Scotland Facing Massive Task in Four Nations Debut

The term David and Goliath has taken on new meaning in modern times. It’s now a familiar description of an underdog facing off against an unbackable favourite, and in the case of the Four Nations openers between Australia and Scotland, it is particularly apt.

The teams have never met before in international rugby league, however, the world rankings tell a pretty significant story. Top-ranked Australia, the current world champions, and two-time winners of the competition, are pitted against the 9th best team in the World; a team that hasn’t played in the competition before.

It looks to be an almighty task for little David.

Scotland qualified for the tournament for the first time thanks to their victory in the 2014 European Cup. They qualified by beating France, Ireland, and Wales who are all ranked above them in the world rankings. However, their task is considerably tougher this time around against even better opponents.

Let’s take a look at the key talking points ahead of the Round 1 clash:

Teams

Australia: Matt Moylan, Josh Mansour, Justin O’Neill, Josh Dugan, Blake Ferguson, James Maloney, Cooper Cronk, Aaron Woods, Cameron Smith (c), David Klemmer, Sam Thaiday, Tyson Frizell, Jake Trobojevic. Interchange: Jake Friend, Shannon Boyd, Trent Merrin, Michael Morgan, Valentine Holmes. (one to be omitted).

Scotland: Danny Addy, Dale Ferguson, Ben Kavanagh; Frankie Mariano; Luke Douglas, Ryan Brierley, Danny Brough (c); Adam Walker; Billy McConnachie; Liam Hood; Ben Hellewell; Sheldon Powe-Hobbs; Lachlan Coote, Kane Linnett; Euan Aitken; Matthew Russell; Sam Brooks; Lewis Tierney; Callum Phillips.

Team Selection Talking Points

Australia: As expected, Mal Meninga has handed a swathe of players representative debuts. Moylan, Maloney, O’Neill, Trobojevic and Friend will all suit up for Australia for the first time in a move that ensures that the entire Kangaroos squad sees some action in the tournament. The team is in no way demonstrative of a complacent attitude towards the Scots, rather it sets out the significant strength of the Australian 24-man squad.

Scotland: Crafty Matty Russell misses out to Coote at fullback, but has shifted to the wing to complete an impressive back three when premiership winner Lewis Tierney is added to the mix as well. The centre pairing of Aitken and Linnet is strong. And keep an eye out for Tyler Cassel who has been in and around the West Tigers set up for some time.

It’s a shame that Peter Wallace and Keith Galloway aren’t available.

Form

Australia: W, W, L, L, W, W

Scotland: L, L, L, L, W, W

Odds

Australia: $1.01 across the board.

Scotland: $41 at bet365

Prediction and Tips

There’s little chance of an upset in this one. In the four previous editions of the Four Nations tournament, no team out of PNG, Samoa, Wales or France has been able to get the better of one of the big three. Therefore, you might need to get creative if you’re going to take any money from your bookmaker in Four Nations betting. Consider the $1.90 on offer at bet365 if there is under 64.5 points scored in the game – as a comparison, in their last match against anyone other than NZ, Australia beat Samoa 44-18 (62 points). Or you can have a read through our preview of the New Zealand / England matchup and put together a higher paying multi bet.

Four Nations Defending Champions May Struggle to Keep Pace

New Zealand’s chances of defending their Four Nations rugby league title are looking seriously slim after the exit of long-term coach Stephen Kearney and a heavy warm-up loss to Australia. Here’s a look at all the teams involved and their chances:

Australia

Strengths: As far as spines go, the Australian set up is incredible. Smith, Cronk, Thurston and Boyd are all NRL premiership winners, and when they play together they are nigh on impossible to get the better of.

All are consummate professionals who pride themselves on error free play, quality decision-making and high involvement. Add Greg Inglis to the mix, and it’s hard to fathom how any side will beat them.

Weaknesses: It’s very hard to find weaknesses in a squad that features the likes of the above. But in Blake Ferguson and Josh Dugan, together making up the right-hand edge of the Australian backline, they have two hot or cold players that have struggled to make an impact at test level. The duo was dreadful against the Kiwis considering the amount of ball they had, and completely failed to exploit Solomone Kata on his NZ debut.

