AFL Round 7 Preview

Two months into the AFL season and we’re now starting to get a good handle of where the teams are at.  Fremantle obviously appear to be the team to beat, but with so many upsets thrown around last week, it’s getting harder to separate the mid table sides.  We’ll do our best to come back form our horror tipping show last week, and provide some better quality predictions this week in our AFL Round 7 Preview:

Essendon v North Melbourne

Essendon – $2.35

North Melbourne – $1.60

I doubt this one will be one for the purists but it is an important match for the two teams.  Essendon host North Melbourne in the Round 7 opener where both teams will be looking to stay in touch with the top 8 after up and down starts to the season.

North Melbourne are favourites on the back of their defeat of Richmond last week.  They should be too strong for an Essendon side that have gone backwards in recent weeks after a pleasing start to the season.  Although both teams are struggling to bring intensity in defence this season, their attack has also been disjointed so a winning score in the 80’s or early 90’s seems about right.

North Melbourne to win.

Adelaide Crows v St Kilda

Crows – $1.25

St Kilda – $4.15

Round 6’s surprise packages the Saints have it all to do against an Adelaide side that has been decimated by injury in recent weeks.  Both sides enter this one on the back of Round 6 wins.  As alluded to St Kilda recorded their biggest come from behind win in the history to beat the Western Bulldogs away from home. The Crows also enjoyed a win, their’s a comprehensive win over the Suns.

History is against St Kilda in this fixture.  They have lost their last four games against Adelaide, meaning it will take some special to overcome then on Saturday.  Perhaps the fact that the Crows are missing Rory Sloane is the slice of luck they need to in.

We doubt it.  The Crows to take this one out.

Hawthorne v Melbourne

Hawthorne – $1.08

Melbourne – $8.50

The Demons are about to see a demon unleashed on them this week.  Melbourne hosts an embarrassed Hawthorne side that suffered a shock loss to the Giants last week.  The result of which will be a revengeful monster that doesn’t bode well for Melbourne’s chances.

The Hawks very rarely suffer two losses in a row and despite still being without suspended duo Luke Hodge and Jordan Lewis should have too much firepower for their opponents.  If they win on Saturday it will be their 12th straight victory over the 15th placed Demons.

Hawthorne to get through comfortably.

Carlton v GWS Giants

Carlton – $2.70

Giants – $1.48

Carlton coach Mick Malthouse is under huge pressure to get a result in his side’s match with the Greater Western Sydney Giants on Saturday.  The three time premiership winning coach has been lambasted in the media throughout the week after Carlton’s loss to Brisbane last week.  Malthouse calls the media comments “unsavoury”, but the media and greater AFL public are likely to determine his employment status over the coming weeks, so a win on Saturday is probably more needed than any other win in his glittering coaching career.

The Blues were so poor last week.  The opposite of the Giants, who enjoyed a ten point win adjacent reigning premiers Hawthorne.  The Giants are in the unfamiliar position of favourites, and we’re a little worried how they’ll respond to that.

Therefore, we’re giving the Blues the win (in a risky tip).

Sydney Swans v Geelong Cats

Swans – $1.27

Cats – $3.90

The Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium presents a stern test for an improving Geelong side in Saturday nights penultimate game.  The Cats returned to some form by destroying high flying Collingwood with one of the best half of footy we’ve seen this season.

But, the Swans are in some quality nick too. Currently 4th on the championship ladder and having enjoyed a comfortable win in last week’s action against Melbourne, the Swans should be too much for Geelong.

Isaac Heeney’s forced injury layoff is the only change to the Swans side.  In his place Dean Towers in a move that shouldn’t affect the play of the team too much.

Sydney to win.

West Coast Eagles v Gold Coast Suns

Eagles – $1.10

Suns – $7.50

The Suns have never beaten the West Coast Eagles, a statistic that is unlikely to change at Domain Stadium on Saturday.  The Eagles are always a difficult proposition at home, and currently sit second on the AFL ladder despite many pundits assuming they would struggle this year after key retirements in the back field.

However, they have proven themselves to be finals contenders with key wins in four of their last five games.  The Suns best chance of causing an upset is through the middle of the paddock, however that’s hard to fathom given the relative inexperience of their midfielders.  Gold Coast were better than the 31 point losing margin suggested last week but will find their Round 7 opponents too tricky.

