Tag: Football

Goals Expected In The Spanish Capital

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

THE Champions League returns this week and one of the biggest matches of the round is at the Bernabeu Stadium where 11-time champions of Europe Real Madrid host Napoli in the Spanish capital.

Madrid is a very heavy 1.57 favourite to take a first leg lead to southern Italy in a fortnight’s time, and with them sitting pretty at the top of La Liga, favourite backers will be out in force, but I am not so sure it’s the right thing to do.

Zinedine Zidane’s side hasn’t been in the best of form recently with just three wins in their last seven matches and this might not be as one-sided as the bookies will have you believe.

Madrid is unbeaten at home in the Champions League this season, but they’ve conceded in every match and they have also conceded in every one of their six group matches in this year’s Champions League and getting with goals looks the way to profit.

In those six matches not only did both teams score, but everyone featured more than 2.5 goals and the best bets in this first leg is the 1.62 on “yes” for both teams to score that is available with most bookies and 1.55 on over 2.5 goals in the match which is pretty general as well.

It’s the same story in Napoli games with both teams scoring in nine of the last ten and over 2.5 goals have come in as a winning bet in 11 of the Italian giants last 13 games and goals look a certainty.

Can we See a Shock?

The rule when Napoli play is to usually get with them at their Stadio San Paolo and oppose them away from home, but this season they’ve turned that away form on its head having only lost twice on their travels and just three times all season.

The Ciucciarelli have been totally overlooked to win this one at the 6.50 with Bet365 and Maurizio Sarri’s side has got a much better chance than those odds suggest.

The visitors are unbeaten in their last 18 matches and they offer a massive goal threat with 40 goals scored in their last 13, including SEVEN in their last away match at Bologna; Serie A’s top goal scorers can get something from this and I am taking the draw at the general 4.50.

Unlike Spanish v Italian European match-ups of yesteryear, this will be an entertaining end-to-end thriller, and at 15.00 I am going to have a very small bet on the game to end 2-2 in the correct score markets.

Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal: A Recurring Nightmare for Wenger

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

When Arsenal travel to Bayern Munich’s Allianz Arena on February 15, they’ll do so without the weight of history on their shoulders according to the home side’s winger, Arjen Robben.

Ahead of the Champions League clash, the Dutch star, who knows Arsene Wenger’s tactics inside from his time at Chelsea, believes that previous results won’t matter when the two lock horns again. Although it looks as though Bayern vs. Arsenal is something of an annual affair given that they’ve played three times in the last four years. However, in the annals of time, the two clubs have only played each other ten times.

Unfortunately for Arsenal, only three of those ten matches have gone their way. However, when Robben talks about previous results, we all know he’s not citing the bare stats (Bayern with 5 wins and 2 draws), we all know he’s talking about 2013, 2014 and 2015. If we look beyond the 2015 5-1 drubbing (we know, that’s hard to do), Bayern has knocked Arsenal out of the Champions League twice in recent memory.

Does History Matter?

Now, fans will instantly recall these results, but the big question is will the players? Well, Robben doesn’t believe it will register with his teammates. Talking to ESPN, Robben admitted that Bayern have “happy memories” against Arsenal but they will need to be 100% focused if they’re going to come out on top.

“They are a very strong team. Even stronger than last year. They’re doing very well in the Premier League. We’ve played them a few times over the last few years and always won — we always got through to the next round — but maybe this one will be the toughest one so far,” Robben told ESPN.

Now, when Robben gave this interview back in December, his assessment that Arsenal was doing “very well” in the Premier League was a fair one. Today, however, things aren’t so good. Although fourth in the table after 24 games, Wenger’s men look unlikely to claim the title and may even miss out on a top three finish. A recent 3-1 loss to Chelsea summed up just how far Arsenal are off the pace and, unsurprisingly, renewed the “Wenger out” calls from some fans.

