Tag: Caulfield

Protectionist returns on Blue Diamond Stakes day

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Melbourne Autumn Carnival includes three top level feature races at Caulfield on Saturday and the reappearance of Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist.

The Peter Young Stakes sees the return of last season’s Flemington hero as he makes his first start for Kris Lees. He stormed to a four-length success in November under Ryan Moore when trained in Germany by Andreas Wohler and this race is well short of his best trip.

Fiorente managed to win this race before going on to take the Group 1 Australian Cup and that is the route sketched out for Protectionist. Lees has also drawn up a Plan B if the five-year-old proves ineffective at middle-distances with the $1millon Sydney Cup in April as an alternative target. The horse most likely to beat him for speed on Saturday is Paul Beshara’s Happy Trails, three times a Group 1 winner at or around Saturday’s distance.

He won the Mackinnon Stakes and will be sharper for his run earlier this month when staying on into sixth in the CF Orr Stakes.  He has reportedly been working brilliantly since and carries maximum stable confidence this weekend.

Atmospherical could provide Craig Williams with a victory in the Oakleigh Plate after being drawn in barrier 4. The well-fancied Vain Queen and Earthquake are feared most and should be competitive from barriers ten and eleven respectively. Earthquake is unbeaten in three starts at Caulfield and usually runs well fresh.

Atmospherical is a daughter of Northern Meteor and was last seen finishing third to Chautauqua in the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes. That was her first at this distance in five starts and she can reverse the form with runner-up Flamerge who has a nightmare draw in barrier 17.

Fontiton is all the rage for the $1million Blue Diamond Stakes after being drawn in barrier one. Robert Smerdon’s filly will be trying to become the fourth consecutive filly to win this race on Saturday and will be difficult to peg back.

The one that could give her a run for her money is Pride Of Dubai, supplemented at the cost of $55,000 after finishing second in the Group 3 Blue Diamond Colts & Geldings Prelude. He was beaten by Of The Brave (drawn 9) with Sampeah in behind in third place. The son of Street Cry looks to have every chance from barrier five.

Caulfield Saturday

Happy Trails (race 6) @6.0 Bet365

Atmospherical (race 7) @10.0 Bet365*

Pride Of Dubai (race 8) @5.50 Sportsbet

*Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Caulfield Guineas Preview

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It is Guineas weekend at Caulfield and the big race is preceded by the Thousand Guineas on Saturday.

The Melbourne Racing Club’s decision to move the Group 1 Thousand Guineas to the Saturday is looking questionable after only eleven runners were declared. The option for runners from the Flight Stakes to run here has been virtually removed with only a week between races.

The favourite here is Go Indy Go, winner of last season’s Group 1 Champagne Stakes at Randwick. Lumosty won her maiden race by nine lengths and has been all the rage this week with Craig Williams on board. Bring Me The Maid looks well drawn in barrier four and Peter Moody is hoping for an improved display in first-time blinkers after the filly flopped in the Guineas Prelude.

The winner that day was Afleet Esprit who could provide Damien Oliver with a sixth Thousand Guineas victory. David Hayes and Tom Dabernig’s star filly has only been out of the frame once in six starts and looks better value than the favourite.

Rich Enuff is the one horse that punters want to know in the Caulfield Guineas and his price has contracted to around 5-4 despite a wide draw. The son of Written Tycoon has not been prevented from winning in his last two starts by a similar disadvantage and has plenty of speed from the gate.

Gai Waterhouse has been quite bullish about the prospects of Almalad this week but she must have been disheartened to learn of his draw on the wide outside in stall 13. Almalad has chalked up victories in the J.J. Atkins Stakes at Eagle Farm and the Bill Stutt Stakes at Moonee Valley. Waterhouse is confident that he will prove good enough to take his chance in the Cox Plate but he will need to run a big race on Saturday to win from his draw.

Looks Like The Cat has finished runner-up to Rich Enuff on his last two starts and should run his usual game race but the one I think that could cause an upset is Shooting To Win. He was very impressive when beating Scissor Kick by three lengths in the Group 2 Stan Fox Stakes last time out. Barrier eight puts him on the inside of the fancied horses and he should be able to stay clear of trouble.

Shooting To Win (Caulfield Guineas) @7.50 Sportsbet

Afleet Esprit (Thousand Guineas) @6.0 Sportsbet

Moir Stakes Preview

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Lankan Rupee bids to restore his tarnished reputation in the Group 1 Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley following his shock defeat in the McEwen Stakes.

His conqueror Angelic Light is among just four rivals for the 1400m event with Lankan Rupee a long odds-on favourite to gain his revenge. The son of Redoubte’s Choice remains the highest rated sprinter in the world and some impressive track work earlier in the week has convinced connections that he is ready to return to winning ways.

Mick Price’s stable star was suffering only the second defeat in seven career starts in the McEwen Stakes. There were slight concerns about the gelding’s fitness before the race and it may be that he was simply a gallop short. Price was delighted with his work on Monday morning when easing clear of stable companion Lion Of Belfort over 1000m.

Lankan Rupee’s victories in the Oakleigh Plate, Newmarket Handicap and TJ Smith Stakes completed a Group 1 hat-trick and elevated him to the top of the sprinting tree. Jockey Craig Newitt has been in the saddle for all bar one of his races and rode Samaready to win this race a year ago for the same trainer.

