Tag: Golf betting

World’s Best Take on Tricky Tree-Lined Track in WGC

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Regular readers of our weekly golf preview will have noticed we achieved our second win of the season last week after correctly tipping Rickie Fowler to win the Honda Classic. While the prediction didn’t exactly involve us sticking our neck outs, it did feature three other players that finished in the top 25. Further reinforcing that the players highlighted below are not only great tips for the win, but also other bets on top 10s and top 25s when available.

With that in mind, here’s who we’re looking at this week:

The Course

For once, a course hosting a WGC has some truly unique characteristics. Club de Golf Chapultepec, in the mountains of Mexico City, offers challenges in altitude, unfamiliar greens and plenty of trees. The trees are probably the most talked about feature of the course ahead of this week’s World Golf Championship event.

The retro tree-lined layout isn’t long, but most of the pros are going to have to leave the driver in the bag as they navigate their way through the trees. The course is officially listed at 7,330 yards, however, when considering the appreciable distance a course at altitude can add to distances achieved, it is likely to play closer to 6000-6500 yards.

The course, which has been used in the past to host the Mexico Open (only one player in the field, Robert Diaz, played in the last edition of that event in 2014), will provide plenty of birdie opportunities if the players can keep it away from the impenetrably thick trees and out of the rough (despite the rough only being at 2inches). Expect to see lots of 2-irons and other safety players from the World’s best.

The Defending Champion

Adam Scott won the event, then hosted at Doral, by beating third-round leader Rory McIlroy in a rollercoaster final round. Scott had won the week before in the Honda Classic, surviving a quadruple bogey on Saturday to remind the Tour he’s good no matter what sort of putter he uses (this was shortly after the anchored putter ban).

At Doral, Scott started the day three shots back of Rory, hit two balls in the water, made two double bogeys, and still won. Another great escape effort that saw him become only the second player to win back to back titles on the Florida Swing (the other, Tiger Woods). Those early bogeys put him six behind after six holes, but the Australian played his final 13 holes in six under par to outclass the field.

He’s at $26 to defend this week, but we think he’s better suited to a top 10 bet.

The Contenders*

Dustin Johnson $7.50

This is the first time Johnson tees up as the World number one. Johnson’s imperious driver won’t get much of a workout but it might not matter. He ranks third on Tour for greens-in-regulation (GIR) and while some of that is down to hitting wedge into every green, it also points to a deadly accurate iron game no matter what the club. Reports suggest he’s hit the 2-iron well here during the practice rounds. Won three WGCs.

Jordan Spieth $9

Leading the Tour in GIR and posting top 10s all over the place. His worldwide streak of five in a row ended with a tie for 22nd at Riviera, however, he still looks ominous on a course that won’t see his lack of length disadvantage him.

Rickie Fowler $21

Coming off a win at the Honda Classic, Rickie is in hot form. Leads the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance, which isn’t a stat that comes into play on a course that will give up a lot of birdies, but outlines his how pure ball striking ability and impressive short game. An okay record at altitude, with a tie for 4th at the 2014 BMW Championship.

Henrik Stenson $13

A beautiful iron manipulator, Stenson’s struggled with injury woes but is still stringing together performances wherever he plays, including finishing second in his last tournament in Dubai. Four WGC top 5s, no wins.

Jon Rahm $29

A debutante this week in WGC events who won’t be phased by the calibre of the field. Coming off a win at Torrey Pines and a T16 at the Waste Management and T5 at Pebble Beach. Priced attractively.

Tyrell Hatton $51

Hatton continues to post top-10s like they’re going out of fashion. After contending at nearly every event on the European Tour, Hatton ventured over to the Honda Classic at PGA National and finished 4th. Featured in the final group with Fowler, but let his best golf get away from him. Would’ve taken lots away from it, including a huge injection of belief.

