The series now heads to Christchurch on Wednesday, we preview the action below:

The Series So Far

The ODI series opener in Hamilton was a rain-shortened affair that ended with the same result as the Twenty20 game just two days earlier. However, the manner of the South African victory was a lot different.

In a game that went right down to the wire, South Africa snuck a win by three wickets after successfully chasing 208 in 34 overs. AB de Villiers guided the chase home, scoring a composed 37 not out from 32 balls, but was terrifically supported by Andile Phehlukwayo (29 off 23).

In truth, South Africa bossed the game for a lot of it. They had NZ in trouble early at 108-5 before Tim Southee and Colin de Grandhomme added an unbeaten 51 (from about four overs) to drag the Black Caps to 207. South Africa looked in total control at 88-0, but lost clusters of wickets to the slow bowlers and fast bowlers imitating slow bowlers, to the point where they required 22 off the final two overs.

The Teams

South Africa (from)

AB de Villiers (capt), Faf du Plessis, Hashim Amla, Farhaan Behardien, Quinton de Kock (wk), JP Duminy, Imran Tahir, David Miller, Chris Morris, Wayne Parnell, Dane Paterson, Andile Phehlukwayo, Dwaine Pretorius, Kagiso Rabada, Tabraiz Shamsi.

South Africa have a few choices to make. Farhaan Behardien is woefully out of form and could be replaced by David Miller. Tabraiz Shamsi might also miss out with Wayne Parnell and Dane Paterson the options to replace him.

New Zealand (from)

Kane Williamson (capt), Trent Boult, Neil Broom, Lockie Ferguson, Colin de Grandhomme, Dean Brownlie, Matt Henry, Tom Latham, James Neesham, Luke Ronchi, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Ish Sodhi, Ross Taylor.

The only change NZ may consider is using Lockie Ferguson rather than Ish Sodhi on the quicker surface, unless they’re brave enough to drop the underperforming Tim Southee too.

The Key Players

South Africa

Kagiso Rabada is one of the premium up and coming quicks on the international circuit. Although, it might be unkind to call him up and coming considering he’s already announced himself with big performances against England (13-144), Australia (5-92) and Sri Lanka (10-92) over the past two seasons. Rabada can bowl quickly for long spells with devastating accuracy, a combination that is deadly in the test game, but equally useful in the ODI game – as his debut figures (the best of any debutant) of 6-16, including a hat-trick, against Bangladesh attest to. We’re predicting Rabada to have a big impact here in game two.

New Zealand

Tom Latham could be about to become New Zealand’s number one wicketkeeper in the one day game given that the selectors are stuck between not liking the form or incumbent, Luke Ronchi, and not trusting the ability of newcomer, Tom Blundell. Ronchi’s 35 and horribly out of form. It’s understandable if they part ways with him. But will Hesson go for Latham, an established batsman in the test and one-day game or Blundell, a very accomplished player in his own right. It seems they’re leaning towards Latham for the balance he offers the side, but he must contribute more with the bat than the zero he made in Hamilton.

The Match Odds*

South Africa – $1.32

New Zealand – $2.60

*All odds from Sportsbet.

The Prediction

South Africa are now unbeaten in their last 12 ODIs. It’s an unbelievable record that will be very tricky for the Black Caps to break. Despite the drama of Hamilton, we’re picking South Africa to shade game 2 as well. South Africa by five wickets or 40 runs.

The Best Bets

Kane Williamson looked a class above his compatriots on the tacky Hamilton surface that de Villiers described as one of the toughest he’s played on. He’ll be a good chance at top scoring at $3.75, but also consider Dean Brownlie, Martin Guptill’s replacement who plays brilliantly off the back foot and will benefit from the added bounce at Hagley.

Black Caps Head to Hamilton Needing to Improve

New Zealand’s unbeaten home summer of cricket came to an end in spectacular fashion last night. The Black Caps were trounced by the visiting South Africans in the series opening Twenty20 game held at an Eden Park ground that was as bleak as the Black Caps performance was.

