Black Caps Look Set to Send Bangladesh Home Winless

Bangladesh’s final match of their New Zealand tour at Hagley Oval is their last chance to take a win off the home side. It looks pretty unlikely though after they blew their chance in the first test after posting 595 in the first innings. A tour that has so far promised much but delivered little is likely to finish 8-0 to the Black Caps on account of the Bangladesh confidence being pretty low after squandering a nice chance in several games. Add to that a desire to get back home and it appears the Christchurch test will go the same way as the every other game between the two sides this summer. We’d love to be proven wrong, though; we’d also love to see an end to the short pitched bowling attack New Zealand so often employs.

The Series So Far

Game one was an instant classic. The draw looked likely for the first three days on account of Bangladesh’s record first innings score, however, a late day four panic, injuries to key players and some exceptional Mitchell Santner spell of bowling confined Bangladesh to another test defeat. The game had everything test cricket needs: runs, wickets, multiple storylines (short pitched bowling and concussion rules as applied to Neil Wagner and Shakib Al Hasan; Ross Taylor and Kane Williamson race to Martin Crowe’s century record). The Black Caps ultimately won by six wickets, chasing down 217 with 17 overs to spare

New Zealand accordingly leads the two test series one nil as it heads to Christchurch.

The Teams

New Zealand (likely):

1 Jeet Raval, 2 Tom Latham, 3 Kane Williamson (capt), 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Henry Nicholls , 6 Colin de Grandhomme, 7 BJ Watling (wk), 8 Mitchell Santner, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Lockie Ferguson / Neil Wagner, 11 Trent Boult

The only change being contemplated in the Black Caps set-up is swapping out Neil Wagner or Tim Southee for Lockie Ferguson. The change adds impetus to a bowling unit that struggled to take wickets in the first innings in game one. Ferguson’s raw pace could scare a Bangladeshi unit struggling against the short ball and help the Black Caps take twenty wickets much quicker than they achieved at the Basin Reserve.

Bangladesh (likely):

1 Tamim Iqbal, 2 Imrul Kayes, 3 Mominul Haque, 4 Mahmudullah, 5 Shakib Al Hasan, 6 Sabbir Rahman, 7 Nurul Hasan (wk), 8 Mehedi Hasan, 9 Mashrafe Mortaza (capt), 10 Mustafizur Rahman, 11 Taskin Ahmed

With Mushfiqur Rahman out of the test with a finger injury/concussion concerns, Nurul Hasan will make his test debut, just as he did in the ODI series earlier in the tour. While Mishfiqur is a massive loss, the addition of Mistafizur after the crafty left armer was given a rest for the first game in Wellington provides Bangladesh a massive boost.

The Key Players

New Zealand

The Black Caps don’t play a whole lot more test cricket this year. Sure, they host South Africa later in the summer, but then their attention turns towards limited overs cricket in England for the Champions Trophy. One player who therefore needs to take every chance he can get to solidify his place in the side is Henry Nicholls. Nicholls made 53 in the first innings in game one but never really looked assured. His innings summed up his career thus far: some potential, plenty of nerves and some glaring technical deficiencies. Time in the middle will help correct or mould all three of these traits and Nicholls must score runs to secure his long-term future.

Bangladesh

Without Mishfiqur, Shakib Al Hasan shapes up as the most important player in the tourist’s side. The world-class all round compiled a polished fifty in the first game but needs to turn that into a big hundred here in game two if his side is to have a chance. Shakib does need to be careful not to get too loose attacking the short ball. He appeared to get too hyped up flailing at the short stuff and needs to be more composed; picking the appropriate ball to go after.

The Match Odds*

New Zealand – $1.25

Bangladesh – $15

Draw – $5.50

*All odds courtesy of Bet365.

The Prediction

Bangladesh’s spirit may be broken after the devastating loss in game one. After dominating the opening two days the tourists were left red-faced in their second innings as they succumbed to nerves and injuries. It’s hard to see them bounce back from the defeat, so we’re predicting a big win for the Black Caps.

The Best Bets

Shakib Al Hasan looks good money to top score at $5. His first test double century (just the third double century scored by a Bangladeshi batsman) was all class and given the rest of his competition (within his team) are either injured, wounded or desperately out of form.

With two strings to his bow and both of them at their best at present, Mitchell Santner is a nice tip for Man of the Match honours. Santner scored runs in Wellington (despite not looking that comfortable against the short ball) and took wickets (second innings only), and could be a threat on a Hagley Oval pitch that should be pretty similar to the one served up at the Basin. He’s paying $15 to be Man of the Match.