Star Turn: At just 21 yeas of age, Cronulla Sharks flyer Valentine Holmes is only just beginning his NRL and Test career. However, the influence the fleet-footed winger can have on the tournament stretches far beyond his relative inexperience. After making a promising debut, including a try, in the warm-up match against the Kiwis, Holmes is poised to set the tournament alight with his skill and speed.

The only possible saving grace for opposition teams is if Mal Meninga can’t find room for Holmes once Josh Mansour returns to the squad after missing the warm-up match because of his wedding.

Odds: $1.60 at Palmerbet.

Predicted Finish: Australia to win it. There is just too little chance that all of them have an off game on the same day.

New Zealand

Strengths: Big and mobile forward packs have always been part of the Kiwis game. 2016 is no different. The Kiwis pack boasts the likes of Dally M Medal winner Jason Taumalolo, NRL Prop of the Year Jesse Bromwich, and the reliable Melbourne Storm backrowers Tohu Harris and Kevin Procter. As a result, the Kiwis should get plenty of metres and go-forward out of their big men.

Weaknesses: The warm-up loss to Australia revealed a number of chinks in the New Zealand armour.

Johnson’s fifth tackle plays have been criticised heavily. Rightfully so too; the flamboyant number 7 struggled to kick in general play, and often tried to force the issue with last tackle attacking raids that his outside men weren’t on board with.

Opposition teams will be wise to exploit the weak defence of Kenny-Dowall’s right edge (made worse with Simon Mannering’s withdrawal from the tournament), while the Kiwis back three might also struggle to gain yards deep in their own half.

Look out for Kidwell opting for young gun Te Maire Martin rather than the ineffective Lewis Brown in the utility role.

Discipline is probably worth a mention here too.

Star Turn: One of the standouts in the Kiwis warm up game was Martin Taupau. Coming off the bench, the Manly powerhouse had 129 metres for 10 carries to go with five tackle busts, to easily be New Zealand’s best on the night. Coming off the bench gives Taupau an opportunity to make a seriously meaningful impact.

Odds: $4 is the best offer on NZ, from Ladbrokes.

Predicted Finish: The Kiwis haven’t always travelled to the UK well. Most recently they lost a bilateral series in 2015. They’re also still familiarising themselves with a new coaching structure, as well as missing key players (Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Mannering). They might struggle to make the final this year. 3rd.

England

Strengths: New coach Wayne Bennet has a tricky task ensuring his team are equipped to compete with the Kangaroos and Kiwis. It’s made manageable playing on home soil. It’s made believable thanks to the powerful forward pack he has at his disposal. Josh Hodgson, Sam and George Burgess, James Graham and Elliot Whitehead all NRL-experienced, and all (save for George maybe) are coming off excellent seasons.

Weaknesses: Gareth Widdop’s poor year in the NRL this season could worry the hosts, however, a bigger worry is probably the lack of big game experience. They haven’t made many tournament finals of late and gave up a late last minute try to the Kiwis in the most recent World Cup. The lack of experience and big game mettle could hurt them in the key stages.

Star Turn: Take away injury and suspension, and Canberra rake Hodgson may have been the first English winner of the NRL’s prestigious Dally M Medal this season. As it was, Hodgson finished eight points behind the winners but was arguably more influential for his team’s run to the finals.

Odds: $5.50 looks great money from Bet365. LuxBet also has an option on an Australia / England final at an attractive $2.30.

Predicted Finish: 2nd.

Scotland

Strengths: The ultimate underdogs will struggle to win a game in their first ever Four Nations. The squad looks too light on paper to scare any of the three heavyweights. If they are to get anywhere near, they’ll need the kicking game of former Man of Steel, Danny Brough, or the NRL expertise of Aitken, Coote, Douglas and Linnet.

Weaknesses: Not so much of a weakness as a simple reality – they are playing the three best nations in world rugby league.

Star Turn: Lachlan Coote isn’t in the powerful mould of Inglis, nor does he have the speed of a James Tedesco, but he is very clever. Essentially, he’s another half. With a tremendous short kicking game and an unparalleled rugby league brain, the Cowboys number is a tremendous boost to the tournament rookies.