Francesco Molinari $67

Our outsider for the week is the Italian maestro, Francesco Molinari. Often out-powered by the bigger hitters, he thrives on smaller setups where straight is required and could surprise this week. Won the 2010 WGC in Shanghai and finished 3rd at the 2011 WGC-Cadillac event.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

This is tricky when the World’s top 50 are all available and the odds are accordingly low. We’ll take a punt on Hatton in a bid to go back to back on correct predictions.

Michelson Uncertain but Field Still Strong for CareerBuilder Challenge

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Most golfing eyes will be on Abu Dhabi this week as the biggest names tee off in the European Tour. All the other golfing eyes are still probably stretched apart in shock still, reeling at the impressive Justin Thomas and his dismantling of Hawaiian golf courses and fellow PGA Tour pros over the last two weeks.

If you can look away from the European action for a second, or recover from the surprise of Thomas, the CareerBuilder Challenge still has an excellent field to follow. Let’s check out the key talking points from this week’s PGA Tour action:

The Course

The PGA West TPC Stadium course is an absolute brute. Long, difficult and once described by golf columnist Jim Murray as needing “a camel, a canoe, a priest and a tourniquet to get through”. The Pete Dye-designed golf course is over 7300 yards from the championship tees and is often ranked as one of the best courses in America. It often also features in lists of the most difficult courses in America. A stadium course because of the naturally sculpted spectator seating, the course is used to grandstand finishes as the venue for PGA Tour qualifying school tournaments every other year. The reason for the excitement? The island green on the 17th, nicknamed Alcatraz, and the difficult water-logged 18th.

The event’s pro-am format also will utilise PGA West’s Nicklaus Tournament course (7,159/72) and La Quinta Country Club (7,060/72) in the first three rounds.

The Defending Champion

Jason Dufner ended a victory drought of nearly 2 ½ years and notched his fourth career victory (and first since winning his sole major at the 2013 PGA Championship at Oak Hill) when he won here last year. His win is largely remembered for the miraculous par he made on 17, known now as an escape from Alcatraz.

Dufner tugged his 8-iron right and instead of having his ball bounce hard off the rocks protecting the green, his ball nestled into a sandy area from which he was able to save par from (almost made two as his chip shot lipped out).

In the end, Dufner won on the second playoff hole, beating Sweden’s David Lingmerth who caught a bad break on the second playoff hole. Dufner’s at $34 to go back-to-back.

The Contenders*

Phil Mickelson $21

Lefty makes his traditional start of the year after a three-month layoff. Phil’s last tournament was the Safeway Open in October, where he earned a share of eighth. Mickelson has both familiarity and history on his side at this course, he’s won the tournament twice and he managed to tie for third here last year. He looks a great option in a relatively weak field. Note, Phil is still recovering from a sports hernia injury and could be in doubt to tee up.

Patrick Reed $12

Reed hasn’t hit anywhere near the form that made him become a Ryder Cup icon late last year – quite simply the putts have stopped rolling in for the feisty American. However, he’s still a threat at a tournament he’s won before (in 2014). Shared sixth place at Kapalua recently despite admitting to feeling “80 percent” after a recent illness.

Hudson Swafford $54

Tied for 13th last week after an opening 62 but a disappointing closing 71. Hits it long and has a nice touch to be able to cope with less than perfect ball striking. Hasn’t missed a cut this season and seems to be popping up on the first page of the leaderboard more often than not recently.

Zach Johnson $21

A 61 in the second round in Hawaii showed he’s on the right track, where he ultimately finished 6th. Johnson has four top-25 finishes in the tournament amongst two missed cuts. Doesn’t need much to get himself going, so his inclusion here is essentially down to the confidence boosting 61 at the Sony Open.

Bill Haas $21

A compelling record at the CareerBuilder, two-time champion (2010, 2015) and the tournament’s all-time money leader, puts Haas near the top of the rankings this week. Boasts an unbelievable thirty-nine consecutive red numbers here since 2008. Record here is also well supported by his start to the season that has seen him go T20-T4-T13-T13.Ready to win this week – a big chance.

