Will PSG Topple the Mighty Barcelona?

The Champions League is set to return after its traditional Christmas and New Year break. We have now reached the knockout stages. The pick of the last-16 ties is clearly between Paris St Germain and Barcelona. With the departure of several key players, PSG is no longer the force they have been in recent seasons.

Their league position sees them tied with Nice and three points behind Monaco. In recent seasons with the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic leading the line, they have been catering to the French title. Those days appear to have gone and this leaves this current PSG team as significant underdogs against Barcelona.

Spanish Clubs are Dominating

The big three of Spanish football of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid have been dominating the Champions League in recent seasons. Madrid lifted the trophy in 2014 and 2016 with Barcelona winning in 2006, 2009, 2011 and again in 2015. Meanwhile, Atletico has been beaten finalists in 2014 and 2016. There have been two all-Spanish finals in the past three seasons and only a fool would back against that again.

Barcelona with their triple strike force of Suarez, Messi and Neymar have proved tough to stop. However, they are struggling to keep pace with rivals Real Madrid in the league. So both Barcelona and PSG have dropped a level since last season. The first leg between PSG and Barcelona will be held in Paris. PSG must at least go back to the Nou Camp with a draw to have any chance.

Looking for the Best Bets

So just why do Barcelona win so many matches? The answer is obvious. Looking back through their matches this season and with the odd exception, they always score. Even in defeat they still manage to score. The basic fact of a football match is that if you can score, your opponents must score at least twice to beat you. This is why Messi, Neymar and Suarez have been such powerful acquisitions for Barcelona.

It is tough to see how PSG can stop Barcelona from scoring but two bets stand out above all others. The first one is the 11-10 offered by BetVictor for a Barcelona victory. Even as the away team these are good odds. The second bet is for Barcelona to be ahead at half time and at full time. Bet365 are quoting 9-4 for that bet.

The fact of the matter is that while both teams have slipped this season, PSG has slipped further. Barcelona has had several key losses this season and have been very un-Barcelona like at times. They will still have far too much for PSG and will comfortably go through over two legs.

Champions League – Bayern Munich v Barcelona

We correctly forecast a win for Barcelona with Neymar on target in the first leg of their semi-final against Bayern Munich. He was outshone on the night by Lionel Messi and Barcelona’s all-star line-up have one foot in the final as they prepare for the return leg on Tuesday.

It is probably dangerous to dismiss Bayern out of hand but the fact that they are 20-1 to qualify for the final says it all. Pep Guardiola undoubtedly had a game plan at the Nou Camp to stifle the Spaniards and hope to escape with a draw. That plan looked likely to succeed until the 77th minute when Messi opened the floodgates. A second goal followed from the Argentinian within three minutes before Neymar’s injury-time goal virtually sealed the tie.

Bayern Munich beat Barcelona 7-0 on aggregate two years ago but there seems more chance of that score being reversed than of Guardiola’s side reaching the final. A spate of injuries, notably to Ribery and Robben, has left Bayern looking a pale shadow of the side that were favourites for the Champions League only a few weeks ago. They have lost their last four matches without scoring a goal and there is no encouraging news on the injury front. It will still be a makeshift side that starts on Tuesday needing to score three times without reply to take the tie into extra-time.

By contrast, Barcelona have gone from strength to strength. They brushed aside Manchester City and PSG without ever looking in danger of defeat. They have found a way for Messi, Suarez and Neymar all to play in the same side and that is a fearsome front-line by any standards. In recent weeks they have beaten Getafe 6-0 and Cordoba 8-0.

Coach Pep Guardiola has dismissed rumours of a move to Manchester City in the Premier League and is contracted to stay at Bayern until the summer of 2016. Bayern had already wrapped up the Bundesliga prior to their recent run of defeats. Ribery, Robben, Alaba, Rode and Badstuber are all out and it is difficult to see anything other than a comfortable night for Barcelona.

Barcelona to win @13-8 William Hill

Bayern Munich 0 Barcelona 2 @17-1 BetVictor

Messi to score and Barcelona win @11-4 Paddy Power

Champions League – Barcelona v Bayern Munich Preview

The second Champions League semi-final gets under way at the Nou Camp on Wednesday night when Barcelona face Bayern Munich in the first leg.

Barcelona were knocked out by Atletico Madrid at the semi-final stage last year but arrive here in peak form with all three strikers performing well. They were priced at 6-1 at the start of this year’s tournament but have been steadily cut to clear favourite at 7-4 ahead of both Bayern and reigning champions Real Madrid.

The reason is their dominant displays against Manchester City and PSG where they looked relatively untroubled. Luis Suarez took a long time to settle into the side but he is now playing well alongside Lionel Messi and Neymar.  With an attack that sounds like someone’s “dream team”, it is no wonder that they are favourites to win the Champions League for a fourth time in ten years.

This particular tie has the added interest of Pep Guardiola returning to his former club, this time in charge of Bayern. Having led Barcelona to 14 trophies, he is better placed than most to discover a way of beating them. The big problem for Guardiola is his massive injury list which includes several key players. The absence of Arjen Robben has been particularly keenly felt in recent matches while Franck Ribery, Holger Badstuber, David Alaba and Sebastian Rode are all absent.

Robert Lewandowski scored twice in the remarkable 6-1 second leg win over Porto but he may be forced to play in a mask on Wednesday after picking up a facial injury.  Veteran striker Claudio Pizarro was called upon in the weekend defeat at Leverkusen and Bayern will be desperate to escape with a good result here.

Neymar scored in both legs against PSG and has now scored in six of his last seven matches. The Brazilian is clearly in no mood to be overshadowed by Messi or Suarez and could be worth a bet to open the scoring here. Bayern Munich conceded three times at Porto and there must be a real danger that they could be out of this tie before the return leg. Barcelona have won their last eight Champions League appearances and have averaged over two goals per game during that spell.

Barcelona to win @8-11 Ladbrokes

Neymar to score first @5-1 Paddy Power

Neymar to score and Barcelona to win @5-2 Paddy Power