The 78-run thrashing (albeit expected given South Africa’s superior T20 history) sets up an exciting five match series beginning at Seddon Park in Hamilton. We preview the series opener below:

The Last Time These Two Met

The Black Caps toured South Africa in August 2015 and lost the ODI series 2-1. With the series to play for in Durban in the final ODI, New Zealand faltered badly to be all out for 221 chasing 284. The loss compounded a tough series for the New Zealand side and a tough initiation for new captain Kane Williamson. This came after New Zealand’s clutch World Cup semi-final win at Eden Park

More recently, the teams competed in a series-opening Twenty20 match at Eden Park on Friday night. The tourists completely dominated the Black Caps in all facets of the game to set an ominous tone for the series.

The Teams

South Africa (from)

AB de Villiers (capt), Faf du Plessis, Hashim Amla, Farhaan Behardien, Quinton de Kock (wk), JP Duminy, Imran Tahir, David Miller, Chris Morris, Wayne Parnell, Dane Paterson, Andile Phehlukwayo, Dwaine Pretorius, Kagiso Rabada, Tabraiz Shamsi

Most of South Africa’s stars made contributions to the win on Friday night in Auckland. Particularly impressive were Chris Morris and Andile Phehlukwayo who may not have been automatic selections for the ODI games, but who would have done their selection chances no harm.

New Zealand (from)

Kane Williamson (capt), Trent Boult, Neil Broom, Lockie Ferguson, Colin de Grandhomme, Dean Brownlie, Matt Henry, Tom Latham, James Neesham, Luke Ronchi, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Ish Sodhi, Ross Taylor.

Ross Taylor and Neil Broom are important additions to the ODI squad. The Black Caps middle order woes have been exposed in a few formats this year (and in the one-off T20 game), and the experienced pair will significantly strengthen the side. Dean Brownie will open the batting; in for the injured Martin Guptill. While Ish Sodhi is another spin option and might come into the equations in Hamilton, a ground he’s performed well at in the past.

The Key Players

South Africa

The celebratory runs each time he took a wicket may have been a tad over the top, but the praise that Imran Tahir received after his five wicket haul in the T20 was not. Tahir completely outfoxed the New Zealand batsman with his variations (the wrong un-especially effective) to take five wickets and underpin his credentials as the best ODI bowler in the world. The Black Caps worrying inability to pick the leg spinner will have Tahir eyeing up another haul of wickets.

New Zealand

If there was one positive note to come out the T20 loss on Friday night it was the performance of left-arm quick, Trent Boult. Boult’s incredible spell yielded two wickets for just eight runs and will have had IPL teams salivating about the prospect of snapping him up at the player auction tonight. Boult may be back to his best given his form from Friday and his resurgence against Australia in the home portion of the Chappell-Hadlee series.

The Match Odds*

South Africa – $1.61

New Zealand – $2.30

*All odds from Bet365.

The Prediction

South Africa was so impressive in the Twenty20 match at Eden Park that it is difficult to predict anything other than another win. It’s simply too hard to fathom a match where de Kock, Amla, de Villiers or du Plessis all fail – and that’s without even mentioning their bowlers. The Brown / Taylor middle order isn’t enough to offset the Protea’s class. South Africa by three wickets or 40 runs.

The Best Bets

We’ve previously noted Ish Sodhi’s great record at Seddon Park (his 2-31 against Australia last year the highlight) where he plays his domestic cricket. Thus at $5 to be the Top Wicket-taker he’s a nice chance.

If you’re keen to go all in on the leg spinners, Imran Tahir is slightly shorter at $4 but a great chance given his form and current ODI ranking.

South Africa out for Eden Park Revenge in One-off T20

The last time the South Africans played at Eden Park they were left heartbroken. A final over loss to New Zealand in the semi-final of the World Cup meant once again they wouldn’t have the opportunity to atone for World Cup pain of the past.