Bangladesh Seek Improved Showing; NZ a Series Win

The New Zealand, Bangladesh ODI series moves to Nelson, to a pitch expected to be slower and lower than the Christchurch opener, and thus suit the slow bowling nous of the Bangladesh side. The slower pitch could also counteract the New Zealand short bowling tactic that was employed extensively in game one but made for boring viewing.

Here’s hoping for a closer game in Nelson, one that’s not dominated by bouncers:

The Series So Far

The Black Caps took game one in Christchurch by 77 runs after Tom Latham and Colin Munro took the game away from the Bangladeshis late in the first innings. Latham made 137 and Munro 87 to carry New Zealand to 341, which proved to be far too good. Bangladesh showed they wouldn’t fall over, but in the end, New Zealand’s sustained short bowling tactic managed to find their opponents fall short.

The Teams

New Zealand (likely):

1 Martin Guptill, 2 Tom Latham, 3 Kane Williamson (capt), 4 Neil Broom, 5 James Neesham , 6 Colin Munro, 7 Luke Ronchi (wk), 8 Mitchell Santner, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Lockie Ferguson, 11 Trent Boult

New Zealand is unlikely to make changes to the side that comfortably won game one. Tim Southee and Trent Boult are being rested later in the series so expect them to play again at the expense of Matt Henry and Colin de Grandhomme.

Bangladesh (likely):

1 Tamim Iqbal, 2 Imrul Kayes, 3 Mahmudullah, 4 Shakib Al Hasan, 5 Sabbir Rahman, 6 Mosaddek Hossain, 7 Nurul Hasan (wk), 8 Mehedi Hasan/Tanbir Hayder, 9 Mashrafe Mortaza (capt), 10 Mustafizur Rahman, 11 Taskin Ahmed

With Mushfiqur Rahman out of the series with a hamstring injury, Nurul Hasan will don the gloves. He’s likely to be joined by either Mehedi Hasan or Tanbir Hayde, either of which could replace the at risk Soumya Sarkar.

The Key Players

New Zealand

Given he’s only played three one-day internationals, it seems a little odd to be highlighting Lockie Ferguson, but New Zealand’s obvious tactic to bowl short at the Bangladeshi batsman means Ferguson is a critical cog in the Black Caps game plan. The right armer will be asked to bowl fast, short and threatening and when he does, he’s a chance to take a fist full of wickets.

Bangladesh

Without Mishfiqur, Shakib Al Hasan shapes up as the most important player in the tourist’s side. The world-class all round compiled a polished fifty in the first game but needs to turn that into a big hundred here in game two if his side is to have a chance. Shakib does need to be careful not to get too loose attacking the short ball. He appeared to get too hyped up flailing at the short stuff and needs to be more composed; picking the appropriate ball to go after.

The Match Odds*

New Zealand – $1.16

Bangladesh – $5

*All odds courtesy of Bet365.

The Prediction

Maybe not quite as dominant as they were in Nelson, but we’re still expecting another New Zealand win. The lower wicket will play to Bangladesh’s hands, which will make it closer, but not close enough to be an upset. New Zealand by four wickets or 30 runs.

The Best Bets

Colin Munro has already proven to be a handful for the Bangladeshi bowlers and there are not many New Zealand grounds that can contain him. He’s paying $8 to top score and he doesn’t need many balls to achieve that.

Shakib’s at $5.50 to top score for the tourists. He was good for some money in game one where we backed him to score fifty. Shakib top scoring could be on the cards.

If you’re looking for lower odds but something closer to unbackable, try Tim Southee scoring less than 41.5. He doesn’t have a hope of scoring that and it’s paying $1.83.

Cricket World Cup: India v Bangladesh – QF 2 Review

India rolled on to the semi-finals with another Cricket World Cup win; this time over a lacklustre Bangladesh side in Melbourne.

India’s seventh consecutive win was reserved, responsible, yet dominant.  Opting to bat first in perfect conditions, India took their time, kept wickets in hand and later accelerated to a post an intimidating 302 for 6 from their 50 overs.  In form openers Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan took full advantage of the quick outfield to get India off to the perfect start – 75 without loss – mixing power with grace, and respect for the occasional good ball.