West Coast to remain in the competitions top three with an easy win.

Western Bulldogs v Fremantle

Bulldogs – $3.65

Fremantle – $1.28

Fremantle are not only the early leaders of 2015, they’re also the team to beat the entire year after putting together six wins from as many games to start the season.  Getting plenty out of stars Nathan Fyfe, Aaron Sandilands and David Mundy, Fremantle have already established an 8 point lead at the top of the ladder.

While other sides that were tipped for success in 2015 stumble through the opening rounds, the Dockers look untouchable.  That should hold even against a Bulldogs side that are the surprise packages of this year’s action.  It’s somewhat remarkable that an unbeaten side is still only at $1.28 to get the job done – a testament to the Bulldogs play.

The Western Bulldogs have gone 4-2 to start the season, and should have beaten St Kilda last week when they led by as much as 50 points before letting it slip.

While we think this will be close, we can’t see Fremantle losing.  Dockers to get up.

Richmond v Collingwood

Richmond – $2.05

Collingwood – $1.75

A strange game to predict features a Tigers side that were tipped to finish well inside the top 4 this season, but are now languishing in 13th, playing a Collingwood side who were pathetic in last Friday’s loss to Geelong.

Ordinarily we’d give this to Collingwood, however the pressure on both sides could result in some desperation that makes it close and difficult to determine a winner.

Players aside the major talking point of the match will be the tactics and performance of the two coaches.  Damien Hardwick in charge of the Tigers, and Nathan Buckley at the helm of Collingwood are both under pressure (more so Hardwick) and it will be interesting how they ask their chargers to play in this one.

We think Collingwood should be okay.  They’ll win in by 15 points.

Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide

Lions – $4.50

Port – $1.20

Brisbane enjoyed a win last week, their first of the 2015 campaign, but we can’t see them getting any points out of their Sunday showdown against the Power at the Gabba.  The Lions snuck a win over the under pressure Carlton side, mainly thanks to Tom Rockliff and new recruit Dayne Beams.

They’ll need plenty more out of their in form big men if the are to trouble a Power side who currently occupy 10th on the ladder with a 3-3 record.  That’s an okay return from a difficult opending draw, and they showed signs last week against the Eagles that they would compete with the better teams this year.

They were slightly unlucky to lose at home last week, however with Robbie Gray kicking goals for fun.  We think they’ll justify their favourite tags and beat the Lions.

 

AFL Round 6 Preview

Mothers Day and Footy are the two things to look forward to this weekend.  Let’s only consider the latter in our AFL Round 6 Preview

Collingwood vs Geelong Cats

Collingwood – $1.62

Geelong – $2.35

Round 6 begins with the in-form Pies taking on an improving Geelong outfit at the MCG on Friday night.  Fresh from a huge, Scott Pendlebury inspired win over Carlton last weekend, the Pies are expected to be too strong for the Cats in the round’s opener.  Collingwood look well settled in second place on the ladder and bast probably the most hype Brownlow Medal contender in their midst.

The Cats on the other hand look to be improving, and can rely on their impressive win over Richmond last weekend as inspiration for another upset.  They may still be contenders come September but appear to  lack the overall quality to post tow wins in a row.

Collingwood to take it out.

North Melbourne vs Richmond

North Melbourne – $1.60

Richmond – $2.35

11 plays 12 in a battle of underachieving teams in the rounds second match.  Blundstone Arena will host North Melbourne and Richmond, two teams who entered the season with some expectation but have so far failed to catch fire.  The poor starts make this Round 6 clash somewhat of a must win for both if either are to springboard up the leaderboard.  Titles aren’t won early doors but they’re certainly lost.

The Roos dominated this fixture last time they played, that’s why we’re backing them to get the job done again this week.

North Melbourne to win.

Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda

Bulldogs – $1.42

St Kilda – $2.85

The previously calamitous Western Bulldogs side has shocked the entire AFL community by putting their off season issues behind them and putting together some excellent on-field performances.  The Western Bulldogs find themselves in 3rd on the ladder after fairytale wins over the Crows and Swans.  The win over the Swans in particular was as impressive performance as we’ve seen from anyone over than Fremantle this year.

