Earlier in the week we previewed the Winter Derby at Lingfield and put our faith in our old friend Grandeur. Typically, he was promptly drawn 14 of 14, the worst possible stall.
Jeremy Noseda’s admirable grey suffered a similar fate at the Arlington Million last year and was always struggling to get into the race. Ryan Moore has the task of navigating his way through the field. That, combined with his first-time cheek pieces, certainly leaves him vulnerable but he is clearly the best horse in the race on form.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see bookies pushing him out to 2-1, in which case he would represent some value. Statistics suggest that a double-figure draw isn’t the end of the world over this distance at Lingfield with three previous winners of the race overcoming a wide berth. I would hope Moore will settle him in midfield rather than drop in behind because it can get messy on the home turn at Lingfield.
The other race on the card that looks worth a look is the Spring Cup. I’m very surprised to see William Haggas running his smart three-year-old Ertijaal here. The colt ran twice as a juvenile, running into none other than Toormore on his debut. That colt ended the season as top-rated two-year-old so it was a fine run to get within a quarter of a length of him. The pair of them drew seven lengths clear at Leicester over six furlongs.
He then broke his maiden over the same distance at Yarmouth, cruising clear of Exceeder to win by six lengths with Paul Hanagan easing him down inside the final furlong. There was nothing special about the form but he could do no more than win easily. I’m not sure why he did not race again after that but the fact that he still holds entries in the English and Irish 2000 Guineas suggests that he is highly regarded.
They say that lightning doesn’t strike in the same place twice but he too has been shunted out into the widest possible stall. With his limited racing experience, it is more likely to be an obstacle for him than to Grandeur. He is also yet to race on a turning track so Paul Hanagan will need to get him organised early on. There are some decent types up against him but it will be disappointing if he doesn’t win this. We’ll try a double and hope that Moore and Hanagan are on top form.
Ertijaal 3.15 Lingfield at 7-4 Coral
Grandeur 3.50 Lingfield at 7-4 Coral
+ win double
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