Jaime Lovemark $34

Lovemark has picked up in 2017 where he left off in 2016. A tie of fourth last week at Sony followed up a tie for 6th in the RSM late last year. Was leading this tournament last year after round two (ultimately finishing 6th) but has become a much more complete golfer since then. Good all round game suited to the new layout of the CareerBuilder.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

We really like Haas this week. An exemplary record at the CareerBuilder and despite a change in venue has the consistency behind him this season to manage the unsettling layout changes.

Thomas Aims to Join Golf’s Elite in Hawaii

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With a win in Hawaii last week Justin Thomas made it crystal clear he intends to start being included in the most important golf conversations with Spieth, Day, McIlroy and Johnson. The former college teammate of Jordan Spieth picked up his fourth professional win in the elite field event, and in the process compounded Hideki Matsuyama to just his second loss in four months (also to Thomas).

It’s only a matter of time before Thomas joins the echelon, and it could be sooner rather than later if he can pick up another Hawaiian win this week.

The Course

Waialae Country Club in Hawaii is nicely positioned between a spectacular mountain range on the north and the vast Pacific Ocean on the south. Built in 1920, it’s a spectacular combination of scenery and strategic golf. The golf course has improved out of sight over the last few years – coinciding with the PGA Tour setting up the Sony Open here in 1999. The course now tests PGA Tour players with sharply tailored greens and protected fairways, while television viewers are simply treated to exquisite sunset views.

The Defending Champion

Fabian Gomez won for the second time on the PGA TOUR here in 2016. The Argentine started the final round four shots adrift but closed strongly with seven straight birdies midway through his final round. His 20-under total of 260 was too good for nearest challengers Brandt Snedeker and Zac Blair. Bookies aren’t giving him much chance to repeat, though. He’s at $81 to go back to back.

The Contenders*

Justin Thomas $13

Fresh off a win last week, Thomas is the form golfer in the world right now (along with Hideki Matsuyama. Thomas is the only player to beat Matsuyama over the last four months). His win last week could be the start of something incredible as he looks to challenge the other names at the top of world golf more regularly. Two wins and a fourth from his last four starts. Should go close.

Hideki Matsuyama $8

Last six starts have been four wins and two seconds. The guy is in serious form. And despite having a less than stellar record at Waialae, his imported putting should still see him feature on the leaderboard come Sunday.

Jordan Spieth $7

The tournament favourite based on a strong history in Hawaii and some promising form last week. Spieth’s final round last week was the best in the field and showed his game is heading in the right direction. If he can eliminate the mistakes (he had triples and doubles last week) he’ll be tricky to beat even though he missed the cut at his last start here.

Jimmy Walker $21

Two-time winner here and last week’s first round leader. Walker won by nine here in 2015 and followed it up with a top 15 last year. Seriously comfortable on Hawaiian courses as evidenced by his 66 scoring average. Consider.

Paul Casey $21

Hasn’t played a bunch of late, but before a summer off had four consecutive top 4s. Casey opened last year’s event with a 62, which remains his career lowest round on the PGA Tour. It will be interesting to see if he’s still got the belief from last year’s incredible effort.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

Thomas looks sensible money for an outright market or for a finish inside the top 5/10. Outside of the contenders above Gary Woodland is good money at $36. Those two are where I’d be looking.

Tiger Returns to Competitive Golf With Question Marks Over Mind

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Tiger Woods’s withdraw from the Safeway Open and the Turkish Open were curious decisions, if not unsurprising. Unsurprising, because we’ve got used to Tiger missing golf tournaments over the last four years, but curious because Tiger pulled out because of doubts over the mental aspect of his game.

He admitted he was healthy. He admitted his game (read mind) wasn’t.

He was worried he couldn’t be competitive over four rounds of golf. Most assumed the mental doubts were chipping related after former coach Hank Haney commented that he had witnesses reporting he was flubbing most chips in practice.

Whatever the cause, Woods’s admission was new territory. Woods never gave an inch. He exerted his dominance over every other player and instilled fear in anyone unlucky enough to get him in a Sunday battle down the stretch.