The enduring image of that match is of Grant Elliot picking Dale Steyn up off the floor after hitting him for six over deep midwicket to win the match. And while similar drama is unlikely in a one-off Twenty20 international on Friday, there will be a desire amongst a weakened South African side to forge new images of Eden Park, that will be remembered longer than those from 2015.

The Last Time These Two Met

The teams last played a Twenty20 series in 2015. Hosted in South Africa the series was split one each, with the home side taking the lead by easily chasing 152 in Durban before New Zealand squared things up at Centurion by defending 177.

In total, South Africa have won 10 of the 14 Twenty20 internationals between the sides. That makes them attractively priced for this one-off game despite (or because of) their series loss to Sri Lanka at home recently in the same format.

The Teams

South Africa (from):

AB de Villiers (capt), Faf du Plessis, Hashim Amla, Farhaan Behardien, Quinton de Kock (wk), JP Duminy, Imran Tahir, David Miller, Chris Morris, Wayne Parnell, Dane Paterson, Andile Phehlukwayo, Dwaine Pretorius, Kagiso Rabada, Tabraiz Shamsi

South Africa will be disappointed to be without rising quick Lungi Ngidi for the one-off game and the ODI series. His loss will be felt by a side missing most of it’s known seamers (the likes of Steyn, Morkel, Abbott and Philander). Dane Paterson will travel with the side as cover for Ngidi and Dwaine Pretorius whose wife is due to give birth.

New Zealand (from):

Kane Williamson (capt), Corey Anderson, Trent Boult, Tom Bruce, Lockie Ferguson, Colin de Grandhomme, Glenn Phillips, Colin Munro, James Neesham, Luke Ronchi (wk), Mitchell Santner, Ish Sodhi, Tim Southee, Ben Wheeler

New Zealand often uses the T20 format to blow youngsters as shown by the continued inclusion of Tom Bruce and Ben Wheeler in the squad, and the drafting of Aucklander Glenn Phillips into the side to replace the injured Martin Guptill.

The Key Players

South Africa

David Miller doesn’t have the strongest record in the short format (unless you consider IPL form too); admittedly because he doesn’t get much of a chance to flex his muscle until very late in the innings. However, the powerful left-hander is a huge threat. Coming off an ODI hundred against Sri Lanka in his last innings (and a brief injury that forced him to miss the last three games of that series), Miller could go huge at Eden Park.

New Zealand

Before his late withdrawal, Martin Guptill was going to be heavily featured in this spot. Guptill averages 53 in T20 internationals against South Africa and has more runs than any other player from either nation in matches between the two. His average at Eden Park in the format is also over 50.

Alas, he’s not playing, so let’s highlight his replacement, Glenn Phillips. The twenty-year-old led the run scoring in New Zealand’s T20 competition with 369 and registered the highest score with 116*. The diminutive keeper batsman is an aggressive ball striker and might be comfortable at his Auckland home.

The Match Odds

South Africa– $1.78 at Palmerbet.

New Zealand – $2.10 at Bet365.

The Prediction

The evenly matched sides with their unique mix of experience and youth are difficult to separate. However, with an overall winning record against the Black Caps in the format of 71% it’s awfully hard to predict anything other than a South African win. That’s despite New Zealand’s incredible form in all formats at home this summer (albeit against Pakistan and Bangladesh).

The Best Bets

Guptill’s record against South Africa and at Friday’s venue are compelling. He’s at $3.75 to top score, which looks like one of the better options available.

For the South Africans, the normal list of superstars, de Villiers, Amla and de Kock are all priced lower than former T20 and current test captain Faf du Plessis, meaning there is some value in Faf at $5. Why? Batting at number 3 gives him plenty of overs at the crease and he’s coming off 185 in the fourth ODI against Sri Lanka.