Two quick wickets threatened to derail their momentum, especially as Virat Kholi who previously averaged 120 against Bangladesh was one of them.  Not to be deterred was Rohit Sharma, who orchestrated the rest of the innings with a special 137.  Joined predominantly by Suresh Raina, who pitched in with 65, Sharma made sure India had wickets in hand to accelerate and that India had a total capable of being defended.

Bangladesh worked tirelessly in the middle overs to restrict the scoring but found it nigh on impossible to stop a late assault that also featured a cameo of 23 not out by Ravindra Jadeja.

In reply, Bangladesh needed a strong start, and ideally, runs to Tamin Iqbal.  That would have eased the pressure on double World Cup centurion Mohammed Mahmudullah.  Unfortunately, two wickets in tow balls ruined the chances of a fast start, and effectively set the tone for a massive struggle.  Bangladesh never got going, never got in the game, and ultimately fell short by a massive 109 runs.  None of their players standing up with the bat, and even though they have held themselves well in the tournament and defied expectations, a disappointing exit.

The Bangladeshi’s will understandably focus on the tournament as a whole, as their captain, Mashrafe Mortaza did in the after match press conference when he declared it was a “brilliant tournament” for them.

Conversely, India look on course for a final spot the way they are going.  Their remarkable Australia turnaround continues.  Purely on the numbers their bowling attack is now more potent than New Zealand’s (based on the Bangladesh scored alone), something that could not have been said prior to the World Cup.  Their campaign is evidence of developing a winning formula and sticking to it rigidly to get the results.

India 302 for 6 (Rohit 137, Raina 65, Taskin 3-69) beat Bangladesh 193 (Nasir 35, Yadav 4-31, Shami 2-37) by 109 runs

Cricket World Cup: India v Bangladesh – QF 2 Preview

India have sailed through their six games at the Cricket World Cup thus far largely untested.  It’s a position of varying important depending on which way you look at it.  It’s either a sign of quality cricket, or its a sign that they haven’t been challenged enough, lack tough game practice and could slip up when the tournament gets interesting.

The opposite is true for Bangladesh.  Almost every game they have played has had the intensity of a knockout game.  In particular, their last two matches against England and New Zealand will have them well prepared for a tough Melbourne encounter against the tournament’s defending champions.

India look better in every department, however, Bangladesh will take solace from the fake they have already felled a giant in the 2015 World Cup, are relatively familiar with their Indian opponents and appeared comfortable outside of their home conditions for the first time in their short international playing career.

A semi-final in Sydney against the winner of the Pakistan / Australia quarter beckons for today’s winner.

The Last Time These Two Met

The BCCI rarely supports a series featuring their national team against Bangladesh, therefore, the teams haven’t met in an ODI for some time.  When they did, in June 2014, India ran out series winners by 2-0.

Tournament form may give a better indication of where the teams are at.  India are undefeated in six World Cup games; their biggest challenge coming from their final pool game against Zimbabwe.  Bangladesh won three of their Pool games with one match washed out.

The Teams

India (likely): 1 Shikhar Dhawan, 2 Rohit Sharma, 3 Virat Kohli, 4 Ajinkya Rahane, 5 Suresh Raina, 6 MS Dhoni (capt & wk), 7 Ravindra Jadeja, 8 R Ashwin, 9 Mohit Sharma, 10 Mohammed Shami, 11 Umesh Yadav

India are unlikely to disturb a well-settled and well-performed team unless absolutely necessity defines.

Bangladesh (likely): 1 Tamim Iqbal, 2 Imrul Kayes, 3 Soumya Sarkar, 4 Mahmudullah, 5 Shakib Al Hasan, 6 Mushfiqur Rahim (wk), 7 Sabbir Rahman, 8 Arafat Sunny/Nasir Hossain, 9 Mashrafe Mortaza (capt), 10 Rubel Hossain, 11 Taskin Ahmed

Mashrafe Mortaza was rested / injured against New Zealand, but he should return to lead the side.  The only other question mark is over the number 8 spot between Arafat Sunny and Nasir Hossain.  Nasir grabbed two late wickets against New Zealand and would strengthen the batting.  He would be our pick.

The Key Players

Mohammed Shami – In a team full of world class batsman it seems strange picking a seamer as the key player.  Shami, though, has been a key component of India’s success in the tournament, taking 15 wickets.  Against Bangladeshi batsman that push hard at the ball early in their innings and get unsettled by steep bounce, Shami’s one-two, short ball / full ball combo might be too much.  The Bangladesh top order looked susceptible against the New Zealand quicks and we thing Shami will enjoy boring to them too.