But now, with his own belief waning, and players no longer fearful, Tiger’s prospect is entirely different. Tiger’s teeing it up in his own tournament, the Hero World Challenge. The media aren’t waiting for him to do something superlative. They’re waiting for mistakes. Every putt, every chip will be analysed like never before. Any mistake will be jumped on, and with it will come an article writing off his chances of catching Jack Nicklaus’s major record.

Tiger last played in the tournament here in 2014 opening with a 77, and ultimately settling for a tie in last place at even par. Tiger did close with a nice 69, but his appearance will be remembered for all of the fluffed chips that are still popular on YouTube.

How he goes this year will be riveting. Sportsbet has him at $34 to win, the longest odds in the field.

Here’s my take on the tournament and the contenders.

The Course

Albany’s 18-hole links style championship golf course was designed by Ernie Els. It boasts exquisite links and desert features with windswept dunes and a handful of tactically positioned water features. The par-72 course plays 7,400-yards and has a course record of 63, shot by Bubba Watson. A score of around 25-under is probably needed again to win it.

The Defending Champion

Bubba Watson held off Patrick Reed to win by three strokes last year. His 263 total was one worse than Jordan Spieth’s tournament record achieved the year before. Bubba hasn’t played for some time, so might be short of a gallop, but he’s plenty long enough to tame Albany again.

The Contenders*

This is awfully tricky given the quality of the invitation-only 18-man field, but here goes:

Dustin Johnson $6 – The player who was unbeatable at the end of last year is the favourite in the Bahamas. Three wins last year, including the US Open, prove Johnson was at his enigmatic best. His drive-wedge-missed putt formula has turnaround recently as the putts started to drop. He’s a massive threat for the field.

Jordan Spieth $7 – Coming off a win in Australia and playing at a course he’s won at before, Spieth is rightfully liked by the bookies. His win in Australia was professional rather than dominant – he sprayed his driver everywhere but was still good enough to win. You can never discount someone that putts as well as he does from 20 feet.

Hideki Matsuyama $9 – Three wins in his last four events(not including the World Cup) Matsuyama is the hottest player on the planet. So good with an iron in his hand, if he can make putts he will push the tournament record on the Albany course. Still played pretty nicely last week in tying for 6th with partner Ryo Ishikawa.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

I’m picking Spieth to win, but if you’re looking for other betting options, get on Reed and Fowler to finish within the top 4. The two have been consistent in the event and will be there or thereabouts this week too.

Spieth Faces Scott Challenge in Australian Open

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The Triple Crown is a big deal in Australian golf. A trio of tournaments so difficult to win individually, and nigh on impossible to own all at the same time. The first leg is the Australian Open. Hosted this year by the Royal Sydney Golf Club.

Take a look at our preview of the course, the contenders and the odds below:

The Course

Royal Sydney Golf Club – The Championship Course at Royal Sydney is a traditional golf course without tricks or gimmicks. Heavily bunkering and undulating fairways make it a tricky prospect, especially in strong winds. The set-up favours ball strikers, where fairways and greens are the order of the day. The course doesn’t play overly long, as evidenced by past wins from Tim Clark and John Senden, but the greens will make up for the length and provide an appropriate challenge (having in 2003 undergone an extensive rebuilding phase).

The Defending Champion

Last year, Matt Jones snuck into the clubhouse ahead of the fast finishing Adam Scott and heavily backed favourite Jordan Spieth. Spieth was defending his 2014 title and was poised to go back-to-back before a disappointing even-par final round curtailed his chances. Jones will not defend his title, opting to concentrate on his PGA Tour commitments at the RSM Classic. Jones has actually shown some nice form in the States this year – a tie for 15th at the Shriners giving him much needed early FedEx Cup points – so it’s a shame he won’t defend here.

The Contenders*

Jordan Spieth $4 – The winner of the Australian Open in 2014, and along with the man below, one of the overwhelming favourites for this year’s tournament. Despite a minor lull in his output ever since the Masters meltdown, Spieth is still an unbelievably good golfer and one of the best mid-range putters in the game. He’s a certainty to be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday even though he hasn’t played since the Ryder Cup.