Odds: Not really worth mentioning, but you’ll get 500/1 at most bookies.

Predicted Finish: Can’t see them winning a game. Last.

Four Nations kicks off this Friday, October 28th.

Rugby Union Championship: Where to Find Some Value this Weekend

Grab yourself a pint, pick a side and get ready for some serious rugby betting action this weekend as four of the best Union-playing nations in the world battle for supremacy. The latest Rugby Union Championship action gets underway on October 8, and will see South Africa and New Zealand duke it out in Durban, while Argentina and Australia entertain at Twickenham.

As is often the case when these four rugby powerhouses meet, anything can happen. Indeed, ahead of what will inevitably be a physically taxing game against South Africa, New Zealand’s head coach Steve Hansen has made four main changes. With Waisake Naholo back from injury (for a fourth time), Hansen is hoping the Fiji-born winger can turn on the afterburners and expose a potentially sluggish South African defensive line.

South Africa vs. New Zealand Betting Preview

Aside from bringing in Naholo to replace Julian Savea, Hansen is keeping his backline much the same, which seems to be a wise decision given how powerful it looked in the All Blacks 31-17 win over Argentina last week. Up the front, Matt Todd, Sam Whitelock and Jerome Kaino will all make a return to the starting line-up which should give New Zealand some much needed strength and experience.

While South Africa will want to try and ignore their 38% win ratio against New Zealand (35 wins from 93 matches), it’s hard to see how Allister Coetzee’s men get it done in Durban. Yes, home field advantage will certainly help. Yes, the Boks looked impressive as they beat Australia 18-10. But, with New Zealand enjoying a 16-game winning streak – a streak which includes a recent 41-13 win over South Africa – it’s hard to see how the Springboks get it done.

Sifting through the latest odds, 1/5 on a New Zealand victory is about as good as you’re going to get (Ladbrokes odds are slightly shorter at 1/6). However, if you’re willing to look beyond the obvious outrights, the following options should offer some added value this weekend; especially if you’re inclined to side with the experts and back a New Zealand win.

Ladbrokes:

Naholo or Dagg to score the first try = 9/2

New Zealand to win by 20 points or more = 5/2

New Zealand to win by 25 points or more = 9/2

Bet365:

Team with the highest scoring half: Africa = 3/1 – New Zealand 1/4

Bryan Habana to score first = 11/1

South Africa to score first and lose = 13/8

SkyBet:

New Zealand to win with -12.0 handicap = 10/11

Match to end in a draw = 25/1

South Africa first half/New Zealand win = 6/1

Argentina vs. Australia Betting Preview

In the weekend’s other Rugby Union Championship match, Argentina will look to bounce back from a defeat to New Zealand and clinch a victory against Australia. By Aussie standards, the Wallabies’ recent run has been poor. A 3-0 whitewash against England earlier in the year, and just two wins from five Rugby Union Championship matches this season has put the pressure on coach Michael Cheika.

Age is certainly an issue for Australia which has forced Cheika to enact a major shakeup. When the side runs out against Argentina on Saturday, just seven players from the 2015 World Cup final will be on display. This kind of instability is always dangerous, and Argentina is a side that always poses a threat.

Essentially what this match comes down to is quality versus determination. Although Australia might not be at their peak, the pedigree speaks for itself, and that’s made them the betting favourites at 4/11 with SkyBet. Of course, a neutral venue and a touch of inexperience possible in certain areas for Australia, things could get tricky if the game wears on with little action. Indeed, this could be Argentina’s best opportunity to grind out a win for some time.

At present the odds makers at Ladbrokes and SkyBet seem to agree that 9/4 is the right line for an Argentina upset, while bet365 is currently running at 12/5. If we were to stick our necks on the line and pick two winners this weekend, it’s hard to see past the favourites. However, with changes seemingly the order of the day for New Zealand and Australia, there could be space for the underdogs to sneak in and steal the plaudits.

Super Rugby Round 14 Results

Round 10 was always going to feature some riveting Rugby with the top of the conference New Zealand duel expected to grab most of the headlines.  However, it was the performances of the Blues and the Reds that surprised most and grabbed plenty of newspaper space.

