Racing Preview Saturday Sep 20th

The Ayr Gold Cup is the highlight of UK racing on Saturday and this week’s results at the course suggest that a high draw is a big advantage. No horse drawn under ten made it into the first ten home in Friday’s Bronze Cup so there are likely to be a lot of jockeys edging to their right tomorrow.

One who does not have to worry is Amy Ryan who rides recent York winner Blaine. She is drawn in stall 26 so should be able to track along the stands rail to deliver her challenge. Blaine was a promising two-year-old but has had injury problems down the years and is only starting to fulfil his potential.

As you would expect, this is a wide open race and others to look out for could include Go Far and Hawkeyethenoo. Go Far didn’t run badly at all last time in a hot sprint after rattling off a hat-trick while Hawkeyethenoo may be getting a bit long in the tooth but was not beaten far at Ascot last time. He may just be finding six furlongs on the sharp side these days.

Amy also has claims in the Silver Cup with Bogart who is similarly well drawn in stall 25. He has a similar profile to Blaine and ran his best race for some time when chasing home Muthmir in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster. He must have a chance on that form but looks quite high in the weights.

The same applies to Redvers who looked certain to win at Ascot over seven furlongs last time out but was collared by Safety Check. He has got a visor on for the first time in an effort to sharpen him up for this six furlong dash.

A 13 draw is not insurmountable but I just prefer Majestic Moon from stall 24. Richard Fahey is mob-handed in the sprints but this course and distance winner stays seven furlongs and likes to race up with the pace. Lexington Abbey and Huntsmans Close are others with a good draw but the bookmakers have trimmed their prices accordingly.

Winners look very hard to find on Saturday but I am interested in the claims of Air Pilot at Newbury. I don’t know why the five-year-old has not run since finishing second to Farraaj at Epsom but he has presumably had his injury problems with only four career starts. I tipped him at Epsom and he beat all bar the well-handicapped Farraaj by seven lengths and is only up 4lbs. Oison Murphy looks a significant booking and it is worth taking a chance on his fitness.

Majestic Moon (each-way) 2.40 Ayr @16-1 Bet365

Blaine (each-way) 3.50 Ayr @12-1 Paddy Power

Air Pilot 2.55 Newbury @9-2 BetVictor

Ascot Victoria Cup Preview May 11th

After the tight turns of Chester we are back to a straight seven furlong contest at Ascot for the feature event on Saturday. The Victoria Cup is a competitive handicap with a maximum field of 29 runners with the bookmakers going 10-1 the field on Thursday.

The obvious market leader is Newbury Spring Cup winner Haaf A Sixpence. He tracked front-running Dream Tune through the first seven furlongs before going on to grab the spoils. The race looked top class with several of the Lincoln runners finishing behind him and it was a game effort. His style of racing suggests that the drop back to seven furlongs won’t inconvenience him. He has been given a 5lb penalty for that success and looks sure to run well although he may find Dream Tune harder to pass this time.

Dream Tune has been tried over a variety of distances from six to ten furlongs by Clive Cox but that latest run suggested seven furlongs could see him at his best. He has been drawn in stall two so you would expect him to bounce out and race prominently as he did at Newbury. Ryan Tate has been booked and takes off a handy five pounds, putting him 10lb better off at the weights with Haaf A Sixpence. He only weakened in the closing stages at Newbury and lost two places in the final 50 yards so it is not difficult to imagine him playing a prominent role over a shorter trip. At 16-1 he must have each-way claims.

Another leading contender is the progressive four-year-old Tartiflette who ran out an impressive winner at Haydock without her rider having to resort to the stick. She had Cape Classic and Highland Colori behind her that day and she looks capable of confirming the form despite a 6lb rise in the weights. Charlie Hills is making a good job of stepping into his father’s shoes and was unlucky not to win the 1000 Guineas last Sunday with Just The Judge. He saddles Glen Moss who ran on well at Kempton on the all-weather last time and looks capable of picking up a decent handicap this season.

With the draw certain to be a factor, it may be worth hedging your bets with a runner on each side and I’m keen on the chances of Ascot regular Lightning Cloud. Kevin Ryan’s consistent grey ran at this venue four times last season including when fifth in this race and a close third over the same trip in October. He runs particularly well for Amy Ryan and looked a certain future winner when finishing a close third at Thirsk on his seasonal debut. He looked to have plenty of ground to make up turning for home but was flying at the finish and would have got up in another couple of strides. He should be spot on for Saturday and 14-1 looks an attractive each-way price.

There are plenty of dangers including Jamesie who ran well in a couple of big handicaps last season and will have been sharpened up by his head defeat at Dundalk. I shall stick with Lightning Cloud and Dream Tune against the field.

Lightning Cloud (each-way) 14-1 Bet Victor
Dream Tune (each-way) 16-1 Skybet