Robbie Griffiths produced Angelic Light for a 20-1 shock but the five-year-old mare will surely struggle to confirm the form over the longer distance against a race-fit favourite. Buffering won the Moir in 2012 and finished runner-up last season. Robert Heathcote’s gelding has not won since November but was only two lengths adrift of Lankan Rupee in the TJ Smith Stakes at Randwick in heavy ground. This will be his first run since May when third in the Doomben 10,000.

Rebel Dane also has a Group 1 to his name having claimed the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last year. He has ground to make up on both Lankan Rupee and Buffering on form and a place looks the best Craig Williams can hope for here.

There is no value to be had by betting on Lankan Rupee but Sunday’s Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes at Caulfield looks far more open. Peter Moody’s Dissident tops the market after back-to-back Group 1 victories. He looks to have secured a perfect pitch in barrier five for Luke Nolen.

The big danger could be Sweet Idea who swerved a clash with Lankan Rupee in the Moir Stakes for Gai Waterhouse. She was beaten by Dissident and there seems no obvious reason why she should gain her revenge here. Surprisingly, the two are very closely matched in the betting and Dissident offers much the better value.

Dissident – Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes @7.0 Sportsbet

Memsie Stakes Preview

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The Memsie Stakes at Caulfield is the first Group 1 of the new season in Australia. A top quality field of eleven horses have been declared for the $400,000 prize.

This race is regarded as the first serious trial for races like the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate later in the season. Puissance De Lune was favourite for the Melbourne Cup this time last year but he has not won in any of his last six races.

He was beaten a head by Happy Trails in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington in October. Silent Achiever stayed on into sixth place that day and all three are set to start on Saturday. Happy Trails went on to be beaten a short head by Shamus Award in the Cox Plate and made his first appearance of the season in the Group 3 Spring Stakes. The seven-year-old was beaten nearly five lengths into fifth but should be fitter for the race.

The race that probably holds the key to the outcome here is the Group 2 Missile Stakes at Royal Randwick. Gai Waterhouse won the race with Sweet Idea who held Messene by a head with Boban finishing strongly in fourth.

Both the runner-up and the fourth are back for another crack at the winner having side-stepped last week’s Warwick Stakes. Glyn Schofield missed the break on Boban at Randwick and he is my idea of the winner here. A nine draw is not ideal but Sweet Idea is drawn wider still in ten. Craig Newitt will probably chase her out early to get a position and Boban should be able to track her through.

Boban won four consecutive races last season including two Group 1’s. He added a third win in the highest grade when winning the Chipping Norton Stakes in March. He lost his way afterwards but looked to be on the way back in the Missile Stakes.

Team Hawkes are optimistic of a big run from Messene who is handily drawn in barrier four. Peter Moody’s Moment Of Change was a close second to Hard Stride in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes at Caulfield last time out. He has three course and distance victories to his credit with the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, Orr Stakes and Futurity Stakes. He is another who likes to be up with the pace early on and will probably be vying for the early lead with Sweet Idea.

Silent Achiever has not run since finishing fourth in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Royal Randwick in April. She had a recent barrier trial over 1100 metres and should not be far away while

Super Cool finished third behind Atlantic Jewel in this race a year ago. He has not raced since finishing ninth in the Melbourne Cup and will probably need the race.

Boban SP @Paddy Power

PB Lawrence Stakes Preview

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Saturday’s Group 2 P.B. Lawrence Stakes sees the eagerly awaited return of Puissance De Lune. The galloping grey won this race last year to cement his position as favourite for the Melbourne Cup but things did not go his way during the course of the season.

His ran well in defeat in the Makybe Diva Stakes and the Turnbull Stakes and many still had faith in him for Flemington until he was struck by injury on his fourth start. At first it was thought that he was simply lame but scans revealed lesions on both front tendons. For a while it seemed that we may have seen the last of him on the racecourse but connections have brought him back in search of a Group 1 victory.

Their target is the Makybe Diva in which he was narrowly beaten by Foreteller last season. Reading between the lines, he is expected to need this race and they would be delighted to see him finishing strongly in the first four or five. The bookmakers aren’t taking any chances by chalking him up at around 2-1 but there must be better value elsewhere.

Foreteller also suffered an injury when disappointing in The BMW at Rosehill Gardens and he is another on the road to recovery for Chris Waller. Blarney Stakes winner Lidari usually goes well first time up and Peter Moody has entered him in the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate. He is quite short in the betting at around 4-1 and I prefer the claims of former UK middle-distance performer Spillway.

Spillway joined David Hayes after running well in Group 2 and Group 3 races, notably when placed in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. He also ran creditably when fourth to Telescope in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. He won his second start in Australia in the Group 3 Japan Racing Association Plate at Royal Randwick in April. His fitness is also open to question.

A couple who are race fit are Gig and Zamorar. Gig was second to Thiamandi at Caulfield last month in the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes and could again sneak into the frame. Zamorar was third to Tiger Tees in the Group 3 Aurie’s Star Handicap last weekend under Katelyn Mallyon. The young jockey is looking for her first taste of Group race victory and could be in the money with fitness doubts over so many of her rivals.

Zamorar @8.0 Ladbrokes

Gig @15.0 Ladbrokes

Each-way 1/5 odds, 1,2,3