Here’s the mashup from Super Rugby’s Round 14 Results

Blues (23) v Bulls (18) 

The leadership struggle between private investors and the Auckland Rugby Football Union at the Blues took a back seat to the footy action on Friday night as the Blues were able to hold on for win number three of 2015.

An understandably dismal crowd saw quality individual tries from Lolagi Visinia and George Moala get the better off the Bulls rolling mauls and a quality individual performance by Jan Serfontein.  The pieces of back magic gave the Blues a five point win and gave a hint of what the Blues could be capable of if they were led well and governed by strong administration.

The third win at Eden Park means respite for Blues fans, and possibly points to some 2016 magic at the home of New Zealand rugby.  Considering two of the wins have come against the Bulls and the Brumbies, the 2015 season will always be an enigma.

Youngsters Blake Gibson, Akira Ioane, lock William Lloyd and halfback Jamison Gibson-Park all took their chance to shine for the hosts.

Blues: Tries – L.Visinia, G.Moala, Pen – I.West 3, Con – I.West 2

Bulls: Tries – J.Serfontein 2, Pen – H.Pollard 2, Con – H.Pollard

Reds (46) v Rebels (29)

The Reds got win number three of 2015, shocking the Rebels at home with a deadly five try burst in the second half at Suncorp.  The Reds, now, might just be the most unfancied opponents, as playoff contenders will view the Queensland outfit as banana skin foes.  The Reds’ final two games of the season come against the Chiefs and the Waratahs – they could have a big influence on the final standings.

The win means the hire of former Wallabies coach John Connolly paid instant dividends for the Reds who put together their best effort of the season, despite trailing by 11 after just 36 minutes.  However, the second half was full of quality from Lachie Turner and Liam Gill in particular, but also a solid effort from young Jack McIntyre at fly half.

As much as the backs benefited on the scoresheet there were plenty of bumslaps for a forward pack that dominated the Rebels tight five.  Led by lock Rob Simmons the Reds back men were worthy recipients of plenty of praise.

The loss is a major blow for the Rebels playoffs chances, now six points outside the top 6.

Reds: Tries – R.Simmons, J.McIntyre, L.Turner 2. C.Feauai-Sautia, L.Gill, Pen – J.O’Connor 2, Con – J.O’Connor 5

Rebels: Tries – S.Naivalu 2, D.Shipperley, L.Jones, Pen – M.Harris, Con – M.Harris 3

Hurricanes (22) v Chiefs (18)

The Chiefs were left to rue a controversial TMO decision in the final stages as they lost to the Hurricanes 22-18 in Wellington.  An undermanned Chiefs side missing a host of players and then losing two locks inside they first half were brave and perhaps deserved more out of the top of the NZ conference match.

The controversial incident came in the closing stages as the Chiefs were camped in the Hurricanes 22.  Replacement halfback Augustine Pulu snuck out from the back of the ruck to score a potential game winner but the TMO ruled a knock on in the ruck and called the play back.  In fairness the knock on was courtesy of Hurricanes hands in the ruck and should have been a penalty to the Chiefs.  They deserved the chance to tap that penalty and look for a match winner but the decision went against them.

Ma’a Nonu scored a double for the Hurricanes in an accomplished performance.  He lost midfield partner Conrad Smith but made the most of breaks from the Savea brothers and displayed super handling to score his five pointers.  He was one of only a few bright spots for a Hurricanes team that were down a gear from when Beauden Barrett plays, and one that struggled to take advantage of a numerical advantage when Liam Squire was binned.

Elsewhere, James Broadhurst and Brad Webber continued to press their All Black claims with fine efforts.

Hurricanes: Tries – M.Nonu 2, A.Savea, Pen – J.Marshall, Con – J.Marshall 2

Chiefs: Tries – C. Ngatai, S.Cane, Pen – D.McKenzie 2, Con – D.McKenzie

Waratahs (33) v Sharks (18)

The Sharks lost their sixth match in a row and helped the Waratahs to top of the Australian conference and second overall at Allianz Stadium.

A disappointing fixture saw plenty of clumsiness, plenty of errors and ultimately another Sharks loss – equalling their work streak in 19 years of Super Rugby.

