Tiger Woods’s withdraw from the Safeway Open and the Turkish Open were curious decisions, if not unsurprising. Unsurprising, because we’ve got used to Tiger missing golf tournaments over the last four years, but curious because Tiger pulled out because of doubts over the mental aspect of his game.
He admitted he was healthy. He admitted his game (read mind) wasn’t.
He was worried he couldn’t be competitive over four rounds of golf. Most assumed the mental doubts were chipping related after former coach Hank Haney commented that he had witnesses reporting he was flubbing most chips in practice.
Whatever the cause, Woods’s admission was new territory. Woods never gave an inch. He exerted his dominance over every other player and instilled fear in anyone unlucky enough to get him in a Sunday battle down the stretch.
But now, with his own belief waning, and players no longer fearful, Tiger’s prospect is entirely different. Tiger’s teeing it up in his own tournament, the Hero World Challenge. The media aren’t waiting for him to do something superlative. They’re waiting for mistakes. Every putt, every chip will be analysed like never before. Any mistake will be jumped on, and with it will come an article writing off his chances of catching Jack Nicklaus’s major record.
Tiger last played in the tournament here in 2014 opening with a 77, and ultimately settling for a tie in last place at even par. Tiger did close with a nice 69, but his appearance will be remembered for all of the fluffed chips that are still popular on YouTube.
How he goes this year will be riveting. Sportsbet has him at $34 to win, the longest odds in the field.
Here’s my take on the tournament and the contenders.
The Course
Albany’s 18-hole links style championship golf course was designed by Ernie Els. It boasts exquisite links and desert features with windswept dunes and a handful of tactically positioned water features. The par-72 course plays 7,400-yards and has a course record of 63, shot by Bubba Watson. A score of around 25-under is probably needed again to win it.
The Defending Champion
Bubba Watson held off Patrick Reed to win by three strokes last year. His 263 total was one worse than Jordan Spieth’s tournament record achieved the year before. Bubba hasn’t played for some time, so might be short of a gallop, but he’s plenty long enough to tame Albany again.
The Contenders*
This is awfully tricky given the quality of the invitation-only 18-man field, but here goes:
Dustin Johnson $6 – The player who was unbeatable at the end of last year is the favourite in the Bahamas. Three wins last year, including the US Open, prove Johnson was at his enigmatic best. His drive-wedge-missed putt formula has turnaround recently as the putts started to drop. He’s a massive threat for the field.
Jordan Spieth $7 – Coming off a win in Australia and playing at a course he’s won at before, Spieth is rightfully liked by the bookies. His win in Australia was professional rather than dominant – he sprayed his driver everywhere but was still good enough to win. You can never discount someone that putts as well as he does from 20 feet.
Hideki Matsuyama $9 – Three wins in his last four events(not including the World Cup) Matsuyama is the hottest player on the planet. So good with an iron in his hand, if he can make putts he will push the tournament record on the Albany course. Still played pretty nicely last week in tying for 6th with partner Ryo Ishikawa.
*Odds from Sportsbet.
The Winner
I’m picking Spieth to win, but if you’re looking for other betting options, get on Reed and Fowler to finish within the top 4. The two have been consistent in the event and will be there or thereabouts this week too.
