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The Year of the Dark Horse: Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies

By James Ng

If ever there was a year for an unlikely champion, then this is the one. The defending champions in San Antonio aside, there are no great teams out there. There are only advanced projects or former contenders on the verge of collapse. 

Cleveland is still finding itself and Oklahoma City might not even make the playoffs after crushing injuries to superstar tandem Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Chicago Bulls are held hostage daily by Derrick Rose’s endless injuries and the league-leading Golden State Warriors are very, very good, but untested. 

In short, this is an NBA season lacking in established greatness. This makes our Western Conference matchup of the week between the Dallas Mavericks and the Memphis Grizzlies all the more compelling. Here we have a pair of dark horses with an actual chance of lifting the trophy in June.

Who are they?

Dallas shocked the world by winning the NBA title in 2011 and rolling over the LeBron-led Miami Heat. Since then, they’ve surfed wave after wave of mediocrity. But this season, they are back. With 2011 championship center Tyson Chandler reuniting with Dirk Nowitzki and elite head coach Rick Carlisle in Dallas, they have rediscovered their hunger. They have dynamic creativity on the wing with a more efficient Monta Ellis, they have great shooters to spread the floor and in Chandler, they have their elite defensive anchor back where he belongs. We haven’t been able to say this since 2011, but the Dallas Mavericks are good. 

However, they still can’t defend consistently at an elite level.

The Memphis Grizzlies are no pushovers. They are the last team in the NBA to play old-school physical 1980’s basketball with two dominant low post beasts in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. It’s a fearsome big man tandem, coupled with one of the most underrated point guards in the league (Mike Conley) and a defensive wing terror in Tony Allen. 

They crush, they grind and they torture you to death. They are also playing outstanding basketball and are tied for the league’s second best record. 

However, they sometimes struggle to score enough points against athletic shooting teams that spread the floor. Teams just like Dallas.

The Past Five Games – a Snapshot:

Dallas: 4-1 in last five games; 116 points per game (ppg), 111.4 opponent’s ppg (oppg)

Here we see a typical Dallas. They can score and score but they failed to hold any team under 100 points in the past five games. During that stretch, they played the historically bad Philadelphia 76ers and the raw Milwaukee Bucks (twice), and that is alarming. If Dallas is to beat Memphis, it will be through the offensive end.

Memphis: 3-2 in last five games; 101.8 ppg, 96.6 oppg

Yes, they can defend. However, their two losses in the last five games were against Houston and San Antonio, both Western Conference powerhouses who scored over 100 points on Memphis. 

This is telling because Memphis struggles to contain teams that spread the floor, move the ball fast and run lots of high pick and rolls (often with three-point shooting power forwards). Houston and San Antonio both play this style. 

But crucially for our purposes today, the Dallas Mavericks also play like this. It is likely Memphis will struggle to hold Dallas under 100 points.

Key Matchups:

Who will guard Dallas legend Dirk Nowitzki? His elite perimeter shooting at the power forward position means that Zach Randolph will be doing a lot of something he hates: chasing mobile shooters around the perimeter. True, Randolph can use his size and brute strength to beat Nowitzki down in the low post on offense, but Dallas has the upper hand in making Randolph pay the price on defense.

The second key matchup will be how successful Tony Allen, an elite hard-nosed perimeter defender for Memphis, will be in guarding the explosive Monta Ellis. Expect Ellis to struggle some with Allen all over him, but he’s smart enough to play the decoy to perfection.

The X-factor:

Memphis’s Vince Carter may not be “Half-Man, Half-Amazing” anymore in his twilight years, but boy has he developed into a consistent and threatening wing shooter. If he goes off against his old team, he could singlehandedly swing this matchup in the Grizzlies favour.

The Pick, the Spread and the Money Lines:

Memphis is a -3.5 point favourite to win this game, which means they must beat Dallas by at least four points to cover the spread. Or if you bet on Dallas (+3.5 points) to cover the spread, then the Mavericks must either win or lose by 3 points or less for you to cash in. 

This is an early season matchup that is unusually important, psychologically. We expect a tough and close game, which would usually favour the slow grind that Memphis thrives in. 

However, Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle is one of the best in the league and a champion both as a player and coach. If anyone can exploit Memphis’s greatest strength – their size – and turn it into a weakness, it is Rick Carlisle.

Such a close matchup makes choosing a spread winner difficult (especially at identical -110 odds for both teams), so I’d look to bet for an outright winner (if available). If so, I’d bet according to the money line and which team is the odds underdog. 

And that team is the Dallas Mavericks. They are the exactly what Memphis struggles with most. They have an elite defensive center to hassle Marc Gasol with. They have a championship coach who will exploit Memphis’s matchups and turn their strengths into weaknesses. And they have their hunger back.

From bookmakers still offering an outright winner for this game, Dallas is a more sensible bet even though the odds are shortening. It should be a close game. So, we look to where we can risk less to win more, and in this case it would be the slight underdog Dallas Mavericks.

Skybet: Memphis outright win: 8/13; Dallas outright win: 11/8

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