It’s certainly too early to call this weekends’ showdown between Manchester City and Chelsea a “title decider”. Despite this, we will still be able to gain some important indicators from this match as to who the likely champions will be. We have a lot more data to go on when it comes to predicting the champions than we had back in August. For example, Manchester United will clearly not be champions this season, and we don’t need to wait until it is mathematically certain to see why.
When Statistics Reveal the Answers
Quite often, statistics get to the very heart of the matter and reveal the truth. The league champions usually finish with a total of around 85pts. The points’ totals of City, Chelsea and Liverpool so far clearly indicate that this figure will be reached this season. United have 20pts from 13 games. Clearly, given their current level of performance, they will not amass 65pts from their remaining 25 matches. So what do the statistics reveal for the Manchester City vs Chelsea encounter?
Chelsea made a solid start to the season in August. They won all three of their league games. Looking back on these three games and how they played out revealed that all wasn’t well with the Chelsea system. All three of Chelsea’s opponents were relatively weak and this papered over the cracks. This led to a poor September where Chelsea only took one point from a possible nine. A home defeat to Liverpool and a 3-0 defeat at Arsenal highlighted the shortcomings in the Chelsea team.
The Trend is up
Analysing form in football betting usually means looking at trends. Chelsea had a total of 10pts from six matches after September. Since then they have taken maximum points from seven matches. This includes wins over Manchester United, Everton and Tottenham. Antonio Conte has turned things around very rapidly. They are becoming very difficult to score against and should they win at the Etihad this weekend, they will become serious title challengers and favourites.
The current trend is favouring Chelsea, and Manchester City’s recent form has been patchy. If we take away the great start to the season by City and the mediocre one by Chelsea then the difference in their recent form clearly gives the Blues a significant edge. Manchester City can be backed at 11/10 with Bet365.
Their recent home draws to Southampton, Everton and Middlesbrough seem to indicate that 11/10 is too short. Far too short when you consider that the visitors are possible champions elect. Stan James offers 13/5 on the draw with Betfred quoting 5/2 for a Chelsea win. Both teams may be happy with a point and so the value bet seems to indicate the draw at 13/5.
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
