Tag: Simenon

Royal Ascot Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It may seem a bit early to be thinking about Royal Ascot but the bookmakers have already started pricing up many of the races. The perils of ante-post betting were illustrated this week when the ground at Haydock was considered too fast for my two leading fancies in the Silver Bowl. From my vantage point in Scotland I must admit that I had never even considered the prospect of firm ground! Hopefully there will be no such concerns for the Royal meeting next month.

My first dabble in the ante-post market is on the Ascot Gold Cup. There does not appear to be an outstanding stayer about at the moment. So far this season we have seen an impressive win for the Queen’s Estimate and a shock winner of the Yorkshire Cup. But the one to catch my eye is Irish raider Simenon.

Last year, Simenon notched two victories at the Royal meeting and is now ready to step up from handicap class to the stayers’ championship. He took his chance under 9st 10lb in the Chester Cup and endured a nightmare run under Johnny Murtagh. Held up towards the rear, he bowled around on the inside but could not get out in time to catch the leaders. He made up plenty of ground in the straight and flew home in fourth. It takes a good horse to lump that sort of weight around in the Chester Cup and, if he arrives at Ascot in the same form as 12 months ago, 16-1 could be good value.

My second selection is Chapter Seven in the Royal Hunt Cup. These mile handicaps can take a lot of sorting out and the draw often comes along to scupper the best laid plans. However, Chapter Seven is available at 20-1 and is worth a punt at those odds. He has caught the eye by staying on at the end of all three starts this season, notably when an unlucky third in the Newbury Spring Cup. He had previously been sixth in the Lincoln and deserves to pick up one of the big prizes.

My third selection is for the Wokingham Handicap. Admittedly a sharp pin on the day of the race is sometimes as good a way as any to solve this particular puzzle but I’m prepared to take a chance with Jeremy Noseda’s Nocturn. He was just denied at York last time out when he was caught by a horse flashing home on his outside. I felt that he was a little unlucky there and could still be improving.

Royal Ascot

Simenon Gold Cup 16-1 Coral
Chapter Seven Hunt Cup 20-1 Totesport
Nocturn Wokingham 25-1 Coral

Chester Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The 2000 Guineas victory of Sheikh Mohammed’s Dawn Approach has certainly raised some interesting questions and the colt is now 7-4 favourite for the Derby. The major concern for his supporters is whether he will stay the extra half-mile and the decision to go to Epsom has been taken more on his style of racing than his pedigree. I remember Jim Bolger saying he was going to be a Guineas horse after he won the Coventry last season but no thought had been given to his prospects of staying a mile and a half. About three weeks prior to the Guineas the decision was taken to supplement him for Epsom and that now looks to have been a wise move.

One another point worth making is that he beat a 150-1 outsider at Newmarket and it appears we may have another season with one good horse and a lot of moderate ones. Camelot was head and shoulders above his contemporaries last season but he was bred for the Derby. It will be fascinating to see what the breeding pundits come up with in the build up to the Derby but I don’t think that I will be taking 7-4. I will be happy to see what emerges from the trials in the hope of grabbing some decent each-way value against Dawn Approach.

It remains to be seen whether there is a Derby colt on show at Chester this week but the opening day revolves around the Chester Cup. I must confess to have become something of a fan of Countrywide Flame since he won the Triumph Hurdle a couple of years ago. He showed that was no fluke when he ran a fine race behind Grumeti at Aintree and I have since tipped him ante-post for the Cesarewitch (second at 10-1) and the Champion Hurdle (third at 33-1). The old expression about following them over cliffs springs to mind but I cannot help but fancy him tomorrow.

His weight looks just about perfect, he has a good draw, has won over the course and acts on any going. The only question mark is whether or not his run in the Champion Hurdle took the edge off him. He did run disappointingly at Aintree last time and he is almost certainly due a rest after his fine hurdles campaign. I cannot get too excited about the 7-2 on offer but there may be some 4’s or better on the day.

Ile De Roi and Simenon appear to have too much weight whereas Tominator was disappointing over hurdles. He is closely matched with Countrywide Flame on their meeting in the Cesarewitch and would be an appropriate winner in the week that saw the passing of his legendary former trainer Reg Hollinshead. However, he was beaten a distance in this race 12 months ago and is not guaranteed to reproduce his Newmarket form. One horse that is capable of showing improved form is Theology, now in the care of Steve Gollings.

Theology was useful on the flat for Jeremy Noseda but his form tailed off and he was eventually sent to Gollings to go hurdling. He didn’t take to the jumping game and was not knocked about at Kempton on his return to the flat. He may have been laid out for this race and could run a big race at a decent price.

Countrywide Flame 7-2 Ladbrokes
Theology (each-way) 18-1 Paddy Power