Bayern are the Form Team

In contrast, Bayern is four points clear of RB Leipzig at the top of the Bundesliga with just one loss to their name this season. Add to that the customary winter break in Germany and it not only seems as though Carlo Ancelotti’s side will start with fresh legs but a ton of confidence. In fact, if the players took a moment to look at the latest betting odds they might find a few more reasons to smile.

Sun Bets currently has the home side as the runaway favourites at 1/2, while William Hill appears to have taken the most pity on Arsenal at 9/2 (Coral is offering 11/2 on an Arsenal win). Now, does this all mean Arsenal will roll over and give Bayern an insurmountable lead ahead of the second leg?

Almost certainly not, but the recent performance against Chelsea won’t inspire many. Lazy defending from Theo Walcott contributed to Chelsea’s first goal and saw him subbed in the second half. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Mesut Ozil both underperformed, while Alexis Sanchez was isolated throughout. One ray of light in the defeat to Chelsea was Laurent Koscielny who continued to battle even when things were going wrong.

There Will be Goals, but Probably Not for Arsenal

Based on those performances, Arsenal will either have to play out of their skins on February 15 to get some sort of result or simply accept they are going to struggle. Looking through the best options, 16/1 from Sun Bets on a 0-0 could have an outside chance of giving you some value. Arsenal’s players will know their best chance of avoiding elimination and progressing in the competition is to steal a draw in Germany and knick a win at the Emirates. Assuming Koscielny can inspire some sort of skill and desire in the likes of Shkodran Mustafi, Arsenal may have a chance of shutting Bayern down.

However, that certainly won’t be easy. With the likes of Robert Lewandowski and the aforementioned Robben running riot in the Bundesliga (21 goals between them), it’s hard to see how Arsenal get this one done. Assuming history repeats itself, the smart money in this game will be on Bayern to score at least two. Over 2.5 goals is a fairly uninspiring 6/10 at Coral, so if you’re looking for some scorecast value, something like 2-0 Bayern (7/1 at Coral) or even 3-1 Bayern (10/1 at Coral) could be good options.

Unfortunately, if you’re an Arsenal fan, February 15 looks as though it’s going to be a long night. Maybe the Gunners can do their trick of upping their game when it counts and get a result. However, all the signs seem to be pointing towards a comfortable win for Bayern Munich on this occasion.

Man United vs. Liverpool: Will United Make a Comeback?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Man United vs. Liverpool is a proverbial titans clash, and one of the most hotly contested derby matches in world football looks set to be another screamer on January 15. Heading into the match, Liverpool is certainly the form team. However, despite four places separating them in the Premier League, the gulf between the two teams might not be as wide as some would think.

In overall terms, Liverpool is currently outpacing their Premier League rivals with 44 points to 39. Now, as any football aficionado will tell you, a six-point gap after 20 games might as well be 60 points when you’re fighting for the title. With the top teams barely losing more than a handful of games each season, hoping to secure two wins while your closest rival slips twice are almost futile.

Of course, overcoming a six-point gap is not impossible, it’s just improbable. Just how improbable? Well, according to Sun Bets experts, the chances of United overtaking Liverpool and the rest of the top five is 16/1. In contrast, Jurgen Klopp’s men are currently the 9/2 second-favourites for the title behind Chelsea (3/4).

It’s Closer than You Think

So, if United’s chances of closing the gap are just improbable and not impossible, it also stands to reason that they have a chance of winning on Sunday. Before we break down the best bets, let’s take a quick look at the numbers. Yes, Liverpool has opened up a sizeable points gap. But, when you look at the individual numbers, United isn’t that far off the pace.

Liverpool’s 13 wins aren’t drastically better than United’s 11. Similarly, United’s three losses are only one more than Liverpool’s two. In fact, when we look at goals against, United actually have the upper hand with 19 against vs. 23 against. OK, so what does this tell us? Well, the first thing to note is that things aren’t as bad at United as people may have first assumed.

Thanks to an unfortunate combination of past achievements, current expectations and sensationalist media coverage, United’s drop in form over the last season or so has been characterised as disastrous. While it’s fair to say it’s a far cry from the Ferguson glory days, it’s also true that it’s not a disaster.