Mahmudullah – His two back to back World Cup centuries were equally as impressive in their proximity to each other, as they were to the manner in which they were scored.  After waiting 16 years for a World Cup century from one of their batsman, Bangladesh suddenly had two in four days, and both courtesy of the Mahmudullah.  While the consecutive centuries were a novelty, the way they were composed was anything but.  Mahmudullah scored his runs maturely, responsibly and attractively.  His approach to holding an innings together is something the Tigers have missed for years, but a trait that could serve them well today.

The Match Odds*

India – $1.14

Sri Lanka – $5.75

The Prediction

India’s ability to bully Bangladesh in the past is well known.  The passive bowling attack is exactly the type of fodder the destructive Indian batsman love to feast on.  There’s no fear.  We think that’s the reason they’ll get the better of the Tigers.  India by 70 runs or 5 wickets.

The Best Bets*

Mushfiqur has been in decent form in the tournament but has been overshadowed by Mahmadullah.  He’s at $6.50 to Top Score and a big chance.

Suresh Raina is coming off a hundred against Zimbabwe.  How about hime to top score and India to win t $8.50.

Thinking left field, what if India win toss, send Bangladesh in and bowl them out (they have taken 60 wickets in 6 games).  In fact either team to be bowled out in the first innings is paying $5.40.  Could be down to pure luck, but great money.

*Taken from Sportsbet.

Cricket World Cup: Day 27 Recap and Day 28 Preview

Day 27 Results

1. New Zealand v Bangladesh

Martin Guptill and the lower order helped New Zealand get past Bangladesh in their final Pool game of the Cricket World Cup, but only just.  Chasing 289 to win, the Black Caps looked to be cruising with Guptill and Ross Taylor controlling the chase, however, the brave Bangladeshi slow bowlers refused to give the game away and took it right down to the wire.  In the end, cameos from Corey Anderson (39), Daniel Vettori (16) and Tim Southee (12) were needed to see the locals home with seven balls to spare.

Bangladesh had earlier recovered from a poor first ten overs – they were 29/2 – to post an excellent 288.  That was largely thanks to Mohammad Mahmudullah’s second consecutive hundred.  His 128 was as good if not better than his previous knock against England.  If featured, nervy start, in which a couple f chances went down within his first few balls, but then controlled aggression and supreme patience.  He allowed others to build partnerships around him and later destroyed Mitchell McClenaghan in the final overs.

Bangladesh’s tactic of using slow bowlers to curb Brendon McCullum’s free scoring worked well.  Shakib bowled an opening over maiden and then removed McCullum and Williamson shortly after.  The plan was working and they should have been well on top had they reviewed an LBW decision against Guptill that went against them.  Guptill got to 100, Taylor to 50, and New Zealand seemed on course before allowing the late pressure to get a bit much for them.  Instead of cool heads, Guptill; Taylor; Elliot; Ronchi; and Anderson all went for wild swipes and perished.

And just when Bangladesh started to believe, Shakib, the hero of the innings with four important top order wickets, went for 12 to lose by 3 wickets.

New Zealand 289 for 7 (Guptill 105, Shakib 4-55) beat Bangladesh 288 for 7 (Mahmudullah 128*, Soumya 51) by three wickets

2. England v Afghanistan

The second match of the day was damp, dull and decidedly English in conditions and appearance.  Sydney’s persistent rain had reduced play to just 50 overs and reduced the crowd to a sparse smattering.  It was befitting of the England Cricket World Cup campaign that this was how it ended.  No bright lights, no powerful opposition and no fanfare.  Simply a final Pool game won comfortably against an associate nation.

All five bowlers took wickets for England, again there was no standout, and they chased their target of 100 easily.  Just one down, with runs to Ian Bell and Alex Hales.  Ian Bell scored another half century, his third of the tournament, but that just accentuates the problems with England.  Not enough hundreds, not enough wickets, no x-factor and carrying a captain averaging 19 in the tournament.

A comfortable win to finish for England, a disappointing final effort from Afghanistan despite bringing plenty of value to the occasion.

England 101 for 1 (Bell 52*, Hales 37) beat Afghanistan 111 for 7 (Shafiqullah 30) by nine wickets (D/L method)

Day 28 Matches

1. India v Zimbabwe

India – $1.10

Zimbabwe – $7.00

India will look to continue their unbeaten World Cup run that spans not only this edition but also 2011’s tournament.  Five from five this year and verging on ten in total, the Indians ave been mightily impressive, despite being given very little chance to do well at the onset.