They’ll be too good for St Kilda who are looking a possibility for back to back wooden spoons after posting just a solitary win from their five games.  Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna return in order to help St Kilda halt the Bulldogs, but we doubt they’ll be able.

Western Bulldogs to win comfortably.

GWS Giants vs Hawthorn

Giants – $3.75

Hawthorne – $1.27

The Giants have come along way in their short AFL history and displayed some impressive form over the first four rounds of this years edition.  However, that run was abruptly halted when they were thrashed by the West Coast Eagles last week.  They mustered just 33 points, and now face the difficult task of tackling the reigning premiers.

Hawthorn haven’t reached the heights of last year’s Grand Final but are still handily placed in 3rd.  Having said that they lose a whole heap of experience this week with both captain Luke Hodge and vice-captain Jordan Lewis copping bans for nasty incidents last week.

They should still get up though.  Hawthorne to win.

Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows

Suns – $6.25

Crows – $1.12

There are not to many upset opportunities in Round 6.  Famous last words, but there really does not appear to be many viable contenders.  Certainly the Gold Coast Suns games against the Adelaide Crows isn’t one.  The Crows should be far too good for the Suns despite losing their last two after posting wins in their first three matches.

The Suns did enjoy a win last week – an impressive win against the Lions too – but are still missing Gary Ablett Jr and are likely to find the going too tough against Phil Walsh’s side.

After starting their season with three huge victories, the Adelaide Crows have now lost their last two. The Crows will be hoping to revive their early-season form when they descend onto Metricon Stadium to face the Gold Coast Suns, who will be brimming with confidence after notching up their first win for the season last week.

Adelaide to win.

Melbourne vs Sydney Swans

Melbourne – $5.00

Swans – $1.17

The Swans are through the back end of a rough couple of weeks that saw defeats at the hands of the Bulldogs and Fremantle and will now focus their attention on the 13th placed Melbourne side.  Melbourne have failed to record consecutive wins this season and have been given little chance by punters this week against last year’s minor premiers.

Expect Melbourne to play with plenty of energy and aggression as they look to unsettle the Swans and force them into nervy errors.  Bullying has also been the best approach against the Swans and the tactic is Melbourne’s friend on Saturday at the MCG.

Sydney should be able to withstand though.  They’ll take this one out.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 30 points.

Fremantle vs Essendon

Fremantle – $1.20

Essendon – $4.50

Fremantle have looked close to untouchable through five rounds of the competition with some going as far as saying it will take 15 rounds before they lose.  Although they are yet to be challenged this year, that unlikely situation could eventuate if the Bombers don’t stop them this weekend.

The Bombers sit in 9th and have gone from the scrappy to the sublime in their efforts this season.  Highlighting that point was their narrow win over St Kilda last week.  Their Round 5 opponents, are in imperious form, their dismantling of Melbourne last week is sure to send the shivers up their opponents.

Dockers to get home easily.

Carlton vs Brisbane Lions

Carlton – $1.25

Lions – $4.00

In yet another predicted one-sided matchup, Carlton host the Brisbane Lions to kick off Sunday’s AFL action.  The Blues come into this one without form of their side – they lost by 75 points last week.  But fortunately, the Lions are winless and have conceded almost double the amount of points as they have scored.

Carlton have not lost to the Lions in Melbourne since 2008 and we believe that trend will continue and heap the pressure on coach Justin Leppitsch.

Carlton by 20.

Port Adelaide vs West Coast Eagles

Port Adelaide – $1.20

Eagles – $4.50

The round concludes when Port Adelaide host the West Coast Eagles at the Adelaide Oval.  The ladder might suggest this will be a comfortable Eagles win, but their wins have come against weak opposition (including the Suns last week).  

They have a reputation as fine weather / weak opposition bullies, whereas Port Adelaide will provide a much sterner challenge.  Port Adelaide have won three in a row, and they are guaranteed to finish higher than their current ranking of 10th.

If there is to be an upset this round it could be courtesy of the Eagles, but we don’t think so.  We believe that the home advantage will be telling and pick the Port Adelaide by 20 points.

This Weeks Multi 

This week’s head to head multi pays a conservative $11.03.

Odds taken from William Hill Australia.