In fact, if we accept this fact and remove our emotions from the situation, it quickly becomes clear that United has a chance in this match. Moreover, when we factor in that this match will take place at Old Trafford, it seems any initial assumptions that this will be a comfortable win for Liverpool seem to fade away.

Odds Favour United

If nothing else, Man United vs. Liverpool will be a close, competitive match. In fact, the bookmakers seem to agree. Despite the Premier League table, recent form and fan fever suggesting Liverpool is primed to clinch the latest derby match, the odds tell a different story. For those wanting the best outright price in the current conditions, William Hill is offering 11/4 on Liverpool and 23/20 on United.

A tenner on the former at that price would return you £37.50, while the same on the latter would give you £21.50. Of course, with the gap between the two teams being tighter than many would assume, a draw could also be on the cards this weekend. Coral’s odds makers are offering 9/4 on a stalemate, as is William Hill. For a touch more value, Sun Bets will give you 23/10 on a draw, which means £10 could be worth £33.

Look for the Sensational Comeback

However, with this match promising to deliver on all fronts, it seems wise to look beyond the outrights and towards some specifics. Both teams to score at 3/4 with Sun Bets looks a strong, if not fairly uninspiring shout.

For our money, though, United to win from behind looks a tasty proposition. There’s no doubt Liverpool is going to travel to Manchester with the bit between their teeth. Recent form and Premier League superiority will allow Klopp’s men to come out firing, and if likes of Firmino can start strong, an early goal is a distinct possibility.

However, with United on a run of five wins and the home crowd backing them, a comeback will always be likely. Yes, it could end in a draw, but with odds of 10/1 on United coming from behind to win, it seems that it’s worth taking a punt on the more outlandish outcome.

Whatever the result, Man United vs. Liverpool will be another high-octane match. But, if you’re looking for a cheeky punt, a few quid on United to steal the show should give you a few more reasons to smile come the final whistle.

Chelsea To Edge A Thriller Against The Champions

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

PREMIER League leaders Chelsea travel to the champions Leicester this weekend, and the bookies are taking no chances on Antonio Conte’s side.

The Londoners are as short as 1.57 to win, which will be their eleventh win in the last 12, but even though they should get the three points, that is far too short a price for me to get involved with.

Leicester have made a very poor defence of their Premier League title this season and manager Claudio Ranieri has a big relegation battle on his hands, but the Italian will have his side well up for the visit of his former team, and this might be a lot closer than many are expecting.

At the weekend The Foxes celebrated a 2-1 FA Cup third round win at Everton and at home they’ve now just lost once in the last six matches boasting an impressive 4-2 win over Man City in that period; odds of 6.0 on the home side looks a spot of value.

Goals expected if history has its way

These two sides have already played twice this season and both previous meetings featured goals and over 2.5 goals in the match at 1.83 with William Hills and both team to score as a “yes” which is 1.91 with the same firm look the best bets in the match.

With goals looking highly likely for both sides and Chelsea already boasting two wins against their rivals this season, they should win the match and the best way to get with the Premier League title favourites is to get with them on some attractive correct-score plays.

Crucial match for Chelsea

It’s a must win for Chelsea with main title rivals Manchester United and Liverpool facing each other this weekend and I can see them edging a decent watch 3-1 which is a very tasty looking 15.0 with Bet365.

England striker Jamie Vardy is back in the Leicester side after missing out recently through suspension and he’s a general 9.00 to open the goalscoring against the Blues’.

It hasn’t been a great season for Vardy but it has been for Chelsea’s top goalscorer Diego Costa who is the top Premier League goalscorer at the moment with 14 goals and I really like the 4.00 on the Spaniard to open the goal scoring and the 1.91 on him to score at any time in the match.

Can Tottenham Maintain their Great Title Form?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Tottenham fans simply cannot forget how they let the title slip last season. What made matters even worse was in how they were eventually overtaken by close neighbours Arsenal and finished third. Those wounds still run deep around White Hart Lane. Tottenham struggled to come to terms with playing at Wembley and were subsequently dumped out of the Champions League a few weeks ago.