So dominant have they been, they’ll relish a challenge and the chance to give more batsman game time if Zimbabwe can come to the party.  That could be too much to ask, but we hope not, especially for Brendon Taylor, who deserves a fitting farewell in his final match for Zimbabwe (he’s signed for Nottinghamshire on a Kolpack deal).

2. Australia v Scotland

Australia – $1.01

Scotland – $17.00

Australia will make short work of Scotland in the second of the day’s matches.  Scotland have been the biggest disappointment of the associate nations and you get the feeling they’ll just want to get home.  The only unanswered questions in this match are the size of the total if Australia bat first, the overs taken to chase down Scotland’s effort if they bat first, and whether Shane Watson will play (which might be a tip for who gets the quarterfinal spot).

Day 28 Multi

The Test Best Double

During the Australian Summer two batsman stood out amongst a number of fine efforts.  They were both captains of their sides at various times in the series and both made centuries for fun in the four test series.  That’s why we’re backing them to succeed today.

Virat Kohli to Top Score at $4.75 + Steven Smith to Top Score at $5.00 = $23.75

Odds from Unibet Australia.

Cricket World Cup Day 27 Preview

Not long now until the World Cup starts to get a little more interesting.  Until then, England and New Zealand are predicted to score comfortable wins in Hamilton and Sydney respectively.

Check out our review of today’s actions and the most pertinent questions heading into it:

The Three Big Questions?

Should Ireland be playing test cricket?

Ireland have again led the way of associate nations in this World Cup with a string of decent performances and three wins.  They’ll be pushing for a quarterfinal spot when they meet Pakistan on Sunday.  Whether they make the knockout stage or not they deserve to press their case for test status.  They certainly have the experience, the facilities and the talent to compete in the shorter format, but questions remain about their ability to last five days.  All but three of their squad have played for English counties.  Heck, even their number 11 averages 31.25 in first class cricket.  We support their inclusion on the basis that they start in a second tier comp and are not subject to top team humiliation (even though that’s how every team starts their test journey).

Are New Zealand disadvantaged having every pool game at home?

It sounds silly, but some commenters have argued that New Zealand will struggle with the bigger grounds and different surfaces in Australia if they reach the World Cup final.  Stepping out to a packed MCG could be overwhelming if they haven’t had to experience defending a total on the big ground, or been subjected to the inevitable sheep shagging jokes on the boundary.  Luckily, the conditions won’t be too dissimilar, and home advantage when the public is riding such a wave is more advantageous than not.

Shane Watson or Mitchell Marsh?

Watto will rightly play in the middle order for the rest of the tournament barring injury.  His experience is worth more than Marsh and offers a better bowling option.  Marsh did take five wickets in Australia’s opener but has since been ineffective with the ball in hand.  He must make way for Watson who revived his career with his knock against Sri Lanka.

Today’s Matchups

1. New Zealand v Bangladesh, Seddon Park (Hamilton – fine weather all day), starts 2:00pm local time

New Zealand – $1.12

Bangladesh – $6.25

You might not believe this but Bangladesh have won all of the last seven completed one day internationals against New Zealand.  Granted all of them were in Bangladesh, and when New Zealand were not at home, unbeaten in a World Cup. It’s still a damn fine record and will actually take some good cricket to put a stop to.  Shakib Al Hasan is the key to Bangladesh hopes.  He has an excellent record against the Black Caps and was surprisingly quiet against England.  Expect him to open the bowling to counteract the threat of Brendon McCullum.

Adam Milne is the only injury concern for New Zealand.  He may be replaced by Mitchell McClenaghan.

2. England v Afghanistan, Sydney Cricket Ground (Sydney – cloudy with chance of rain), starts 2:30pm local time

England – $7.00

Afghanistan – $1.10

Home-bound England must conjure up the energy to see off Afghanistan to end their World Cup campaign in style.  The English selectors may be tempted to usher in a host of new faces to plan for a post-enquiry future. That could mean more game time for Alex Hales and Chris Jordan.  James Tredwell could also feature on the traditionally turning Sydney pitch.

Afghanistan will also want to finish strongly.  Their quicks provide their best chance of springing a surprise, but they may be nullified by an unhelpful wicket.

Today’s Multi

The Shock “Bangladesh and Afghanistan Will Win” Mutli

Bangladesh outright at $6.25 + Afghanistan to Win (the toss) at $1.91 = $11.94

Odds available at William Hill Australia.