Grab yourself a pint, pick a side and get ready for some serious rugby betting action this weekend as four of the best Union-playing nations in the world battle for supremacy. The latest Rugby Union Championship action gets underway on October 8, and will see South Africa and New Zealand duke it out in Durban, while Argentina and Australia entertain at Twickenham.
As is often the case when these four rugby powerhouses meet, anything can happen. Indeed, ahead of what will inevitably be a physically taxing game against South Africa, New Zealand’s head coach Steve Hansen has made four main changes. With Waisake Naholo back from injury (for a fourth time), Hansen is hoping the Fiji-born winger can turn on the afterburners and expose a potentially sluggish South African defensive line.
Aside from bringing in Naholo to replace Julian Savea, Hansen is keeping his backline much the same, which seems to be a wise decision given how powerful it looked in the All Blacks 31-17 win over Argentina last week. Up the front, Matt Todd, Sam Whitelock and Jerome Kaino will all make a return to the starting line-up which should give New Zealand some much needed strength and experience.
While South Africa will want to try and ignore their 38% win ratio against New Zealand (35 wins from 93 matches), it’s hard to see how Allister Coetzee’s men get it done in Durban. Yes, home field advantage will certainly help. Yes, the Boks looked impressive as they beat Australia 18-10. But, with New Zealand enjoying a 16-game winning streak – a streak which includes a recent 41-13 win over South Africa – it’s hard to see how the Springboks get it done.
Sifting through the latest odds, 1/5 on a New Zealand victory is about as good as you’re going to get (Ladbrokes odds are slightly shorter at 1/6). However, if you’re willing to look beyond the obvious outrights, the following options should offer some added value this weekend; especially if you’re inclined to side with the experts and back a New Zealand win.
Ladbrokes:
Naholo or Dagg to score the first try = 9/2
New Zealand to win by 20 points or more = 5/2
New Zealand to win by 25 points or more = 9/2
Bet365:
Team with the highest scoring half: Africa = 3/1 – New Zealand 1/4
Bryan Habana to score first = 11/1
South Africa to score first and lose = 13/8
SkyBet:
New Zealand to win with -12.0 handicap = 10/11
Match to end in a draw = 25/1
South Africa first half/New Zealand win = 6/1
In the weekend’s other Rugby Union Championship match, Argentina will look to bounce back from a defeat to New Zealand and clinch a victory against Australia. By Aussie standards, the Wallabies’ recent run has been poor. A 3-0 whitewash against England earlier in the year, and just two wins from five Rugby Union Championship matches this season has put the pressure on coach Michael Cheika.
Age is certainly an issue for Australia which has forced Cheika to enact a major shakeup. When the side runs out against Argentina on Saturday, just seven players from the 2015 World Cup final will be on display. This kind of instability is always dangerous, and Argentina is a side that always poses a threat.
Essentially what this match comes down to is quality versus determination. Although Australia might not be at their peak, the pedigree speaks for itself, and that’s made them the betting favourites at 4/11 with SkyBet. Of course, a neutral venue and a touch of inexperience possible in certain areas for Australia, things could get tricky if the game wears on with little action. Indeed, this could be Argentina’s best opportunity to grind out a win for some time.
At present the odds makers at Ladbrokes and SkyBet seem to agree that 9/4 is the right line for an Argentina upset, while bet365 is currently running at 12/5. If we were to stick our necks on the line and pick two winners this weekend, it’s hard to see past the favourites. However, with changes seemingly the order of the day for New Zealand and Australia, there could be space for the underdogs to sneak in and steal the plaudits.
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