Their form in the Premier League has been excellent. They currently have 42pts from 20 games and should that form continue until the end of the season, they will surely make the top four. Tottenham is currently 7pts behind leaders Chelsea. Their impressive 2-0 win against The Blues last week took some momentum out of the Chelsea title charge. It also dragged Spurs back into the race.

Tottenham Simply Must Win

If Tottenham really is going to contest the title race then they must surely beat West Brom at home. With a seven-point deficit to overcome, securing three points at home to middle of the table teams is a necessity. Tottenham has started 2017 with a bang. They thumped Watford 4-1 away and then recorded back-to-back 2-0 home victories against Chelsea and Aston Villa in the FA Cup.

West Brom on the other hand, is a very resilient team under Tony Pulis. They have also had an impressive first half to the season. With an impressive 29pts recorded so far, West Brom currently sits eighth in the table. They may have lost at home to Derby County in the FA Cup last weekend, but that won’t have bothered Tony Pulis too much.

Where are the Best Bets?

Despite Tottenham arguably having one of the best squads in the league, their odds in this match are prohibitive. William Hill offers the stand out odds of 4-11 for a Spurs home win. You can also get an attractive 10-1 from Ladbrokes for an away win for West Brom. While Tottenham may be in decent form, they have drawn a lot of games this season and especially during the opening twelve matches.

This means that the 9-2 offered by BetFred may tempt a few people should you predict a Tottenham slip up. The chances are that Tottenham will win but the value is thin at best with odds of 4-11. While the 10-1 from Ladbrokes for an away victory does seem tempting, you will lose your money a significant number of times placing bets like these given how well Tottenham are playing at the moment. The recommended bet here would be to back Tottenham while placing a quarter of your stake on the draw as a safeguard.

Can the Tigers tame the Toffees?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Hull City vs Everton may not be a fixture to arouse the passion except if you come from Hull or Liverpool. However, there are a few interesting bets on offer and is the reason why we are previewing this game. Hull have had a tough season so far. They are clearly going to be one of the teams that will either get relegated or escape by the skin of their teeth. Losing Steve Bruce was a blow and they no longer look the same team without his guidance. Mike Phelan came in to steady the boat but his lack of managerial experience as a number one is proving to be costly.

Time to Make a Move

Hull dare not risk a gap developing at the bottom of the table. History tells us that teams that sit bottom of the league on New Years’ Day rarely survive. Hull City host Everton in what will be a vital festive programme for the Tigers. Everton has been inconsistent of late and the injury time loss to close rivals Liverpool didn’t help.

There are several interesting bets on offer that represent value. Firstly we can see odds of 19-5 from BetVictor for a Hull City victory. Everton has certainly been stronger than Hull this season. The key question is does that really convert to such poor odds for the home team in this fixture? To find odds of almost 4-1 for a home team to win a Premier League fixture is a rarity.

Everton is certainly well below the level of the top clubs and odds of 19-5 do seem like value. The problem with taking such a bet is that Hull is not playing well enough to win many games. You can also get odds of 13-5 on the draw with BetVictor which is another great value bet in our opinion.

Can Everton be backed for Value?

If there is value in backing Hull and the draw then you clearly cannot have it all ways. Something has to give. By sheer definition, backing Everton cannot be value. You can get odds of 4-5 for an Everton victory with Ladbrokes. Those odds are too short given the inconsistency of Everton’s season and the fact that they are the away team.

Even if Everton should prevail and take all three points, those odds are still too short. Betting is about finding the best value bets and not just identifying which team is likely to win. Mike Phelan must realise that his team clearly needs to push on after Christmas and start picking up regular points.

Hull will need to reach at least 35pts to have a realistic chance of surviving. Their current points per game total leave them short of that figure. If Mike Phelan cannot get an increased effort from his players then he could well be the next Premier League manager to get the sack.