New Zealand’s final round robin match of the Four Nations provides coach David Kidwell with a bit of a headache. On one hand, it would be tempting to give his players a rest ahead of an expected final against Australia. But on the other hand, the match may be the perfect opportunity to play some of his players into form and allow combinations to develop.
The players desperately seeking form include Isaac Luke, Shaun Kenny-Dowall and Thomas Leuluai. These three are critical in helping Shaun Johnson shoulder some of the creative workload, as the Kiwis simply look too predictable relying on Johnson to break the line, create overlaps or generally add a spark.
Luke needs to run the ball more, he ran just once against the Kangaroos. Kenny-Dowall’s been poor in the tournament, but at club level consistently breaks the line (9 line breaks, 112 tackle busts in 2016). And, Leuluai just needs to gel with Johnson in the way Kieran Foran does. Kidwell’s taken the opposite approach to Kenny-Dowall and instead of giving him the opportunity to find some form, he has dropped him altogether.
Historically, NZ struggle when they play without Simon Mannering and Kieran Foran, so they should use this match against Scotland as an opportunity to find a way to get it done without them. That means strong defence in the middle of the park, controlling the speed of the play, the ball, and a kicking game that is on both sides of the park.
Mind you, the talk of playing players into form and finding synergy are premature. They must win well to ensure an easy passage into the final.
Let’s take a look at the key talking points ahead of the Round 3 clash:
Teams
New Zealand: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Jason Nightingale, Solomone Kata, Gerard Beale, David Fusitu’a, Thomas Leuluai, Shaun Johnson, Jesse Bromwich (c), Issac Luke, Adam Blair, Manu Ma’u, Tohu Harris, Greg Eastwood, Te Maire Martin, Martin Taupau, James Fisher-Harris, Joseph Tapine, Lewis Brown, Jordan Rapana (two to be omitted).
Scotland: (From) Danny Addy, Euan Aitken, Sam Brooks, Danny Brough (c), Tyler Cassel, Lachlan Coote, Luke Douglas, Dale Ferguson, Ben Hellewell, Liam Hood, Ben Kavanagh, Kane Linnett, Frankie Mariano, Brett Phillips, Callum Phillips, Matty Russell, David Scott, Lewis Tierney, Adam Walker (two to be omitted).
Team Selection Talking Points
New Zealand:The Kiwis are likely to give four new players a taste of international football with David Fusitu’a, Te Maire Martin, James Fisher-Harris and Joseph Tapine all included in the game day squad.
In changes to the team that lost to Australia, one-test Kiwi Dallin Watene-Zelezniak will start at fullback, instead of Jordan Kahu. Jason Nightingale returns to the wing, pushing Gerard Beale to the centres and Shaun Kenny-Dowall out of the team.
Manu Ma’u and Greg Eastwood will start in the forwards instead of the rested Kevin Proctor and Jason Taumalolo.
Scotland:Senior leader Luke Douglas noted that a number of players were tending to injuries, so expect one or two changes to the team that pushed England close last week. No matter which players turn out we’re sure another dose of international football for the players will pay long-term dividends.
Tournament Form
New Zealand: The Kiwis started by beating England by one point before losing to Australia 14-8 last weekend. The Kiwis have been slow out of the starting blocks on both occasions, giving up early leads and momentum. They’ll be looking to rectify that in a game they’ll probably view as an opportunity to fine-tune ahead of an expected final next week. Although, that’s not a done deal. New Zealand will need to beat Scotland convincingly and hope England don’t beat Australia by a large margin.
Scotland: The plucky underdogs have shown glimpses of form in their first two losses. However, they’ve struggled to keep it up for the full eighty minutes. After losses by 42 points and 26 points respectively, Scotland hasn’t travelled badly, but they face an almost impossible task against a New Zealand team who have resisted the urge to rest players in their final game of the tournament.
Odds
New Zealand: $1.01 from all major bookmakers.
Scotland: $65 from Betfair.
Prediction and Tips
Points haven’t come that easily for the Kiwis in the Four Nations thus far, registering just 25 across the two games. However, against a relatively immature international team, Scotland expect there to be a few more opportunities to exploit. We like New Zealand by 41-45 – $11 at Sportsbet.
