Australia’s summer ODI tri-series traditionally features a three game final series and a much longer round robin format that gives a much better indication of form for the big final(s). This year though, in the absence of a protracted series on account of the Cricket World Cup, the final is a little harder to predict.
On the face of it, Australia have the upper hand after going through the tournament unbeaten until now. However, if Friday night’s match at the WACA was any indication, the pitch might have a few uneven demons that could even out the fixture. England’s familiarity with the surface could prove the only advantage they hold, that, or the weird phenomenon that sees Australia struggle after most Alan Border Medal ceremonies.
The Last Time These Two Met
Australia won both the round robin games against England. In the first match-up of the series in Sydney, England couldn’t recover from two wickets in the opening over and eventually lost by three wickets while trying to defend just 234. Seven days later in Hobart Ian Bell led England to 303 but once again they couldn’t stop Steven Smith (102*) and Australia running over them. England scored 303 against a much different bowling attack and given their top order stutters in other games it’s hard to see them getting near 300 again today.
The Teams
Australia (likely): 1 David Warner, 2 Aaron Finch, 3 Steven Smith, 4 George Bailey (capt), 5 Mitchell Marsh, 6 Glenn Maxwell, 7 Brad Haddin (wk), 8 James Faulkner, 9 Mitchell Johnson, 10 Mitchell Starc, 11 Josh Hazlewood.
Despite trialling a few different combinations in the series thus far, the Australian number one line-up is relatively settled. The side expected to play today is likely to be the side that contests the bulk of the World Cup games, save for Michael Clarke. Mitchell Johnson returns to action for the first time in the series.
England (likely): 1 Ian Bell, 2 Moeen Ali, 3 James Taylor, 4 Joe Root, 5 Eoin Morgan (capt), 6 Ravi Bopara, 7 Jos Buttler (wk), 8 Chris Woakes, 9 Stuart Broad, 10 James Anderson, 11 Steven Finn.
England will not make any changes to the side that has remained unchanged in their last three games.
The Key Players
Mitchell Johnson – Mitchell Starc’s success in the series – he has 12 wickets to top the wicket takers chart – shows just how lethal Australia could be with two genuinely quick left armers who swing it. Therefore, Mitchell Johnson’s inclusion is important to see how Australia’s game plan develops. i.e. is there room for another left armer in Faulkner? Will they play a spinner at all during the World Cup?
England’s Bowlers – Rather than single out one English bowler who has performed well in the series up to this point, and one that will take wickets again, we have chosen to earmark the pace quartet as being crucial to this match up. Finn has ten wickets for the series; Woakes eight; Anderson five; all averaging less than 23. Even Stuart Broad hinted at a return to form with two against India a few days ago for his first wickets in the series. On an uneven WACA wicket, these four could be crucial.
The Match Odds*
Australia – $1.37
England – $3.11
*Courtesy of Sportsbet Australia.
The Prediction
We’re giving England a chance only if they bowl first and take 3 or 4 early wickets. Otherwise, Australia have too much depth and should be too strong. Australia by 60 runs or 4 wickets.
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