Will week three of the Four Nations finally see the favourites dominant their opponents? Can Samoa scare a third straight team? Will England’s point deferential struggle let their game?
Those will be the key questions being answered in week three of the Four Nations. Let’s look at the two games.
New Zealand v England
The Kiwi’s shift venues form the beautiful afternoon sun in Whangarei to the closed roofed Forsyth Barr Stadium in Dunedin to take on the desperate English in the week’s first game. The game features and interesting test for mathematicians as they calculate the scenarios that will decide the Four Nations finalists. At this stage, if New Zealand win or draw they are through to the final; if they lose heavily then they need Samoa to get close to, or beat, Australia
Both teams met lady luck last week. The Kiwi’s escaped a stern Samoan test and were fortunate to cross for a late four pointer to win the duel for the fictional blonde in the green dress. England on the other hand got stood up; they narrowly lost to Australia thanks to a controversial final minute TMO decision.
Both sides have played some decent football in the Four Nations thus far. New Zealand’s best was missing last week, but they have added experience to that side by reinstating Thomas Leuluai and Greg Eastwood to the interchange bench. Isaac Luke will be better for last week’s hit out and he should be able to ignite the Kiwi’s play utilising the offloads of Bromwich and Blair and the rest of the hard running forward pack. However, their susceptible backbone has errors in them and will need to be at top form to control the exciting English equivalents.
The geezers have shown that they have improved since last years World Cup. In last year’s semi-final they suffered a last minute loss to the Kiwi’s and despite some reservations about their ability to close out games, I’m backing them to be right up for this challenge.
Key contributors James Graham and Gareth Widdop will look to exploit a soft New Zealand middle and error prone back three. In Ryan Hall and Josh Charnley they have two World class wingers who could benefit from the pressure instilled on the nervy Kiwis.
I’m picking an upset here. England by 6.
Odds
New Zealand $1.45
England $2.80
Four Nations odds courtesy of Sportingbet.
Teams
New Zealand: 1. Peta Hiku, 2. Jason Nightingale, 3. Shaun Kenny-Dowall, 4. Dean Whare, 5. Manu Vatuvei, 6. Kieran Foran, 7. Shaun Johnson, 8. Jesse Bromwich, 9. Issac Luke, 10. Adam Blair, 11. Simon Mannering (c), 12. Kevin Proctor, 13. Jason Taumalolo. Interchange: 14. Thomas Leuluai, 15. Greg Eastwood, 16. Martin Taupau, 17. Tohu Harris, 18. Lewis Brown (one to be omitted).
England: 1. Sam Tomkins, 2. Josh Charnley, 3. Kallum Watkins, 4. Dan Sarginson, 5. Ryan Hall, 6. Gareth Widdop, 7. Matty Smith, 8. George Burgess, 9. Josh Hodgson, 10. James Graham, 11. Liam Farrell, 12. Joel Tomkins, 13. Sean O’Loughlin (c). Interchange:
14. Daryl Clark, 15. Brett Ferres, 16. Tom Burgess, 17. Chris Hill.
Australia v Samoa
Samoa have been a revelation in the Four Nations thus far but I fear their energy may have already been consumed in their sterling efforts in weeks one and two. They should be no match for the World Champion Australian outfit, but they could still influence the finalists based on the points differential calculations.
Australia have been forced to reshuffle their back; Beau Scott forced out with injury and replaced by Josh Papalii in the run on side. While Samoa have opted for a tactical change and bring in nightclub troublemaker Reni Maitua. Expect the Aussies to be far too strong in this matchup. The structured play and kicking game of Cooper Cronk should force Samoa into mistakes. Of particular interest to a lot of pundits is the centre battle; Jennings and Walker v Lafai and Leila will be brilliant to watch.
Odds
Australia $1.09
Samoa $7.75
Teams
Australia: 1. Greg Inglis, 2. Josh Mansour, 3. Michael Jennings, 4. Dylan Walker, 5. Sione Mata’utia, 6. Daly Cherry-Evans, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Sam Thaiday, 12. Greg Bird, 13. Corey Parker. Interchange: 14. Boyd Cordner, 15. Robbie Farah, 16. Aidan Guerra, 17. Ryan Hoffman, 18. Ben Hunt, 19. David Klemmer, 20. Matt Moylan (three to be omitted).
Samoa: 1 Tim Simona, 2 Antonio Winterstein, 3 Tim Lafai, 4 Joseph Leilua, 5 Daniel Vidot, 6 Ben Roberts, 7 Kyle Stanley, 8 Isaac Liu, 9 Pita Godinet, 10 David Fa’alogo (c), 11 Frank Pritchard, 12 Leeson Ah Mau, 13 Josh McGuire. Interchange: 14 Dunamis Lui, 15 Reni Maitua, 16 Sauaso Sue, 17 Mose Masoe, 18 Jesse Sene-Lefao, 19 Tautau Moga (two to be omitted).
Four Nations odds courtesy of Luxbet.