Adam Scott $4.5 – The best ball striker in the business is expected to do well on a course well suited to pure ball strikers. A winner here in 2009, just down the road at the NSW Golf Club and runner-up last year. Scott performed well on the PGA Tour in 2015, putting together a season that featured: two wins, two seconds and a fourth place finish in the FedEx Cup. The odds on a Scott win look very attractive.

John Senden $23 – Sendo’s been grinding for the past few years, but should still be competitive back on home soil. A previous winner of the tournament – Royal Sydney in 2006 – Senden’s strengths include a creative short game and an accurate long game. While on paper that sounds ideal this week, there are question marks over his ability to close out a tournament, given he hasn’t competed in tournaments for some time.

Geoff Ogilvy $26 – The evergreen Ogilvy is possibly the nicest man in golf. Humble, intelligent and spiritual too. Having enjoyed success the world over, including major titles, Ogilvy still has the drive to succeed. Matching that drive is a game that’s holding up to the younger generation too; Ogilvy finished tied for 4th at the recent Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. A former champion, Ogilvy is a good chance this week.

Cameron Smith $26 – The young Australian has made an excellent start to the 2016/17 PGA Tour season. After four events, he’s ranked 37th in the FedEx Cup, with a scoring average of 70.

Curtis Luck $41 – An outsider, but one with real promise. The US Amateur Champion and recent Eisenhower Trophy winner with the Australian team makes his Australian Open debut at Royal Sydney.

Adam Blyth $67 – The Queenslander won the recent NSW Open despite a horrible stumble midway through his round that featured six dropped shots in six holes. If form is an indication as to success in Sydney, Blyth’s an attractive prospect.

*Odds from Bet365

The Winner

There’s a lot of talent in the list above, and we didn’t even get to recent PGA Tour winner Rod Pampling. Picking one is like choosing what to watch on Netflix – far too hard to narrow. However, we like Adam Scott. The course suits him, and he’ll have fond memories of his 62 (achieved in 2014).

Amazing Grace to Land the Big Money Prize

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

THE European Tour comes to an end this week with the big money DP World Tour Championships from the stunning Jumeirah Golf Resort, Dubai.

The market is headed by the man who has the best record in this event, and that is the defending champion Rory McIlroy who is as short at 3.25 favourite to win his third Dubai title.

McIlory has a fantastic record at Jumeirah winning twice in the last four years, and making the top five on every occasion in that period.

The former World number one looks certain to be in the shake-up, but odds of just 3.25 in such a stellar field like this really aren’t the kind of prices that excite me.

Henrik Stenson and Danny Willett will be having their own private battle to see who finishes top of the European money lists, and of the two, The Open champion Stenson is the more likely winner.

The Swede won here in both 2013 and 2014, and with top-seven finishes in the last three years, he will be a popular choice at the general 7.00.

Willett finished fourth here last year, but despite an encouraging 11th finish last week at the Nedbank, the US Masters champion hasn’t been in the best form since winning the green jacket in April, and 46.0 odds reflect his chances of success this week.

BRANDEN GRACE looks my idea of the winner at a very tempting 23.0 with BoyleSports.

The South African is the man for the “big occasion” always playing well at the big money events, and they don’t come much bigger than in Dubai this week.

Last year the 28-year-old finished in a share of third place, which was his third top 10 finish in Dubai in the last four visits, and he arrives this time around in in good form.

At the Nedbank last week Grace finished in third place, and with a fourth finish in the last major of the season at the US PGA Championships, he looks very capable of mounting a serious title challenge this week.

For each-way backers, VICTOR DUBUISSON is worth a couple of pounds each-way at the general 51.0.

Last week at the Nedbank, the likable Frenchman bounced back to form finishing in third place along with the South African playing some fantastic golf in a final round 66, and he should be full of confidence arriving at a venue where he always plays well.

In 2014 Dubuisson was runner-up to Stenson, and in 2013 he finished in third position behind the Swede again, and in good form and at a venue he loves playing, that could be a winning combination this week.