They had their opportunities to win this one, especially when Francois Steyn scored to make the score 20-18 with a quarter of the match remaining.  But Bernard Foley’s converted try made it impossible and inflated the scoreline in the Waratahs favour.

The Waratahs will be concerned about their 12 handling errors and the fact that they conceded 18 turnovers.  Those worries may be cancelled out by the realisation that they have one of the most damaging ball runners in the competition in the form of  Rugby League convert Taqele Naiyaravoro who scored his fourth try of the campaign.

Waratahs: Tries – A.Ashley-Cooper, T.Naiyaravoro, B.Foley, Pen – B.Foley 4, Con – B.Foley 3

Sharks: Tries – O.Ndungane, F.Steyn, Pen – F.Steyn 2, Con – F.Steyn

Lions (20) v Brumbies (30)

Six Super Rugby points during a difficult tour to South Africa is a decent return for the Brumbies who grabbed five of them in a win over the Lions on Sunday morning.

The bonus point win courtesy of four tries to two keeps the Brumbies in the hunt for a home semi-final (the Hurricanes a 14 points clear with a game in hand and the race is essentially one for second place).  It’s the second time in succession the Brumbies have grabbed a win in Johannesburg, and helps atones for last weeks shocker against the Stormers.

Defence was again critical for the Brumbies.  They have conceded less than 200 points in their 13 games, and in this fixture were able to support the defence with some devastating attack.  Tevita Kuridrani, Christian Lealiifano and Joe Tomane were the best for the ACT side, while the Lions got plenty of work out of flanker Jaco Kriel.

Lions: Tries – J.Kriel, A.Coetzee, Pen – E.Jantjies, R.Combrinck, Con – E.Jantjies, J.van der Walt

Brumbies: Tries – T.Kuridrani, I.Vaea, C.Lealiifano, J.Tomane, Pen – C.Lealiifano, J.Mogg, Con – C.Lealiifano 2

Cheetahs (24) v Highlanders (45)

The Highlanders scored a bonus pint win over the Lions in Bloemfontein to make it three New Zealand teams in the top six.  Much like last week a destructive first half saw the Highlanders run out to a 26-3 lead, and unlike last week this time they were able to build on it and win crucial competition points.

The seven try to three win was full of quality running footy in nice conditions at Free State Stadium.  Rugby League convert Ryan Tongia scored two well taken tries, as did Aaron Smith. Ben Smith, Patrick Osbourne and the prolific Gareth Evans also got on the scoreboard as the Highlanders moved to 5th on the Super Rugby table.

The final scoreline has a hint of competitiveness to it, but that wasn’t the case as all of the Cheetahs were scored late in a consolation mould.  The respectability of the scoreboard however won’t do anything to improve the mood of the Cheetahs, nor do they get any competition points for their efforts.  They remain last in the South African conference.

Cheetahs: Tries – R.Benjamin,C Wegner, F.Venter, Pen – F.Brummer, Con – F.Brummer 3

Highlanders: Tries – R.Tongia 2, A.Smith 2, P.Osborne, G.Evans, B.Smith, Con – L.Sopoaga 4, M.Banks

Aviva Premiership – Last Fixture Preview

In the final round of fixtures for the regular Premiership season, there’s still much to play for. Most eyes will be focussed on the tussle for the remaining two play-off spots though, with just a point separating the Tigers, Chiefs and Saracens.

Tigers v Saints – 15:30

Saints have top spot already secured, but Leicester Tigers still have a lot of work to do if they want to join them in the play-offs.

A bonus point win is the only way Tigers can guarantee their place, with Exeter Chiefs and Saracens very much hot on their tails with vastly superior score differences. It’s certainly a challenge for the Tigers, who might be hoping the Saints will take their foot of the gas with little to play for.

Best Bet: Northampton Saints +9 Handicap – 7/4 at William Hill

Chiefs v Sharks – 15:30

Exeter Chiefs need to match or better Saracens’ result on Saturday if they are to hold on to their play-off position. Unfortunately, with the Saracens facing a woeful London Welsh side that has picked up just one point this season, it looks like the Chiefs will have to earn a bonus point win over seventh-place Sale Sharks. They may also have to register a huge win too if Saracens let loose on the Welsh, with Chiefs holding a score difference just three better than Saracens, with the pair level on points. However, if the Saracens do better Exeter’s result, the Chiefs will have to then hope they close the one-point deficit on Tigers, who face league leaders, Saints.

Best Bet: Exeter Chiefs -14 Handicap – Evens at SkyBet

Falcons v Harlequins – 15:30

Newcastle are set to ring the changes on Saturday, with neither side having much to play for.

The Falcons are stuck in a disappointing 11th place, while Quins are eighth and would need to make up a huge score difference to climb any higher in the table.

Best Bet: Harlequins to win – 17/10 at bet365

Bath v Gloucester – 15:30

Only pride is at stake in this West Country derby between Bath and Gloucester.

Bath have second-place secured and will have an eye on next week’s play-off, while Gloucester will likely end the season in ninth unless they can close a two-point deficit on the Harlequins above them.

Will Bath secure local bragging rights against the European Challenge Cup winners?

Best Bet: Gloucester +13 Handicap – 4/1 at Ladbrokes

Irish v Wasps – 15:30

A point will be enough to guarantee a top six finish for the Wasps and secure a position in the Champions Cup next season. They might not even need that though, with their nearest competitors, Sale Sharks, requiring a big victory away in Exeter.

Best Bet: London Irish +9 Handicap – 10/11 at William Hill

Welsh v Saracens – 15:30

Saracens are on the hunt for blood against long-since relegated London Welsh, who have picked up just one point all season. The Saracens know that they need to get a better result than Tigers, or outscore the Chiefs and claim into the play-off places. Can Saracens complete a demolition job at the Kassam Stadium to round-off Welsh’s miserable season?

Best Bet: London Welsh +47 Handicap – Evens at bet365

Aviva Premiership – Saracens v Chiefs – Preview

In the final fixture of the weekend, fourth-place Saracens welcome a Chiefs’ side, who are just one position and three points beneath them, to Allianz Park at 14:00 (BST) in what should be an all-out battle for a Premiership semi-final spot.

A win for Saracens would secure their semi-final place, while, on the other hand, a Chiefs’ win would put them in pole position for a first ever taste of the play-offs and set up an epic finale to the Premiership season next week. It really is all to play for.

Tigers’ victory over Wasps on Saturday all-but secured their own place in the top four, and now Saracens have the chance to do the same on home turf.

However, if Exeter Chiefs are to secure a surprise victory, they would go into the final week of fixtures needing to simply match Saracens final result – although they do face bottom-of-the-table Welsh – meaning Chiefs would still probably have to beat the Sharks in their own tie.

The Chiefs did manage to beat Saracens in their last league encounter in November, but subsequently lost their two more recent meetings in the LV= Cup.

Neither side enter this fixture in good form, with the pair both losing their last two matches. But with Saracens’ two victories over the Chiefs in the LV= Cup already this year, they should be the more confident side.

Best Bet: Exeter Chiefs +10 Handicap – Evens at Stan James

Team News

Saracens will be without Billy Vunipola and Brad Barritt for this vital contest, with the pair both out with knocks. Jackson Wray and Chris Wyles will deputise.

For Exeter Chiefs, Henry Slade will move in to centre to replace Jack Nowell, while Gareth Steenson will start at fly-half. Ben White returns from injury and will take his place in the back-row, and Luke Cowan-Dickie will be given the nod as hooker. There’s also a place for academy graduate Max Bodilly, who is included in a Premiership squad for the first-time.

Saracens: Goode, Ashton, Bosch, Wyles, Strettle, Hodgson, Wigglesworth, M. Vunipola, George, Du Plessis, Kruis, Itoje, Brown, Burger, Wray.

Replacements: Brits, Gill, Johnston, Hargreaves, Joubert, De Kock, Farrell, Tompkins.

Chiefs: McGuigan, Whitten, Slade, Hill, Jess, Steenson, Chudley; Moon, Cowan-Dickie, Francis, Mumm, Lees, Ewers, White, Waldrom.

Replacements: Yeandle, Rimmer, Brown, Welch, Horstmann, Lewis, Vainikolo, Bodilly.